Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[infofront]

CCMF

[JorgeStolfi]

"After Wall St invests in bitcoins, ...  It will be even more difficult to adjust for people at bitcointalk.org, who have been following a set of electronic tokens that were considered a waste of electricity, but which are now listed on Bloomberg as a new asset class and which the People's Republic of China is failing in its efforts to destroy even with full government support."

I don't see Wall Street investing in bitcoins yet.

Bitcoin funds like SecondMarket's BIT and Pantera PBP are ventures that allow Wall Street types to skim off fees and possibly other gains from people who want to invest in bitcoins.  In these ventures, the random Joes who put money in the fund take all the risk of bitcoin's price falling, while the fund managers have guaranteed profit whatever happens to it.

The Fortress group just swapped their direct investment in bitcoins, that was a red stain in their quarterly reports, by a stake in Pantera's fund management company.

Bitpay and exchanges also have attracted the attention of investors, for the same reason: they are not investment in bitcoin, but in businesses that make money out of people who use, speculate with, or invest in bitcoin.

But of course those companies will make more profit if more random Joes are convinced to use or invest in bitcoin.  And those people who already have big hoards of bitcoin want the price to go up, which will only happen if more people buy it. Hence all the marketing hype...

As for China, their Central Bank does not care about bitcoin since it now cannot be used for commerce or finance.  But apparently the government is still worried about the exchanges being used for illegal payments, hence the decision to cut their easy money input/output channels (banks and payment processors).

[zby]

Looks like some serious shorting going on - the sum of swaps on finex is 9.5K (if I remember well yesterday it was 8.5 then 9 then again 8.5).

[keithers]

Made a small step in the right direction this morning...  the prices have been relatively steady over the past few days, so we are probably due some more volatility around the corner...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

I forgot, real life doesn't ever interrupt your finance orientated existence out on Vulcan does it Rex.

Hey, I resemble that remark.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

The price rises nicely and steadily, but Bitfinex sentiment Index suddenly turned bearish (it has been bullish almost all the time)

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

what do you guys think? Why be more bearish now than yesterday or two days ago? I was actually becoming optimistic about this recent price raise. Are we for some nasty surprise?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Looks like some serious shorting going on - the sum of swaps on finex is 9.5K (if I remember well yesterday it was 8.5 then 9 then again 8.5).

Exactly, I just commented about it. Seem surprising to me - why shorting now, not a couple days before?

[podyx]

Looks like some serious shorting going on - the sum of swaps on finex is 9.5K (if I remember well yesterday it was 8.5 then 9 then again 8.5).

Exactly, I just commented about it. Seem surprising to me - why shorting now, not a couple days before?

People still think bitcoin will go to 0

Why would anybody sell at 440 if they can sell at 460?

[derpinheimer]

Looks like some serious shorting going on - the sum of swaps on finex is 9.5K (if I remember well yesterday it was 8.5 then 9 then again 8.5).

Exactly, I just commented about it. Seem surprising to me - why shorting now, not a couple days before?

Doesnt seem surprising to me. The price is up a bit, and not with that much volume, so its a "safe" time to short.

[cbeast]

Looks like some serious shorting going on - the sum of swaps on finex is 9.5K (if I remember well yesterday it was 8.5 then 9 then again 8.5).

Exactly, I just commented about it. Seem surprising to me - why shorting now, not a couple days before?

Doesnt seem surprising to me. The price is up a bit, and not with that much volume, so its a "safe" time to short.

That's just what "they" want you to think.

[aminorex]

I don't see Wall Street investing in bitcoins yet.

Bitcoin funds like SecondMarket's BIT and Pantera PBP are ventures that allow Wall Street types to skim off fees and possibly other gains from people who want to invest in bitcoins.  In these ventures, the random Joes who put money in the fund take all the risk of bitcoin's price falling, while the fund managers have guaranteed profit whatever happens to it.

You really need a primer in how the finance world is structured, Jorge.  I recommend Veale, "Stocks Bonds Options Futures".  (While I am at it, many of the forum posters would probably be interested in Kuznetsov, "The Complete Guide to Capital Markets for Quantitative Professionals", which was my vademecum during my first month working at a fixed income fund.)

Being on "Wall St" (which is really midtown now, and has been for about 50 years or so) it is clear to me that you are describing sell side business operations.  There are two primary categories of participants in securities markets:  The sell side and the buy side.  Wall St. is in bitcoin in a very small way.  Some funds are buying mined coins on contract.  Lots of people on the street hold in personal accounts.  Most lines of business are oriented towards rent-seeking and tightly managed risk.  I'm sure that some market makers are looking at providing btc options and futures, but it will be slow in maturing.  In terms of mainline buy side participation, that's very limited, and mostly in private capital accounts.  None of these will make big splashes, because they are smart money, and they know better.  Retail offerings will come from sell siders creating product, and that will be dumb money, and it will make a big splash.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Looks like some serious shorting going on - the sum of swaps on finex is 9.5K (if I remember well yesterday it was 8.5 then 9 then again 8.5).

Exactly, I just commented about it. Seem surprising to me - why shorting now, not a couple days before?

Doesnt seem surprising to me. The price is up a bit, and not with that much volume, so its a "safe" time to short.

I am personally not buying yet - but this rise seems more convincing to me that previous attempts at a rally. True, the volume is still low, but bitcoin supply on exchanges also seems low. Of course shorting two days ago would be in hinsight much worse decision that shorting today. I just meant that I am much more bullish today than 2 days ago - but still not bullish enough to actually buy

[kooke]

CCMF

That doesn't look like a very safe train to hop onto.

[600watt]

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/04/moral-police-your-checking-account-chase-bank-shuts-down-accounts-adult


this is bullish. the porn industry may be forced out of traditional banking....


pornstars ! the bitcoin community welcomes you. fuck the bankers. not literally, though.

[igorr]

It's just what happens when demand outstrips supply.

every day is generated about 4500 new bitcoins, or, for 30 days 135000 new bitcoin,
at the current exchange rate it costs over 60 million dollars,
but who will to pay for it ?

[edwardspitz]

The price rises nicely and steadily, but Bitfinex sentiment Index suddenly turned bearish (it has been bullish almost all the time)

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

what do you guys think? Why be more bearish now than yesterday or two days ago? I was actually becoming optimistic about this recent price raise. Are we for some nasty surprise?

If you are expecting a rise you could be in for a surprise I think. I do not follow the Bitfinex BSI indicator so I don't know how it usually behaves, but I remember that Fonzie was joking that the BSI turning bearish could indicate that it was a good time to buy. But seriously I think Bitfinex BSI indicator is some sort of RSI indicator, so when the market is overbought the BSI will turn bearish and when the market is oversold it will turn bullish. I wouldn't rely on it  

Edit: Spelling

[derpinheimer]

Oke I'm changing to bearish. This whale is just flipping his coins for $10-20 profit, not real buys.

(unless $465 gets eaten, then I wont know what to think)

[aminorex]

every day is generated about 4500 new bitcoins, or, for 30 days 135000 new bitcoin,
but who will to pay for it ?

how many million ( or billion??? ) dose the FED print daily? who pays for that? oh ya it come out of thin air, that's good!

Coins mined today are either pre-sold on contract or being hodl'd for a non-bankrupting price.

[igorr]

It's just what happens when demand outstrips supply.

every day is generated about 4500 new bitcoins, or, for 30 days 135000 new bitcoin,
but who will to pay for it ?

how many million ( or billion??? ) dose the FED print daily? who pays for that? oh ya it come out of thin air, that's good!

135000 new bitcoin every month x  current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it with real money. But who ?