Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

The only reason to buy right now is if you think supply is going to dry up quickly. Otherwise tomorrow, next week or next month will suffice. You .might even get a discount.

I  just don't think supply is likely to dry up quickly, but I am willing to listen to arguments to the contrary.

I think SecondMarket is buying... will be interesting to check their holdings tomorow Or someone else, who is going long.

We saw this same whale 2 days ago but there was no reported increase by SecondMarket. I guess if they're buying just to increase their available stash without actually having a customer buying it then we wouldn't know.

[billyjoeallen]

The only reason to buy right now is if you think supply is going to dry up quickly. Otherwise tomorrow, next week or next month will suffice. You .might even get a discount.

I  just don't think supply is likely to dry up quickly, but I am willing to listen to arguments to the contrary.

I think SecondMarket is buying... will be interesting to check their holdings tomorow Or someone else, who is going long.

You do realize that it takes ~1.62 Million $/day to keep prices stable @ $450, right? How long can 2nd market or anyone else keep that up on their own?

Not all new coins enter the market, but old coins do enter and so over time it should roughly even out. It could just as easily be someone who sold at $500, $550 or higher buying back their own coins.  I'm looking for evidence of NEW buyers, and so far I haven't found any.

[Davyd05]

I may sound like a broken record as I keep saying I'll deposit money and don't mostly due to having satisfied my short range target btc holding with a 540 Avg buy in price. Goxxin and China bans didn't surprise me as I was fielding these questions from friends in November. I know not everyone has great foresight but...to get caught up in the political and monetary motivations of a Communist country that isn't really communist, kind've shocks me. I mean they are trying to ban the internet before it becomes the internet, as we know bitcoin is currently used mainly as a payment system / speculative play, but can become something so much more then this and it is silly to act like it can be stopped cause people fear financial risks that their populations speculators are taking in the early stages, especially when we have bigger criminals robbing us on the daily.

Also in some sense Bitcoin / a Blockchain embodies the idea of communism ( in the sense that we all help to sustain or maintain the blockchain p2p ). Makes me laugh that China probably is more afraid of bitcoin damaging the USD $'s global value in the coming years, and they got all that American Debt they need to offload first.

[aminorex]

now that the wall is gone, should go back to huobi + 10 on stamp.

[Adrian-x]

The only reason to buy right now is if you think supply is going to dry up quickly. Otherwise tomorrow, next week or next month will suffice. You .might even get a discount.

I  just don't think supply is likely to dry up quickly, but I am willing to listen to arguments to the contrary.

I think SecondMarket is buying... will be interesting to check their holdings tomorow Or someone else, who is going long.

You do realize that it takes ~1.62 Million $/day to keep prices stable @ $450, right? How long can 2nd market or anyone else keep that up on their own?

Not all new coins enter the market, but old coins do enter and so over time it should roughly even out. It could just as easily be someone who sold at $500, $550 or higher buying back their own coins.  I'm looking for evidence of NEW buyers, and so far I haven't found any.

Good point, by that logic that is less than 50 coins a day per exchange on average  

[adamstgBit]

cheap coins?

[billyjoeallen]

The only reason to buy right now is if you think supply is going to dry up quickly. Otherwise tomorrow, next week or next month will suffice. You .might even get a discount.

I  just don't think supply is likely to dry up quickly, but I am willing to listen to arguments to the contrary.

I think SecondMarket is buying... will be interesting to check their holdings tomorow Or someone else, who is going long.

You do realize that it takes ~1.62 Million $/day to keep prices stable @ $450, right? How long can 2nd market or anyone else keep that up on their own?

Not all new coins enter the market, but old coins do enter and so over time it should roughly even out. It could just as easily be someone who sold at $500, $550 or higher buying back their own coins.  I'm looking for evidence of NEW buyers, and so far I haven't found any.

Good point, by that logic that is less than 50 coins a day per exchange on average  

It wouldn't matter if it was only 5 coins. Fiat flow in has to be greater than fiat flow out for price to rise. Chinese fiat flow has slowed to a trickle with nothing obvious to replace it yet. The Chinese don't have to dump coins for the price to drop. They just have to stop buying them, and they ARE reducing purchases.

[Adrian-x]

cheap coins?

This will be so true at the end of 2016 it will be funny to read.

[KFR]

cheap coins?

This will be so true at the end of 2016 it will be funny to read.

+1

As for right now, we definitely need to see another significant spike down before we see a spike up IMHO.

[Adrian-x]

It wouldn't matter if it was only 5 coins. Fiat flow in has to be greater than fiat flow out for price to rise. Chinese fiat flow has slowed to a trickle with nothing obvious to replace it yet. The Chinese don't have to dump coins for the price to drop. They just have to stop buying them, and they ARE reducing purchases.

OK cheaper coins coming in, but not that I have $22,000 per day to invest, but that is not a lot of cash globally needed to come in to the average exchange to keep demand higher than production.
I'm banking supply dries up when AM gen3 chips are implemented and push up that difficulty.

[roslinpl]

Explanation

I see a train coming too but dunno how far it is.
Anyway ... $420 will be a day in the sky Just to celebrate 420.

[billyjoeallen]

It wouldn't matter if it was only 5 coins. Fiat flow in has to be greater than fiat flow out for price to rise. Chinese fiat flow has slowed to a trickle with nothing obvious to replace it yet. The Chinese don't have to dump coins for the price to drop. They just have to stop buying them, and they ARE reducing purchases.

OK cheaper coins coming in, but not that I have $22,000 per day to invest, but that is not a lot of cash globally needed to come in to the average exchange to keep demand higher than production.
I'm banking supply dries up when AM gen3 chips are implemented and push up that difficulty.

It's not much cash at all, but it still has to come from somewhere. I can think of dozens of possibilities, but no probabilities.  Buying AM gen3 chips doesn't make any sense to me with BTC prices so much lower now than the cost of production. You'd get a much better ROI by buying coins themselves.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

The 30 min chart on Stamp is looking like a downward red staircase today...as much as I like cheap coins, I am anxious for a turnaround.

zoom out to the 6hr chart. To me it just looks like a series of lower highs and lower lows since January. And I see no signs of a turnaround any time soon. (not that bitcoin needs a reason).

From that chart it looks to me like we would at least need to re-test the 330-340 range on stamp before seriously turning around.

by the way, does anyone know the price that the Winklebros bought in at?

*EDIT* I drew some lines 

[adamstgBit]

its already turned around its just not Obvious yet.

price is NOT high, and its not going lower.

Winklebros bought a long time ago, we were in the teens i think

[billyjoeallen]

The 30 min chart on Stamp is looking like a downward red staircase today...as much as I like cheap coins, I am anxious for a turnaround.

zoom out to the 6hr chart. To me it just looks like a series of lower highs and lower lows since January. And I see no signs of a turnaround any time soon. (not that bitcoin needs a reason).

From that chart it looks to me like we would at least need to re-test the 330-340 range on stamp before seriously turning around.

by the way, does anyone know the price that the Winklebros bought in at?

They claim they started buying in high double digits. I don't think there is a whole lot of respect for them on Wall Street and I doubt any major players are going to jump in until it's more obvious that Bitcoin is a self-sustaining phenomenon.   

[adamstgBit]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=588252.0

good stuff

[billyjoeallen]

its already turned around its just not Obvious yet.

VERY not obvious. at all. not even a little bit.

[Walsoraj]

http://www.theverge.com/2014/4/28/5660376/dogecoin-nascar-photos

[solex]

The 30 min chart on Stamp is looking like a downward red staircase today...as much as I like cheap coins, I am anxious for a turnaround.

zoom out to the 6hr chart. To me it just looks like a series of lower highs and lower lows since January. And I see no signs of a turnaround any time soon. (not that bitcoin needs a reason).

From that chart it looks to me like we would at least need to re-test the 330-340 range on stamp before seriously turning around.

by the way, does anyone know the price that the Winklebros bought in at?

They claim they started buying in high double digits. I don't think there is a whole lot of respect for them on Wall Street and I doubt any major players are going to jump in until it's more obvious that Bitcoin is a self-sustaining phenomenon.   

I recall a YT interview which gave the impression a lot of their buying was around $10 to $12.