Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CoinRocka]

  You're such a dung fly...  Bzz Bzz Bzzzzzz

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Krabby]

That is generally how it goes

[Nightowlace]

You want to give someone a heart attack? Have them download the bitcoins ticket app and then change it from USD to GBP when they aren't looking. #notcool

[Nightowlace]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

Yet here you are being all bearish.

[sonofliberty]

Dump will happen any minute now. I guarantee it.

[octaft]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets    (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets 
2016 - 2 million new wallets 
2017 - 4 million new wallets 
2018 - 8 million new wallets 
2019 - 16 million new wallets 
2020 - 32 million new wallets 
2021 - 64 million new wallets 
2022 - 128 million new wallets 
2023 - 256 million new wallets 

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth.  If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.


2024 - 512 million new wallets     
2025 - 1 billion new wallets 
2026 - 2 billion new wallets 
2027 - 4 billion new wallets 
2028 - 8 billion new wallets 
2029 - 16 billion new wallets 
2030 - 32 billion new wallets 
2031 - 64 billion new wallets 
2032 - 128 billion new wallets 
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

[JorgeStolfi]

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Does that mean that in 2033 every bitcoin user will own 2.56 billion wallets? Why would he need that? 


 

[adamstgBit]

are you a basic bitch?

[sonofliberty]

are you a basic bitch?

No.

[adamstgBit]

are you a basic bitch?

No.

Ah a crazy one!

[Krabby]

are you a basic bitch?

Yes.

[TeeBone]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.

When i see more ultrabulls becoming neutral (like BillyJ), and not yelling FUD at real, negative events....THAT will be bullish.  

[jonoiv]

Are we seeing now the lowest point in bitcoin price for the next 6 months?

Probably the highest point in the next 6months.

100% true, never again $ 500

that's right. And it's not gonna stay long at the 400 level

The price $ 450 will be halved, and after this comnig recovery price to $ 370, and again, again, again to zero.


View Screen Capture

LOL, thats 10, TEN times today you've posted that irrelevant chart.

How is it irrelevant ?  He has been posting it for months, and so far it's been accurate.  

[chessnut]

Dump will happen any minute now. I guarantee it.

just to get to 450, stamp would have to dump 2k coins, on a very quiet day.

[Krabby]

I can draw lines on a graph too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[chessnut]

Nice chart Krabby, I hadnt seen that one before.

this is my chart 

[JayJuanGee]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets    (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets 
2016 - 2 million new wallets 
2017 - 4 million new wallets 
2018 - 8 million new wallets 
2019 - 16 million new wallets 
2020 - 32 million new wallets 
2021 - 64 million new wallets 
2022 - 128 million new wallets 
2023 - 256 million new wallets 

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth.  If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.


2024 - 512 million new wallets     
2025 - 1 billion new wallets 
2026 - 2 billion new wallets 
2027 - 4 billion new wallets 
2028 - 8 billion new wallets 
2029 - 16 billion new wallets 
2030 - 32 billion new wallets 
2031 - 64 billion new wallets 
2032 - 128 billion new wallets 
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Dude... he heh he...          The "conservative" nature of my estimate would apply to the first few years, and mostly to the first 10 years, or at least until the market would become saturated in the mid 2020s at the latest.  Probably I should have clarified that a little better? 

 Nonetheless,  I thought that my explanation would have clarified that I was starting out conservative.. .but, apparently NOT... If I were to revise such estimate, then I would remove the years after 2026 b/c probably a different growth rate would apply at that time.  I would NOT expect continued exponential growth past the half way mark of market saturation (which would likely be around mid-2020s in that projection).

I kept the numbers going upward at the same doubling rate, merely to demonstrate their direction if we were to keep the same doubling projection, if the rate were to remain the same doubling, every year.... but we all know the population (and/or markets are NOT likely to continue to be able to absorb such growth rate... 

Hopefully this clarifies for you... even though, based on your response, I question whether you had truly attempted to grapple with the main point(s) that I was attempting to make in the post.

[jonoiv]

I can draw lines on a graph too.

yes the only difference is that yours are distorting the true figures.