Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Major asset manager Strive back on August 14, 2025 said MSTR was just one S&P 500 Index committee meeting away from entry, which has now already taken place. Many on Wall Street expect MicroStrategy (MSTR) to be announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, 2025 with a 96% likelihood Strategy will be in the September rebalance.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin?

If MSTR joins the S&P 500, it would boost institutional demand for Bitcoin by giving passive funds indirect exposure and potentially increasing the stock's price beyond Bitcoin's performance, leading to higher Bitcoin prices as the funds buy MSTR shares and potentially more capital flows into crypto. The inclusion would also symbolize the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Passive funds tracking the index would be forced to scoop up nearly 50 million shares, worth around $16 billion at current prices, according to an analysis by Stephens Inc. For Strategy's Saylor, whose relentless capital raising has funded a balance sheet holding roughly $70 billion in Bitcoin, the milestone would mean institutional validation of a strategy long dismissed by skeptics as reckless, while turning the likes of pension funds into indirect crypto holders in one fell swoop.

Plagiarism?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/bitcoin-faithful-bet-on-saylor-s-strategy-being-added-to-s-p-500

I think not. I would certainly hope offering publicly available information on a forum like this doesn't have to be accredited.   

It does, put it in quotes and drop a link right below it.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Major asset manager Strive back on August 14, 2025 said MSTR was just one S&P 500 Index committee meeting away from entry, which has now already taken place. Many on Wall Street expect MicroStrategy (MSTR) to be announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, 2025 with a 96% likelihood Strategy will be in the September rebalance.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin?

If MSTR joins the S&P 500, it would boost institutional demand for Bitcoin by giving passive funds indirect exposure and potentially increasing the stock's price beyond Bitcoin's performance, leading to higher Bitcoin prices as the funds buy MSTR shares and potentially more capital flows into crypto. The inclusion would also symbolize the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Passive funds tracking the index would be forced to scoop up nearly 50 million shares, worth around $16 billion at current prices, according to an analysis by Stephens Inc. For Strategy's Saylor, whose relentless capital raising has funded a balance sheet holding roughly $70 billion in Bitcoin, the milestone would mean institutional validation of a strategy long dismissed by skeptics as reckless, while turning the likes of pension funds into indirect crypto holders in one fell swoop.

Plagiarism?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/bitcoin-faithful-bet-on-saylor-s-strategy-being-added-to-s-p-500

I think not. I would certainly hope offering publicly available information on a forum like this doesn't have to be accredited.   

It does, put it in quotes and drop a link right below it.

I'll try to remember to do that.

[Hueristic]

Major asset manager Strive back on August 14, 2025 said MSTR was just one S&P 500 Index committee meeting away from entry, which has now already taken place. Many on Wall Street expect MicroStrategy (MSTR) to be announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, 2025 with a 96% likelihood Strategy will be in the September rebalance.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin?

If MSTR joins the S&P 500, it would boost institutional demand for Bitcoin by giving passive funds indirect exposure and potentially increasing the stock's price beyond Bitcoin's performance, leading to higher Bitcoin prices as the funds buy MSTR shares and potentially more capital flows into crypto. The inclusion would also symbolize the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Passive funds tracking the index would be forced to scoop up nearly 50 million shares, worth around $16 billion at current prices, according to an analysis by Stephens Inc. For Strategy's Saylor, whose relentless capital raising has funded a balance sheet holding roughly $70 billion in Bitcoin, the milestone would mean institutional validation of a strategy long dismissed by skeptics as reckless, while turning the likes of pension funds into indirect crypto holders in one fell swoop.

Plagiarism?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/bitcoin-faithful-bet-on-saylor-s-strategy-being-added-to-s-p-500

I think not. I would certainly hope offering publicly available information on a forum like this doesn't have to be accredited.   

It does, put it in quotes and drop a link right below it.

I'll try to remember to do that.

Go back and edit it.

[BTCETFInvestor]

"MicroStrategy (MSTR) seeks S&P 500 inclusion as a Bitcoin-focused company, holding 597,325 BTC with 19.7% annual yield.

Inclusion would trigger forced buying by index funds, injecting billions into MSTR and indirectly amplifying Bitcoin exposure for institutional investors.

As the first Bitcoin-treasury company in the index, MSTR could redefine institutional crypto adoption, though September 2025 risks historical price declines.

S&P 500 approval would institutionalize crypto exposure via a major equity index, potentially driving $120B in institutional Bitcoin demand."

► https://www.ainvest.com/news/microstrategy-500-inclusion-game-changer-bitcoin-exposure-institutional-capital-flow-2509/

[Biodom]

I don't think everyone knows the rules around here from the get go.
..I am glad that he/she/(bot?) cooperated...and no fuss, apparently.

[BTCETFInvestor]

I don't think everyone knows the rules around here from the get go.
..I am glad that he/she/(bot?) cooperated...and no fuss, apparently.

Correct!

[Biodom]

MSTR:

330 calls for sep 12 traded 12.7 thou contracts today
345 calls-15.4 thou
370-13K
700-4.4K contracts (lol)
Now, the most interesting "funny" trade (if the reported data I looked at is correct) is 800 and 810 contracts-13.3K (at 3c)  and 12.7K (also at 3c). Someone probably bought (opened) 800 and sold (wrote) 810.
If volatility spikes, they could start trading at a slight difference in price and, hence, profit to the buyer/writer who is probably one and the same entity.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[cAPSLOCK]

<snip>
But at our current point I am quite confused.  

<snip>Even in the presence of all these things... the cycle continues.

Bitcoin does not care.

I agree with the confusion part, not 100% agree with the second, but don't disagree either...it just remains to be seen.
Some guy (who speaks a bit like the "mad hatter" from "Alice in wonderland") proudly predicts MSTR bankruptcy scenario in 2026.

I don't buy it necessarily, but MSTR gyrations is something bitcoin would have to endure at some point.
It may be at least moderately likely that bitcoin would at some point undergo a secular bear market, but I don't envision this happening until 8-10 tril in market cap (or maybe even higher).

It seems that a lot of hodlers are uncertain about the state of the market rn.

Ah... well if your disagreement with part 2 is about the cycle...  well... I disagree with what I said as well.    Or a significant part of me does.

I think the cycle must continue to influence the price, but in less dominant ways at least eventually.  I have a hard time imagining this cycle having the same swings as the past ones.  But I have been anticipating us breaking out of that for quite a while now.  So I suppose I am hedging my position.

I am still (more quietly) a true believer in an S curve and amazingly even to me, do not think we have seen the real leg up yet.

Samson Mow talks about an "omega candle".  I think hes probably onto something.  We will see...

[cAPSLOCK]

Major asset manager Strive back on August 14, 2025 said MSTR was just one S&P 500 Index committee meeting away from entry, which has now already taken place. Many on Wall Street expect MicroStrategy (MSTR) to be announced as an addition to the S&P 500 on Friday, September 5, 2025 with a 96% likelihood Strategy will be in the September rebalance.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin?

If MSTR joins the S&P 500, it would boost institutional demand for Bitcoin by giving passive funds indirect exposure and potentially increasing the stock's price beyond Bitcoin's performance, leading to higher Bitcoin prices as the funds buy MSTR shares and potentially more capital flows into crypto. The inclusion would also symbolize the growing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Passive funds tracking the index would be forced to scoop up nearly 50 million shares, worth around $16 billion at current prices, according to an analysis by Stephens Inc. For Strategy's Saylor, whose relentless capital raising has funded a balance sheet holding roughly $70 billion in Bitcoin, the milestone would mean institutional validation of a strategy long dismissed by skeptics as reckless, while turning the likes of pension funds into indirect crypto holders in one fell swoop.

Plagiarism?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/bitcoin-faithful-bet-on-saylor-s-strategy-being-added-to-s-p-500

I think not. I would certainly hope offering publicly available information on a forum like this doesn't have to be accredited.  

It most certainly does.  We can be casual about it at times, but an editorial option with a link is different than a copypaste.

I see you took the advice from others...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.

What a legend 

Nah - just a person with patience and a vision...

Your vision (or would it be visions?) with bcash and bsv (ie bcash sv) did not go very well.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

The price is up nearly $4,000 in the last half a day and continues to rise. I like that… We seem to have broken the downtrend. There isn’t really any resistance between $113,500 and $117,000, so a move up from here would start to make this rally look pretty aggressive.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com