Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Trying to understand these charts:

Total Output Volume
"The total value of all transaction outputs per day. This includes coins which were returned to the sender as change."
http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume (Select 2 years, log maybe)

  Why is this number so constant from Jun/2013 to now, apart from the peak in Nov-Dec, when the value of 1 BTC
  has varied from 120$ to 800$ then 450$? In particular, there seems to be no change since late Jan/2014 to now.

You've been looking at bitcoin too long, Jorge.  Normal people don't consider variations in order of magnitude to be "no change".

"A chart showing miners revenue as percentage of the transaction volume."
http://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction-percent

  Does this chart mean that the "fee" for a bitcoin transaction is now about 5%?  (Presumably almost all of that is currently
  being paid indirectly by bitcoin users through mining "inflation"?  Like if the government printed more dollars to subsidize
  the credit card fees of US citizens?  )

No, it does not mean that.  That is an interpretation which you chose to apply.  It is a self-consistent interpretation, so it is not amenable to refutation, but it is also a whiggish one.

[JorgeStolfi]

Total Output Volume
"The total value of all transaction outputs per day. This includes coins which were returned to the sender as change."
http://blockchain.info/charts/output-volume (Select 2 years, log maybe)

  Why is this number so constant from Jun/2013 to now, apart from the peak in Nov-Dec, when the value of 1 BTC
  has varied from 120$ to 800$ then 450$? In particular, there seems to be no change since late Jan/2014 to now.

You've been looking at bitcoin too long, Jorge.  Normal people don't consider variations in order of magnitude to be "no change".

Are we looking at the same chart?  "Order of magnitude" should be 500'000 --> 5'000'000.  I see ~836'000 on ~Jan/20, ~840'000 on May/14.  Am I reading it wrong?

EDIT: using "7 days average".

[prophetx]

That is not a castle.


This is a castle:



Vlad the Impaler's 14th century castle in Romania. The inspiration for Count Dracula.

Currently up for sale. 

cool i'm down to organize a group buy lol

[prophetx]

Anybody have a clue on how to invest in bitpay?

1) take a bunch of money and put it in a big pile
2) call the number on their website, tell them how big is your pile
3) if the CEO makes lovey-dovey sounds, send money

then watch as they spend your money while you get squeezed down in another round while hoping that they go public some day but just get bought out by paypal

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YipYip]

Get ready for the next pump and dump.

No more margin trading by our asian overlords ....

The last 24 hour chart is so tight & awesome I have never seem bitcoin behave so calm

Its textbook consolidation with a minor uptrend ..if we get 3 weeks of this watch out as it is building for a squeeze play IMHO

[Davyd05]

A little bit of action on Houbi, unlike the straight lines on Bitstamp and BTC-e

I don't mind flat, the market needed a small breather.

[ChrisML]

from http://bitcoinowl.com/speculation-about-likely-range-future-btc-price-based-history

2 da moon.

Such wow. In the meantime, we just wait. 

[windjc]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[YipYip]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

NEWSFLASH

CHina = Irrelevant

[mooncake]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

The China bad news had been priced in. No more CNY into exchanges through bank deposit. Minor exchanges had closed. I can't think of any more China news worse than what we already knew, can you? If no more bad news, where will the price go?

[OldGeek]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

The China bad news had been priced in. No more CNY into exchanges through bank deposit. Minor exchanges had closed. I can't think of any more China news worse than what we already knew, can you? If no more bad news, where will the price go?

If the bots on Stamp and BTC-e are still programmed to follow Huobi, the price can certainly go down.

[edwardspitz]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

I agree with you. But the price could go up if the Chinese realize that they can't get their fiat out of the exchanges (I don't know if this is the case or how likely this is). But in that scenario prices should go up as they buy b/c. I think we will still follow China (even though they should be irrelevant imo).

[T.Stuart]

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

I agree with you. But the price could go up if the Chinese realize that they can't get their fiat out of the exchanges (I don't know if this is the case or how likely this is). But in that scenario prices should go up as they buy b/c. I think we will still follow China (even though they should be irrelevant imo).

I think the point is, how are they going to buy BTC (or keep buying it anyway) if they can't get money into the exchanges?

[cAPSLOCK]

I think the point is, how are they going to buy BTC (or keep buying it anyway) if they can't get money into the exchanges?

Well therein lies, imo, the secret.  They will buy it with goods and services.  There are just too may bitcoins under the control of Chinese people.  They might just start using it like money.

[JorgeStolfi]

The China bad news had been priced in. No more CNY into exchanges through bank deposit. Minor exchanges had closed. I can't think of any more China news worse than what we already knew, can you? If no more bad news, where will the price go?

We do not know how many coins the Chinese traders still have, in-exchange and off-exchange.  We do not know how much CNY can enter the exchanges. (The convenient channels have been blocked, but there are still some less convenient ones, and they may be enough for a few traders to move large amounts.)

Right now it seems that the Chinese traders too are uncertain about what the price will do.  Some traders probably dumped their coins and left the game, but many apparently are still there, waiting.  Volume is small compared to the good old days, but still large compared to the Western exchanges.  The latter still seem to track Huobi and OKCoin more than the other way around.

It seems likely that there will be further bad news, such as other exchanges closing, or the loss of some of those roundabout deposit channels.  However, in the short run those news may cause the price to go up rather than down, since they may create demand for BTC as a way to leave and/or continue speculating.  Eventually, however, more coins must move from the Chinese exchanges to the Western ones, so the price should go down.  The momentary dip on Apr/12, to 2230 CNY = 340 USD, shows how far down it could go.

PS. Note that the market does not react to "news", it reacts to facts (real or false) that it learns from the news...

[mooncake]

We do not know how many coins the Chinese traders still have, in-exchange and off-exchange.  We do not know how much CNY can enter the exchanges. (The convenient channels have been blocked, but there are still some less convenient ones, and they may be enough for a few traders to move large amounts.)

Right now it seems that the Chinese traders too are uncertain about what the price will do.  Some traders probably dumped their coins and left the game, but many apparently are still there, waiting.  Volume is small compared to the good old days, but still large compared to the Western exchanges.  The latter still seem to track Huobi and OKCoin more than the other way around.

It seems likely that there will be further bad news, such as other exchanges closing, or the loss of some of those roundabout deposit channels.  However, in the short run those news may cause the price to go up rather than down, since they may create demand for BTC as a way to leave and/or continue speculating.  Eventually, however, more coins must move from the Chinese exchanges to the Western ones, so the price should go down.  The momentary dip on Apr/12, to 2230 CNY = 340 USD, shows how far down it could go.

PS. Note that the market does not react to "news", it reacts to facts (real or false) that it learns from the news...

You are saying that the following may be potential bad news:
1. Other (Chinese) exchanges closing; and
2. Loss of roundabout deposit channels.

(1) can happen to small exchanges, as had happened to FXBTC. It is unlikely to happen to large exchanges, which are backed by large VC funding. If China bans exchanges or btc explicitly, then VC funding is irrelevant. But this is unlikely. Hence, (1) has little effect on price.
Most of the fund came from bank deposits. A smaller portion came from (2). (2) should have a larger impact on price than (1). Even so, it has been priced in to a large extent owning to the ban on bank deposit.

Please suggest worse potential news. Then we can analyse its impact on price. Thank you.

[rpietila]

Also the ones that forgo investing because it is "difficult" are the same group that tends to sell a majority of their collective coins anyway after the next major move (towards either direction  )

If you buy into Bitcoin despite the difficulties, you are much more probably still holding it 2 years from now, and a rich guy/gal.

The impact to USD/BTC (quoting Aminorex) is in BTC*d.  

[YogoH]

rpietila,

What percent of your net worth is in Crypto, PM, Real Estate, etc?

What percent do you recommend the average person to put into Crypto and PM?


Thanks for time and opinion.