Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

I would be very surprised to see flat like you drew those 'lines'.
Historic data say that the market should go down until it finds the real bottom and then rebound.

[1611355472]

1611355472

[1611355472]

1611355472

[1611355472]

1611355472

[1611355472]

1611355472

[MahaRamana]

Also this chart seems to say that the bitcoin system currently costs 30 USD per transaction:
https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction
The cost of running the system is currently hidden in the inflation caused by mining, but in the long run will have to be paid by users as transaction fees.  If the numbers above are correct, bitcoin will be inviable for payments below 1000 USD.

It's an compelling argument on the face of it, but the question is compared to what?
What is the transaction and system maintenance cost of a USD/GBP/EUR fiat transfer?

What is interesting is the marginal cost of a transaction, not the average.
In other words : how much does it cost for the system in place to generate one more transaction ?

[gizmoh]

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

You are in bulls territory, live with it, and parade only when the price is crashing 

[dreamspark]

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

Well don't use words like "inevitable crash" saying CCMF around here is just a buzz word, It doesn't mean we are inevitably crashing upwards. (though on a long term scale its probably true )

And at least chessnut posts some charts and reasons for saying that. If Im not mistaken you posted the other day crash of the century incoming when we were at $442...

[TERA]

Only uberbullish projections are allowed here.  Bearish projections and even completely neutral projectons will be met with a gauntlet of hostility and profanity. Meanwhile 1,000 wrong projections will be made each day by bulls and they will be perfectly acceptable and ignored. It's a double standard.

[TERA]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

[dreamspark]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Yeah why is that, fonzie and igoor and mah37 are all such rational posters.

[chessnut]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

not true. there are plenty of savage bears around here.

[niothor]

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

And from where are you pulling your predictions?

[mmitech]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

[TERA]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

There is a bit of volume on hoHBoy. About 14,000BTC within the past 3 hours.

[Davyd05]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Nice troll, currently in contention for the best of 2014'

[niothor]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

[Hunyadi]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Nice troll, currently in contention for the best of 2014'

 

[600watt]

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

 

[Kupsi]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

[niothor]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

If that includes the above mentioned "bears" , I don't even want to think how much we're going to wait for it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Kupsi]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

If that includes the above mentioned "bears" , I don't even want to think how much we're going to wait for it.

 

[oda.krell]

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.

It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.

I'm pretty much neutral on the question whether the bottom is in or not, but last year, July to be precise, saw a pitch perfect reversal that I picked up comparably easily (and remember making a number of, cautiously, bullish posts about).

This year, assuming the bottom is in fact in, looks much more restrained, bordering on timid, both in volume and price development. I'm sure tera will be quick to jump in pointing to the weekly averages that saw a bearish cross this time vs. no such thing happening last year.

Anyway, the tldr is: last year the bottom was followed by a 2 month period of stable, probably linear (how novel!) growth. This year's "bottom" is followed by sheer stagnation. What conclusion to draw from this is up to you.