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Question: 1/24 Closing Price:
<$32,000 - 19 (23.8%)
$32,000-$33,000 - 7 (8.8%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 2 (2.5%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 6 (7.5%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 11 (13.8%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 7 (8.8%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 6 (7.5%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 4 (5%)
$40,000-$41,000 - 2 (2.5%)
$41,000-$42,000 - 0 (0%)
>$42,000 - 15 (18.8%)
Total Voters: 80

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25070722 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
Tzupy
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May 16, 2014, 11:39:19 AM

My new view of the market:



I wouldn't be suprised to see flat for an entire year.

I would be very surprised to see flat like you drew those 'lines'.
Historic data say that the market should go down until it finds the real bottom and then rebound.
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MahaRamana
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May 16, 2014, 11:39:41 AM

Also this chart seems to say that the bitcoin system currently costs 30 USD per transaction:
https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction
The cost of running the system is currently hidden in the inflation caused by mining, but in the long run will have to be paid by users as transaction fees.  If the numbers above are correct, bitcoin will be inviable for payments below 1000 USD.

It's an compelling argument on the face of it, but the question is compared to what?
What is the transaction and system maintenance cost of a USD/GBP/EUR fiat transfer?

What is interesting is the marginal cost of a transaction, not the average.
In other words : how much does it cost for the system in place to generate one more transaction ?
gizmoh
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May 16, 2014, 11:40:32 AM

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

You are in bulls territory, live with it, and parade only when the price is crashing  Wink
dreamspark
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May 16, 2014, 11:43:29 AM

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

Well don't use words like "inevitable crash" saying CCMF around here is just a buzz word, It doesn't mean we are inevitably crashing upwards. (though on a long term scale its probably true Wink )

And at least chessnut posts some charts and reasons for saying that. If Im not mistaken you posted the other day crash of the century incoming when we were at $442...
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May 16, 2014, 11:43:48 AM

Only uberbullish projections are allowed here.  Bearish projections and even completely neutral projectons will be met with a gauntlet of hostility and profanity. Meanwhile 1,000 wrong projections will be made each day by bulls and they will be perfectly acceptable and ignored. It's a double standard.
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May 16, 2014, 11:47:12 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?
dreamspark
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May 16, 2014, 11:48:52 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Yeah why is that, fonzie and igoor and mah37 are all such rational posters.
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May 16, 2014, 11:49:39 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

not true. there are plenty of savage bears around here.
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May 16, 2014, 11:49:47 AM

Another thing that annoys me is that when I write "Inevitable crash" I get 3 responses within a minute stating that I am pulling predictions out of my ass. While in the meantime if for example Chessnut predicts "CCMF" with his EW analysis (which he hasnt the slightest idea about), people are already like "CCMF" etc.

And from where are you pulling your predictions?
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May 16, 2014, 11:50:11 AM

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.



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May 16, 2014, 11:52:06 AM

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.




There is a bit of volume on hoHBoy. About 14,000BTC within the past 3 hours.
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May 16, 2014, 11:53:51 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Nice troll, currently in contention for the best of 2014'
niothor
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May 16, 2014, 11:54:52 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Hunyadi
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May 16, 2014, 11:55:00 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?

Nice troll, currently in contention for the best of 2014'

 Grin
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May 16, 2014, 11:55:59 AM

Why is it that bulls speak so emotionally and inappropriately while bears speak so calmly and rationally?



 Cheesy
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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May 16, 2014, 11:56:17 AM

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.


It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

niothor
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May 16, 2014, 11:58:11 AM

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.


It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl



If that includes the above mentioned "bears" , I don't even want to think how much we're going to wait for it.
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May 16, 2014, 12:00:46 PM


Explanation
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL


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May 16, 2014, 12:01:32 PM

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.


It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl



If that includes the above mentioned "bears" , I don't even want to think how much we're going to wait for it.


 Cheesy
oda.krell
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May 16, 2014, 12:10:11 PM

3600BTC ....now volume is really pathetic, I think that any action will be a couple weeks after the Bitcoin Amestrdam conference.


It was like this after the bottom last summer too. People don't want to sell any more at this price. Now we just have to wait for the bears to turn into bulls again.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zigWeeklyzczsg2013-01-01zeg2013-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl




No, not really. Actually, not similar at all.

I'm pretty much neutral on the question whether the bottom is in or not, but last year, July to be precise, saw a pitch perfect reversal that I picked up comparably easily (and remember making a number of, cautiously, bullish posts about).

This year, assuming the bottom is in fact in, looks much more restrained, bordering on timid, both in volume and price development. I'm sure tera will be quick to jump in pointing to the weekly averages that saw a bearish cross this time vs. no such thing happening last year.

Anyway, the tldr is: last year the bottom was followed by a 2 month period of stable, probably linear (how novel!) growth. This year's "bottom" is followed by sheer stagnation. What conclusion to draw from this is up to you.
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