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Question: 1/24 Closing Price:
<$32,000 - 0 (0%)
$32,000-$33,000 - 1 (10%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 0 (0%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 3 (30%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 1 (10%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 1 (10%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 1 (10%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 0 (0%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 0 (0%)
$40,000-$41,000 - 1 (10%)
$41,000-$42,000 - 0 (0%)
>$42,000 - 2 (20%)
Total Voters: 10

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25067348 times)
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Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay
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May 16, 2014, 06:13:59 AM

at current prices risk/reward ratio for bit coin is not that great, market is practically frozen so trading is almost impossible, so they are gradually moving out to other investments.

I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?

People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.


It is funny how blind people are. What exactly has better risk/reward? There is none.

Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero risk.

Bitcoin's volatility is high, but the historical return is still so good that 60% of every 30-day periods are positive and in Bitcoin's history there has not been a negative year, for example. No matter which investment length period you take, and compare bitcoin with anything else, they come out a winner. So the volatility is not a problem - bitcoins have been the least risk investment on the planet for the last 5 years, because they have never returned a loss after 2 years which all the others have.

The return is very good, about 1000% per year, which is higher than the returns of competing investments in the expected range of -5%...10% of returns.

Currently there are about a million Bitcoin holders, which is so small that even after 10x growth from here, we are still in "innovators" and not even "early adopters catogory. Furthermore, less than 100,000 people actually use Bitcoin. The potential for growth is staggering.

The timing for investment, as measured by any growth trendline, is excellent right now, as the overshoot of the previous bubble has been purged, yet the infrastructure is growing, and the new wave of investors (in 10s of millions) is just waiting for the signal to enter.

Wanna take a bet that a year from now I could find a better investment than btc?
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rpietila
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May 16, 2014, 06:16:04 AM

No. I think that these "betting proposals" are used against me when I present an inconvenient truth, in an attempt to derail. Chew that first Smiley
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May 16, 2014, 06:18:17 AM

Don't you know that because price went from 10 to 1000, that it will go from 400 to 40000 just as easily?

And from 40,000 to 4,000,000 just as easily? Yeah, it is exactly the part I am not "getting". Perhaps because I am a mathematician and vaguely remember from school that amount of money in the Universe is finite Wink. But you are just trolling, right?

Don't feel bad, I don't get it, either.And to answer your question, yes.
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May 16, 2014, 06:18:21 AM

Don't you know that because price went from 10 to 1000, that it will go from 400 to 40000 just as easily?

And from 40,000 to 4,000,000 just as easily? Yeah, it is exactly the part I am not "getting". Perhaps because I am a mathematician and vaguely remember from school that amount of money in the Universe is finite Wink. But you are just trolling, right?

The amount of money that could exist in the world is finite only in the sense that we could run out of all printable material IE cotton, paper etc and we could run out of parts to create hard-drives to store "digital money" in IE banks, savings accounts,  stock accounts etc.
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May 16, 2014, 06:22:23 AM

Well, you are apparently one of the believers that if the price raised 10 times last year, it will most likely raise 10 times this year and next. I do not believe in exponential growth line - just normal markets bull and bear cycles. Now I guess I will be asked again to leave this discussion forum that sometimes resembles more a support group Wink.

The reasoning is not that simple.
It is more like "if the price increased 10 times last year, and if the adoption is still growing while having more room to grow, and if the adoption as a percentage of potential users is still way below 5%, and if there are signs that the next wave of adoption is being prepared in a convincing manner through entrepreunarial dynamism"
then the probability that we will witness at least a 10x increase in the next 12 months is far higher than the probability of a drop of 90% or more of the value. And this is enough to take a rationnal decision in terms of % of your investment portfolio to hold in BTC.
If you cumulate each probabilities that it will rise 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, 6x, 7x, 8x, 9x, 10x, etc.... during the next 12 months, and you average it against the probabilities of a drop of 10%, 20%, ..., 60%, ...,90% during the same period. Then you find that reward potential far exceeds the risk of loss. Therefore, there still is an optimum amount of BTC to hold for virtually all investors in the world that is higher than zero.

Right now it makes no rational sense to have any kind of liquid investments (cash, metals, bonds, stocks, ...) while holding 0 BTC. Such a position cannot be defended (or only with sentiments) and prevents the investment holder from reaching an optimum allocation for his risk profile (whatever that is).

I see it as inevitable that at some point in the not very distant future, investment advisers, portfolio managers, funds and other investors will understand this. Such an evolution can only bring the BTC capitalisation to the trillion dollars range. I believe it would happen on its own, even without the current debasement and implosion of the current debt-based financial system. The current slow-motion collapse of the global financial system since 2008 only increases the probabilities in favor of BTC against other investment classes.
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May 16, 2014, 06:53:09 AM

at current prices risk/reward ratio for bit coin is not that great, market is practically frozen so trading is almost impossible, so they are gradually moving out to other investments.

I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?

People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.


LOL, it does seem that I am not only "irrational" person here - somehow we do not see many people buying this "best investment ever". I am not selling either, I have never owned a bit coin. I am just sharing how it looks like form my perspective as someone who was interested in investing in bit coin since beginning of this year but decided recently to move on.

EDIT: I am not risk averse at all - I have been trading penny stocks and options at college already Wink Bitcoin has been best investment ever early on, but at this point in time I see better options. We will see in a couple of years who was right.

You really have no idea do you

"Couple of Years" I loled

Also what OTHER OPPORTUNITIES have the potential to give you a 1000% return that are not on late night shoppiung channel

"The exciting world of Ostrich Farms"
"Binary trading"

Enter your sugestion here ___________  ?

Well, you are apparently one of the believers that if the price raised 10 times last year, it will most likely raise 10 times this year and next. I do not believe in exponential growth line - just normal markets bull and bear cycles. Now I guess I will be asked again to leave this discussion forum that sometimes resembles more a support group Wink.

Ah grass hopper I have been through 3 of these not 1 like you youngsters have as THEIR view of a THING

It has had 100000% growth since inception

On LTC I have personally made 10x growth 3 times I have turned 4c into $39 & cashed out

You seem to not see the big picture of what this is ..I have been working building banking and billing systems in the finance sector for many many years and your dont understand the disruptive impact of what crypto is

You are going to be kicking yourself as to an oppurtunity lost but I am keen to get your views quoted for prosperity so we can all have a laugh and a giggle later down the track Cheesy



First of all, my opinion is not on bitcoin, strictly on its price. Second, I agree that crypto will revolutionize the finances. Just decided not to buy bitcoin atm, is all Wink.

BTW, I am not trying to write some manifesto on my personal investing philosophy. Somebody asked why the price falling without any bad news. I tried to answer as a representative of people having money put aside for high risk investments and being able to buy btc instantly, but nevertheless not buying them atm.


WTF?Huh   I had been attempting to give you the benefit of the doubt in my various responses to you, and now you are talking like a fool.  I do NOT usually like to preach to anyone, but your recent responses seem to merit some preaching.

If you are prepared to make various investments into potentially risky asset classes, then do that with bitcoin - rather than sitting on the sidelines and getting caught up by the price... fuck the price.. 

This bitcoin matter is NOT a religion, so get that out of your head.. b/c if you believe that people who are investing in BTC are lured in to some kind of religious perspective, you are deluded and failing to see reality and oversimplifying based on FUD.

If you have been learning about bitcoin in recent months and seriously considering bitcoin as a potential investment (rather than trolling us like some fool, like Jorge, and maybe there are a few others that fit into that category), then you should realize that you do NOT have to buy a whole bitcoin.  Buy a fucking fraction of a bitcoin, such as .1BTC or some other level that is comfortable for you.  If you are seriously considering the relative value of bitcoin as compared with other investments, such as penny stocks, you should at least recognize that you will learn more about bitcoin by going through the process of putting a little skin into the game and buying some small amount.  If you believe that .1BTC is too much for you and you believe the price could drop more, then buy .05BTC or some smaller amount and wait it out.  Maybe you will be correct and the price will drop.   On the other hand, the odds seem to be that the price is NOT dropping much more and it is more likely to go up from here within the next few hours or months (we cannot know exactly when, but it seems more likely to go up rather than to go down). 

In sum, I am suggesting in a nice way that you just get involved a little bit more than you are, rather than seeming to preach and judge us from some sideline idiotic perspective.  The farce and idiocy of Jorge and his ilk is to invest so much time into learning about bitcoin, and NOT to put a little bit of skin into the game based on some high falutin perspective that you are above bitcoin.


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May 16, 2014, 06:58:14 AM

at current prices risk/reward ratio for bit coin is not that great, market is practically frozen so trading is almost impossible, so they are gradually moving out to other investments.

I don't see how someone rational can come to that conclusion.
Risk/reward ratio not that great ?

People who evaluate the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin as poor really deserve to sell now, more or less at the bottom.
I don't think there is any investment that has a better risk/reward ratio - unless you are extremely risk averse.


It is funny how blind people are. What exactly has better risk/reward? There is none.

Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero risk.

Bitcoin's volatility is high, but the historical return is still so good that 60% of every 30-day periods are positive and in Bitcoin's history there has not been a negative year, for example. No matter which investment length period you take, and compare bitcoin with anything else, they come out a winner. So the volatility is not a problem - bitcoins have been the least risk investment on the planet for the last 5 years, because they have never returned a loss after 2 years which all the others have.

The return is very good, about 1000% per year, which is higher than the returns of competing investments in the expected range of -5%...10% of returns.

Currently there are about a million Bitcoin holders, which is so small that even after 10x growth from here, we are still in "innovators" and not even "early adopters" category. Furthermore, less than 100,000 people actually use Bitcoin. The potential for growth is staggering.

The timing for investment, as measured by any growth trendline, is excellent right now, as the overshoot of the previous bubble has been purged, yet the infrastructure is growing, and the new wave of investors (in 10s of millions) is just waiting for the signal to enter.

NOW that response is priceless  - even though a bit more bullish than the average bull, but still, priceless - and I am NOT talking about religion... he h ehe   Cheesy
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May 16, 2014, 07:00:46 AM


Explanation
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May 16, 2014, 07:01:14 AM

Don't you know that because price went from 10 to 1000, that it will go from 400 to 40000 just as easily?

And from 40,000 to 4,000,000 just as easily? Yeah, it is exactly the part I am not "getting". Perhaps because I am a mathematician and vaguely remember from school that amount of money in the Universe is finite Wink. But you are just trolling, right?

You do NOT have to believe in 10X exponential growth to recognize that BTC is a good investment.  Just stick with 6% annual growth, and you will more than likely be satisfied with BTC's returns over the next few years b/c I am quite confident that BTC prices are going to appreciate more than 6% per year in the next few years.
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May 16, 2014, 07:02:46 AM

No. I think that these "betting proposals" are used against me when I present an inconvenient truth, in an attempt to derail. Chew that first Smiley

Nancy Reagan said that.  "just say no."   Cheesy
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May 16, 2014, 07:12:17 AM

Bitcoin has a small risk of going to zero, perhaps 3% annualized. That is about the same as fiat cash, or stocks, so we are talking about a net zero risk.

I usually lurk more than I post but I'm surprised someone like you would post such a dubious assessment of risks.

The 3% number is completely pulled out of thin air, but regardless "going to zero" is not a realistic concern. What is a concern is potentially losing 80 to 90% of invested value in a year, and that is a heck of a lot more likely to happen with BTC than the majority of stocks and fiat currencies. It's branded "volatile" and "high risk" for a reason. It attracts the more gambling kind of investor currently. Some of these people believe that if you hit a double six three times in a row, the 4th is a sure thing.

Quote
Bitcoin's volatility is high, but the historical return is still so good that 60% of every 30-day periods are positive

Absolutely true but "historical return" is not a very reliable indicator when the asset in question is as young and groundbreaking as bitcoin is. It's an entirely new kind of commodity, and there is nowhere near enough history yet to make a reliable judgement. Historical performance is never a guarantee for future performance and because of the small sample size this is even more true than usual. A winning streak is only that, it's always going to be finite.
 

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Currently there are about a million Bitcoin holders.....................and the new wave of investors (in 10s of millions) is just waiting for the signal to enter.

Which verifiable data do you have about those mythical billions "just waiting on the sidelines for the right time" ? As far as I can tell it's all gut feeling wishful thinking. That doesn't mean it isn't true, but it's just not something you can claim to be an established fact at this point. In any case, any serious investor who sees a bright future for bitcoin would be buying NOW. They'd be clever enough not to wait indefinitely for a "cheap" price because any price will look expensive compared to what it would be "if it drops just one more time". If hitting the bottom of the long term trend channel is not a signal to enter, what are these "tens of millions" waiting for precisely?

The current million bitcoin holders already includes the early adopters and high risk gamblers, I don't see how 10x more investors are going to come out of the woodwork until things in BTC land undergo some seriously big changes (changes which the early adopters and gambers probably wouldn't like, no less)
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May 16, 2014, 07:13:31 AM

What does the community think of circle.com?

IN techcrunch today:

http://techcrunch.com/2014/05/15/circle-emerges-from-stealth-to-bring-bitcoin-to-the-masses/
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May 16, 2014, 07:49:47 AM

What does the community think of circle.com?

IN techcrunch today:

http://techcrunch.com/2014/05/15/circle-emerges-from-stealth-to-bring-bitcoin-to-the-masses/

I think it is very good thing. For sure there is demand for that kind of service. I hope it is super easy to use.
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May 16, 2014, 07:53:20 AM

has there ever been an asset where almost every participant sooner or later turns into a walking pr-machine in the same way bitcoin does it for its community members ?  one million bitcoin holders all telling it to grandma & friends; all those developers working on new layers (how many are there - thousands ?) all the vc money pouring in the last 12 months, despite of one of the longest downtrends in btc history.
almost every central bank in the world has issued statements, tons of government agencies are watching it, struggling for regulation. an asset with this tiny tiny market cap of just 5 billion is constantly in the headlines, causing raised eyebrows throughout the governments/banks/investment funds/venture capital firms of the entire planet - has there ever been anything like that before ?

just sit back for a moment and grasp what has been achieved so far. a disruptive technology combined with an uncounted number enthusiasts/nutters stampeding through the forums, choo choo ing on every hick-up dwarfing the sheer cheering potential of even the goldbugs...  

p2p, decentralized, money, internet, global AND already beating every fucking other asset that exists. 5 billion is dust compared to the figures of global trade, financial assets/investments, internet trade, etc, etc - literally less than a some flies shit in a zoo - but still you have central banks of G8 (oh wait - it is G 7 now  Roll Eyes) members coming out with statements like this:

Quote
As they do with platform-based digital currencies, central
banks are studying and closely monitoring decentralized digital
currencies such as Bitcoin. There could be potential risks to
overall financial stability if Bitcoin became a signifi cant means
of payment and the Bitcoin system remained unstable

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/boc-review-spring14-fung.pdf

in my opinion even the bears play an important role in delivering the bitcoin evangelium to the potential masses: if all would be only cheering, plenty of new potential investors (even small scale) wouldn´t take this community serious. it is the critical bears talk who is appealing to those (before they get sucked in  Wink)

bitcoin is on a winning streak. even today at 445...
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May 16, 2014, 08:00:48 AM


Explanation
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May 16, 2014, 08:03:55 AM

Huobi is weird, sometimes 10-15 minutes without reporting a trade and then suddenly retroatively reports some large trades and order book changed completely then freezes again.
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May 16, 2014, 08:12:07 AM

has there ever been an asset where almost every participant sooner or later turns into a walking pr-machine in the same way bitcoin does it for its community members ?  one million bitcoin holders all telling it to grandma & friends; all those developers working on new layers (how many are there - thousands ?) all the vc money pouring in the last 12 months, despite of one of the longest downtrends in btc history.
almost every central bank in the world has issued statements, tons of government agencies are watching it, struggling for regulation. an asset with this tiny tiny market cap of just 5 billion is constantly in the headlines, causing raised eyebrows throughout the governments/banks/investment funds/venture capital firms of the entire planet - has there ever been anything like that before ?

just sit back for a moment and grasp what has been achieved so far. a disruptive technology combined with an uncounted number enthusiasts/nutters stampeding through the forums, choo choo ing on every hick-up dwarfing the sheer cheering potential of even the goldbugs...  

p2p, decentralized, money, internet, global AND already beating every fucking other asset that exists. 5 billion is dust compared to the figures of global trade, financial assets/investments, internet trade, etc, etc - literally less than a some flies shit in a zoo - but still you have central banks of G8 (oh wait - it is G 7 now  Roll Eyes) members coming out with statements like this:

Quote
As they do with platform-based digital currencies, central
banks are studying and closely monitoring decentralized digital
currencies such as Bitcoin. There could be potential risks to
overall financial stability if Bitcoin became a signifi cant means
of payment and the Bitcoin system remained unstable

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/boc-review-spring14-fung.pdf

in my opinion even the bears play an important role in delivering the bitcoin evangelium to the potential masses: if all would be only cheering, plenty of new potential investors (even small scale) wouldn´t take this community serious. it is the critical bears talk who is appealing to those (before they get sucked in  Wink)

bitcoin is on a winning streak. even today at 445...


Thank you, bears!!!!!!!!!!      Cry    Cry   Cry  Sorry.  I am getting emotional.   Cry


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May 16, 2014, 08:14:35 AM

It seems like the chart of Huobi and OKcoin are exactly the same, down to a very fine detail. Same volume too. I wonder how they do that.
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May 16, 2014, 08:23:33 AM

has there ever been an asset where almost every participant sooner or later turns into a walking pr-machine in the same way bitcoin does it for its community members ?
Yes, pyramid schemes usually have that effect. Those who invested will only make money if more people invest (and hold) so that the price goes up so that they can sell with profit.

You don't see people who bought Apple or Google stock pestering everyone in sight to buy too. Real investors know that other real investors do not pay attention to hype, they look for fundamentals.

As for "increasing adoption", do not see it in the blockchain:

https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

Also this chart seems to say that the bitcoin system currently costs 30 USD per transaction:
https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction
The cost of running the system is currently hidden in the inflation caused by mining, but in the long run will have to be paid by users as transaction fees.  If the numbers above are correct, bitcoin will be inviable for payments below 1000 USD.
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May 16, 2014, 08:25:39 AM

has there ever been an asset where almost every participant sooner or later turns into a walking pr-machine in the same way bitcoin does it for its community members ?
Yes, pyramid schemes usually have that effect. Those who invested will only make money if more people invest (and hold) so that the price goes up so that they can sell with profit.

You don't see people who bought Apple or Google stock pestering everyone in sight to buy too. Real investors know that other real investors do not pay attention to hype, they look for fundamentals.

As for "increasing adoption", do not see it in the blockchain:

https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions

Also this chart seems to say that the bitcoin system currently costs 30 USD per transaction:
https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction
The cost of running the system is currently hidden in the inflation caused by mining, but in the long run will have to be paid by users as transaction fees.  If the numbers above are correct, bitcoin will be inviable for payments below 1000 USD.

wow great info and you brought up things I never thought about
thanks
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