Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CoinRocka]

I believe this surge is due in no small part to the recent attempts by China and Russia to undermine the USD.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Get used to it, your going to spend a lot of time scratching your head if your trying to find micro reasons for price jumps. Especially when you don't seem to have, even after several months, a true understanding of what makes it valuable to others who don't share your views.

Most of the large moves in the past year had very obvious and plausible explanations.  The closing of SilkRoad, the opening of the Chinese market, the Chinese decrees and workarounds, the MtGOX "bug" announement, the Caixin leak and the workarounds, etc..  Scratching the head not only seems to work, but I can't see how one could expect to predict price moves and trends without trying to predict such external causes (which unfortunately are largely unpredictable).

It is obvious that the true believers have run out of money, for otherwise they would buy every bitcoin in sight, at any price.  Those traders offering bitcoins for sale at 550$, or buying only at 450$, obviously do not believe that it will be worth 2000$ by the end of the year, or 1'000'000$ in ten years.  They are implicitly assuming much less than one chance in 2000 of the latter happening.

[tuneman1980]

Very nice, CoinDesk is showing $509!

http://cryptocoinstats.com/pricetracker.php

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

I cannot wait to see a post of Mah87 about the unstoppable FREEFALL of Ripple today! 

[aminorex]

I don't believe in the EMH (and can't even imagine how it could be applied to an insubstantial asset like bitcoin).

Any time you feel tempted to make an incredibly ignorant and foolish statement like this, it might help you to first try it out, substituting "euros" for "bitcoin".

[JorgeStolfi]

I don't believe in the EMH (and can't even imagine how it could be applied to an insubstantial asset like bitcoin).

Any time you feel tempted to make an incredibly ignorant and foolish statement like this, it might help you to first try it out, substituting "euros" for "bitcoin".

How much do you expect to pay for your lunch a year from now: in euros, and in bitcoin? 

[aminorex]

As predicted, XRP is now entering the hyperbolic phase, lite-rally going to the moon.  XRP stands head-and-shoulders above BTC.   So long, bagholders.

Note:  At this time, from pseudo_mah87's secret underwater base location in the Mariannas Trench of Bizarro World, the direction to the moon is -87 degrees azimuth.

[flynn]

As predicted, XRP is now entering the hyperbolic phase, lite-rally going to the moon.  XRP stands head-and-shoulders above BTC.   So long, bagholders.

Note:  At this time, from pseudo_mah87's secret underwater base location in the Mariannas Trench of Bizarro World, the direction to the moon is -87 degrees azimuth.

3 degrees to go ... !

[magicmexican]

should i dump my ripples?

[aminorex]

How much do you expect to pay for your lunch a year from now: in euros, and in bitcoin? 

I clipped the context, since your question was non sequitur, presumptively because you found directly addressing the point to be inconvenient.

Today I would expect to pay 15 euros.  In 1 year, between 16 and 18 euros.
Today I would expect to pay 0.04 btc.  In 1 year, between 0.004 and 0.002 btc.
The methods used to arrive at both results have similar numerical and statistical qualities, including p values and precision.  
The most notable differences are the relative deviation and the scale and direction of the trend.

[wachtwoord]

should i dump my ripples?

Why have you been holding those in the first place?

[seljo]

should i dump my ripples?

Why have you been holding those in the first place?

I dumped 200000 XRP for 17 BTC back in the day so...

[BBmodBB]

Explanation

/\BTC FATTY WANTS IN!!! 700 WHALE ALERT!!! WOOT WOOT!!!=))))weeeeeeeeeee

[dreamspark]

Get used to it, your going to spend a lot of time scratching your head if your trying to find micro reasons for price jumps. Especially when you don't seem to have, even after several months, a true understanding of what makes it valuable to others who don't share your views.

Most of the large moves in the past year had very obvious and plausible explanations.  The closing of SilkRoad, the opening of the Chinese market, the Chinese decrees and workarounds, the MtGOX "bug" announement, the Caixin leak and the workarounds, etc.. 

Please tell me how it was obvious the price would almost half and then bounce straight back after silk road got shut down?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Scratching the head not only seems to work, but I can't see how one could expect to predict price moves and trends without trying to predict such external causes (which unfortunately are largely unpredictable).

Again get used to it because you will be doing a lot of head scratching, this is Bitcoin, many before you have tried (and failed) to predict and make moves on every "event".

It is obvious that the true believers have run out of money, for otherwise they would buy every bitcoin in sight, at any price.  Those traders offering bitcoins for sale at 550$, or buying only at 450$, obviously do not believe that it will be worth 2000$ by the end of the year, or 1'000'000$ in ten years.  They are implicitly assuming much less than one chance in 2000 of the latter happening.

Jeez, well aparantley nobody who beleive's in Bitcoin has any money left because they've all gone all in already, despite a 6 month bear market /s

[UnDerDoG81]

I wonder who will win this fight now. The people (manipulators) who wants to see the price going down, with dumps, or the people (manipulators) who will see the price go up, with buys. Count me in for the second one

[BBmodBB]

should i dump my ripples?

dump all your shitcoins BUY in more bitcoins!!! Volume is epic!!!! ;-) 700 CLUB!!!$$$$

[billyjoeallen]

should i dump my ripples?

I would, but I also wouldn't have bought them in the first place. Ripple was an interesting idea, but the introduction of the XRP effectively turned RL into a central bank. I already had problems with the system being decentralized and not fully distributed, but the pre-mined nature of XRP put some serious perverse incentives into play.


On another topic, am I the only one disappointed that Circle turns out to be very much like Coinbase and nothing really new except free insurance, a larger ($10) loss leader and the ability to accept credit cards? I love seeing competition in the space, but I was hoping for something more original.

[BBmodBB]

Jorge, it is so painfully obvious that you operate under some seriously constrictive, empirically unsustainable assumptions about markets in general and price discovery in particular that it'd be pointless to discuss this topic with you.

Well, please write for the other readers then.  "Never underestimate the pleasure people feel when being told something that they already know."   (That was Fermi's IIRC.)

Convince yourself of the unlikeliness of (at least the strong forms of) the EMH, or worse, the RWH, and we talk

I don't believe in the EMH (and can't even imagine how it could be applied to an insubstantial asset like bitcoin).

Also I do not believe that price is a random process (certainly not for large-scale motions like these).  The large drops in the past, and most of the rallies, all had obvious external causes.  The Brownian model (with variable variance) is merely the only "technical analysis" model (i.e. model that does not have external factors as inputs) that seems to be validated in practice.  Which means that, indeed, I do not see any reason to believe in TA.

That is always the big topic, fundamentals or TA.
I agree that price movements are mainly driven by fundamentals, be it big events or slow developments.

However; technical analysis becomes true, but only for a short time, when enough market players are all using the same model!

Bitcoin is too low in price here !!! Time to\\\\BOOT UP/////upward momentum should take us to 700+ imho =)

[blatchcorn]

$520 breached!!!