Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kehtolo]

I will change some of my btcs into ltcs to buy mooncoin, look at this buy support on cryptsy https://www.cryptsy.com/markets/view/145

D'yaknow.. you can add an 'r' in mooncoin to make moroncoin... true story!

[ft73]

meh ... shotring again @620$ on Finex.

Looks like U.S.D. swaps barely ever fell at all and now they are at a new all-time-high...

Sure, but existing swaps did allow the correction to sub 600$.
Now volume and 1h graph do not look good to me.

By the way, it's daytrading!

[gizmoh]

Its surprising the amount of USD longs on Finex is still high and it hardly reduced at all despite a farily significant drop over the last few days.

Old ones closed, new ones opened. Finex traders are bullish but looking at the total swaps v/s now slimmer bid depth, another dip can spell disaster!

[N12]

Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

[Markus11]

upcoming auction is an obviously case for the wincelvoss twins imo

[gizmoh]

We are at lower prices.

I will wait for cheaper price under 550 seems OK.. Its bound to test 600 soonish..Yes shroomy i've seen the future 

Buy   June 12, 2014, 10:29 p.m.   81.36496462 BTC   -$44,803.62   $550.65    $89.61

Quoted for shroomy 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

We are at lower prices.

I will wait for cheaper price under 550 seems OK.. Its bound to test 600 soonish..Yes shroomy i've seen the future 

Buy   June 12, 2014, 10:29 p.m.   81.36496462 BTC   -$44,803.62   $550.65    $89.61

Quoted for shroomy 

Yes, you were right. I have no problem admitting you got very lucky with that "bad" news which resulted in an idiotic panic sell. The thing is non of you doom predictors could've seen this coming.
All your usual lines and charts and tarots failed. As most of the time.
We went down because of some news and nothing else. So don't be too proud of yourself. Consider yourself lucky with your cheap coins. I'm happy for you you got them. There was a bigger chance you wouldn't.

[gizmoh]

We are at lower prices.

I will wait for cheaper price under 550 seems OK.. Its bound to test 600 soonish..Yes shroomy i've seen the future

Buy   June 12, 2014, 10:29 p.m.   81.36496462 BTC   -$44,803.62   $550.65    $89.61

Quoted for shroomy  

Yes, you were right. I have no problem admitting you got very lucky with that "bad" news which resulted in an idiotic panic sell. The thing is non of you doom predictors could've seen this coming.
All your usual lines and charts and tarots failed. As most of the time.
We went down because of some news and nothing else. So don't be too proud of yourself. Consider yourself lucky with your cheap coins. I'm happy for you you got them. There was a bigger chance you wouldn't.

News is just a convincing excuse to sell. It did not rally on the Expedia "good" news but it dipped on a bad news. A correction was highly due, the news just precipitated it abruptly.

[ShroomsKit]

I quickly browsed through the last 24 hours.
My god, the bear trolls are in full force again. These people are some of the worst i've seen on forums. And i've read some pretty bad ones. It's hard for me to believe these maniacs have a normal healthy live outside the internet. How do people get that way?

[ShroomsKit]

We are at lower prices.

I will wait for cheaper price under 550 seems OK.. Its bound to test 600 soonish..Yes shroomy i've seen the future

Buy   June 12, 2014, 10:29 p.m.   81.36496462 BTC   -$44,803.62   $550.65    $89.61

Quoted for shroomy  

Yes, you were right. I have no problem admitting you got very lucky with that "bad" news which resulted in an idiotic panic sell. The thing is non of you doom predictors could've seen this coming.
All your usual lines and charts and tarots failed. As most of the time.
We went down because of some news and nothing else. So don't be too proud of yourself. Consider yourself lucky with your cheap coins. I'm happy for you you got them. There was a bigger chance you wouldn't.

News is just a convincing excuse to sell. It did not rally on the Expedia "good" news but it dipped on a bad news. A correction was highly due, the news just precipitated it abruptly.

I understand why you want to believe that and that's fine with me. I would probably do the same in your situation.

[samsonn25]

Conspiracy theorists will say insiders knew of the Expedia news and bought 1-2 weeks early. Then sold off near the peak.

[TERA]

This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

[Miz4r]

Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

Can't it be that Bitfinex is simply getting bigger and more popular? Like Bitstamp's orderbook was getting bigger pretty fast in the wake of Gox stumbling and failing? I remember that in the past Bitfinex was always out of USD to borrow, which prevented the loans to reach new ATHs then. Maybe they're growing out of that phase now as people are getting fed up of Stamp and don't trust BTC-e.

[Asrael999]

This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

If you think big wall street players are not familiar with irrational children you have never met the average hedge fund manager

[N12]

Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

Can't it be that Bitfinex is simply getting bigger and more popular? Like Bitstamp's orderbook was getting bigger pretty fast in the wake of Gox stumbling and failing? I remember that in the past Bitfinex was always out of USD to borrow, which prevented the loans to reach new ATHs then. Maybe they're growing out of that phase now as people are getting fed up of Stamp and don't trust BTC-e.

Of course they are getting bigger and more popular, but at whose expense? As far as I see, Finex is likely supplanting Bitstamp more than BTC-e, and Bitstamp has never offered leverage. That's why I think this divergence is a potential ticking time bomb, it's converting a larger part of the market into flash crash prone margin traders with no real depth to back it up, same as happened with Bitcoinica as it grew.

[TERA]

I think there is also some sort of 'miner-cycle' where miners hoard coins and dump coins at certain times and ASIC companies pay off their overhead costs, or people use coins to buy ASICS, etc - I haven't quite figured it out yet.

[samsonn25]

Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

Can't it be that Bitfinex is simply getting bigger and more popular? Like Bitstamp's orderbook was getting bigger pretty fast in the wake of Gox stumbling and failing? I remember that in the past Bitfinex was always out of USD to borrow, which prevented the loans to reach new ATHs then. Maybe they're growing out of that phase now as people are getting fed up of Stamp and don't trust BTC-e.

They lend out money at high interest rates and there are enough btc gamblers that are willing to pay it so they can play in the btc casino.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

A big part of deficit in the crypto world isn't only held back by irrational children. A very big part is held back as a rational plan by grey area players, who run the market.
Most of the people underestimate those who actually run the exchanges. They rake in a lot of coins with fees, while their operating costs are quite low. But that's not it. They can earn even a bigger amount by playing the market with having access to information that isn't public. They have an detailed overview of their customers balances and they can even map their customers trading habits. If they are anywhere near being smart, then they are also sharing this information with each other and collaborate their trading actions. This consortium is probably the one who is mainly responsible for the artificial deficit created in the crypto world.

[zby]

Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

Can't it be that Bitfinex is simply getting bigger and more popular? Like Bitstamp's orderbook was getting bigger pretty fast in the wake of Gox stumbling and failing? I remember that in the past Bitfinex was always out of USD to borrow, which prevented the loans to reach new ATHs then. Maybe they're growing out of that phase now as people are getting fed up of Stamp and don't trust BTC-e.

They've stopped routing orders to Stamp - so they are not limited by the amount of USD they have on Stamp (but I hope they still limit the swaps to the USD they have received from their customers).