Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

A big part of deficit in the crypto world isn't only held back by irrational children. A very big part is held back as a rational plan by grey area players, who run the market.
Most of the people underestimate those who actually run the exchanges. They rake in a lot of coins with fees, while their operating costs are quite low. But that's not it. They can earn even a bigger amount by playing the market with having access to information that isn't public. They have an detailed overview of their customers balances and they can even map their customers trading habits. If they are anywhere near being smart, then they are also sharing this information with each other and collaborate their trading actions. This consortium is probably the one who is mainly responsible for the artificial deficit created in the crypto world.

Ya. There are so many different things that affect bitcoin prices, including mining, that it makes it a much more complicated analysis than that of a stock which moves mostly based on news.

[zby]

This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

A big part of deficit in the crypto world isn't only held back by irrational children. A very big part is held back as a rational plan by grey area players, who run the market.
Most of the people underestimate those who actually run the exchanges. They rake in a lot of coins with fees, while their operating costs are quite low. But that's not it. They can earn even a bigger amount by playing the market with having access to information that isn't public. They have an detailed overview of their customers balances and they can even map their customers trading habits. If they are anywhere near being smart, then they are also sharing this information with each other and collaborate their trading actions. This consortium is probably the one who is mainly responsible for the artificial deficit created in the crypto world.

This is probably illegal in every possible jurisdiction.

[N12]

This 'price moves on or is correlated to the news' mindset is some sort of old school wall-street-minded thinking which started up when all these 'wall-street' people and big experienced investors started getting involved with bitcoin - that is the only way they know how to think. They aren't familiar with this decentralized market structure with the predictable underlying technical forces that we are familiar with, lack of regulation/transparency, and gigantic chunks of the supply being held by irrational children.

A big part of deficit in the crypto world isn't only held back by irrational children. A very big part is held back as a rational plan by grey area players, who run the market.
Most of the people underestimate those who actually run the exchanges. They rake in a lot of coins with fees, while their operating costs are quite low. But that's not it. They can earn even a bigger amount by playing the market with having access to information that isn't public. They have an detailed overview of their customers balances and they can even map their customers trading habits. If they are anywhere near being smart, then they are also sharing this information with each other and collaborate their trading actions. This consortium is probably the one who is mainly responsible for the artificial deficit created in the crypto world.

This is probably illegal in every possible jurisdiction.

Is it really? The exchanges aren't regulated by the financial authorities.

Though even if it is, it's almost assuredly happening.

[hd060053]

https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

we are at 51 % right now !!!

[seljo]

Anyone would like to comment on this?

[Miz4r]

Last time we were around 600s, there were 15 million in loans. This time, it is 25 million. The longs are ballooning up without reason, and I sense another Bitcoinica.

Can't it be that Bitfinex is simply getting bigger and more popular? Like Bitstamp's orderbook was getting bigger pretty fast in the wake of Gox stumbling and failing? I remember that in the past Bitfinex was always out of USD to borrow, which prevented the loans to reach new ATHs then. Maybe they're growing out of that phase now as people are getting fed up of Stamp and don't trust BTC-e.

Of course they are getting bigger and more popular, but at whose expense? As far as I see, Finex is likely supplanting Bitstamp more than BTC-e, and Bitstamp has never offered leverage. That's why I think this divergence is a potential ticking time bomb, it's converting a larger part of the market into flash crash prone margin traders with no real depth to back it up, same as happened with Bitcoinica as it grew.

Ah now I see what you mean. Because of leverage they need enough bid depth to be able to cover for margin calls. If there isn't enough bid depth to cover for that however this could turn out into a disaster in the case of a serious crash. Well maybe they will still use Stamp as backup if that happens, but even then I see how this could be dangerous. Anyway I'm staying far away from leveraged trading myself, it's just not worth the risk.

[kryptopojken]

Anyone would like to comment on this?

Yes, that cup and handle formations almost never work with btc

[seljo]

Anyone would like to comment on this?

Yes, that cup and handle formations almost never work with btc

Glad we cleared that.

[N12]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

[Tzupy]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

No, this is worrisome. They should have taken action by now to drop below 48% to reassure the markets.
If they keep growing some miners might decide to sell a large % of their hoarded stash, just to hedge against future large drops.

[phosphorush]

pretty irresponsible to allow that to happen -_-

[kryptopojken]

Anyone would like to comment on this?

Yes, that cup and handle formations almost never work with btc

Glad we cleared that.

show me 1 credible cup handle formation and I'll show you 20 that have looked okay but have failed

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dragonkiller]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

No, this is worrisome. They should have taken action by now to drop below 48% to reassure the markets.
If they keep growing some miners might decide to sell a large % of their hoarded stash, just to hedge against future large drops.

they've likely had >51% for some time now, probably just decided to come clean

[Miz4r]

Does anyone know why http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/ doesn't include Huobi? All the big exchanges are there except for Huobi for some reason..

[seljo]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

No, this is worrisome. They should have taken action by now to drop below 48% to reassure the markets.
If they keep growing some miners might decide to sell a large % of their hoarded stash, just to hedge against future large drops.

they've likely had >51% for some time now, probably just decided to come clean

OMG wtf we do now??? Ok read this... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12120.0

[hdbuck]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

No, this is worrisome. They should have taken action by now to drop below 48% to reassure the markets.
If they keep growing some miners might decide to sell a large % of their hoarded stash, just to hedge against future large drops.

they've likely had >51% for some time now, probably just decided to come clean

lmao. im still using ghash.io  
gogo 52%!

[MICRO]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

No, this is worrisome. They should have taken action by now to drop below 48% to reassure the markets.
If they keep growing some miners might decide to sell a large % of their hoarded stash, just to hedge against future large drops.

they've likely had >51% for some time now, probably just decided to come clean

Why price is going up now ?
I dont think they will do 51% attack but its not good not good at all.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

This is hilarious. https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs

[ChrisML]

In the meantime:


CHOO CHOO.