Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

[Tzupy]

Not that stupid if you consider that altcoins draw their source of dollars from Bitcoin almost exclusively. If Bitcoin shrinks, so do they.

Altcoin holders when seeing the value of 'x-coin' dropping against BTC and BTC also in a downtrend are more likely to sell their x-coin for BTC and then BTC for fiat, increasing the seller pressure.

[TERA]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

[empowering]

Little to no feeling about this.

[MatTheCat]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

Agreed.

During the rise, Huobi would take the lead almost every single time. But when we got to the top of the market and Huobi kept wanting to break out, Bitstamp didn't follow. This was that odd period when Bitstamp had the lowest spot price of all exchanges. Even less than BTC-e.

Huobi might be the barky dog of Bitcoin exchanges, but Bistamp is the master. The other exchanges can do what they like but it is only if Bitstamp moves, will Bitcoin move. For all the inflated volume of the exchanges that offer leveraged trading, Bitstamp still has by far the greatest liquidity and is the whale's exchange of choice.

[TERA]

OK let me rephrase this:  The largest populated country in the world with 20% of the entire world's population, the largest financial shadow currency trading enterprise in the world where wealthy investors swap trillions of dollars to gamble on a regular basis, and half of the world's bitcoin exchanges being potentially taken out of the game completely by their government is much more important than 0.22% of bitcoins being sold at an auction. I tire of people constantly dismissing China as 'FUD' without comprehending the full extent of what it actually is, and it is NOT over until the exchanges are actually closed.

[bangersdad]

nem and nxt havnt budged! lol perhaps not all of the crypto community is pathetic

and VRC went up 300% in the last 3 days...although correcting this morning to just a 200% gain.

[N12]

OK let me rephrase this:  The largest populated country in the world with 20% of the entire world's population, the largest financial shadow currency trading enterprise in the world, and half of the world's bitcoin exchanges being potentially taken out of the game completely by their government is much more important than 0.22% of bitcoins being sold at an auction.

I won't disagree. Thing is, we have already known for quite a while now that "4th party" funding channels for exchanges were going to be taken out. Or is there anything new?

[TERA]

OK let me rephrase this:  The largest populated country in the world with 20% of the entire world's population, the largest financial shadow currency trading enterprise in the world, and half of the world's bitcoin exchanges being potentially taken out of the game completely by their government is much more important than 0.22% of bitcoins being sold at an auction.

I won't disagree. Thing is, we have already known for quite a while now that "4th party" funding channels for exchanges were going to be taken out. Or is there anything new?

Well it never actually happened,  and when we were up at $660, a new PR came out from the central bankers of a plan they had just developed to efficiently identify and track the accounts being used and to shut them down, and prevent new ones.

[magicmexican]

Tripple'ish bottom maybe?

[TERA]

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

[empowering]

Tripple'ish bottom maybe?

Bouncy

(oh and the asses too)

[tarmi]

chinese reluctant to sell.

too much new generation hardware waiting to be sold.

give them time.

[kodtycoon]

nem and nxt havnt budged! lol perhaps not all of the crypto community is pathetic

and VRC went up 300% in the last 3 days...although correcting this morning to just a 200% gain.

and was there any cause for this? many coins have gone through pumps like that and faded away again.

nem is 22/23 place on market cap. with out even having released any software what so ever.! its also valued a 1/4 of the real value as its down as only having 1000 stakes when 4000 stakes are priced into the market.

[magicmexican]

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

[TERA]

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

I think Chinese events are more significant than just 'news' - they imply half of Bitcoin's trading power suddenly moving in and out, panicking and thinking that now they have to stop trading bitcoin, or now they can trade bitcoin again - there is a lot of raw force behind it.

[JorgeStolfi]

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

The 0% fees surely are the main reason for the higher volume, but that does not make the volume "fake".  Fake volume is transactions where both parties are the same entity.  If the two parties are distinct competing entities, it is not fake.

While I have no proof that Huobi's volume is legit, if it is fake it is very well done.  OKCoin's has a ~10% component that looks fake.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

Funny, I have seen quite the opposite in general, although there are possible exceptions (the March/13 jump being one).  OkCoin and Huobi change fast, have a very small spread, and track each other very closely, within a dollar or less; while Bitstamp changes slowly, in coarser jumps, and has a very wide spread.

[oda.krell]

My point is that the Chinese probably have about 10x more influence over Bitcoin than this auction as they still trump the entire 'west' in volume on EACH of their exchanges.

How real is volume that is generated by 0% fees? We have to account for that.

Personally, I've only observed Bitstamp leading and Huobi following it reluctantly. I don't know why some perceive the opposite.

I'm guessing enough of it is real to be significant - perhaps 20-50%. Even at just 20% it is still equal to the west, which makes it highly significant. Also, there are frequently several 500-1000BTC walls moving around the order book - those can't be faked, meaning that there are in fact players with millions of dollars (worth of btc or yuan) playing on these exchanges, which leads to belief in at least some legitimacy in the volume.

I don't like the idea of thinking of it as "fake" volume, but I do believe it needs to be heavily "discounted" for purposes of volume analysis.

Based on some (admittedly rather crude, please don't ask) method I employ, today's calculation for example would look as follows:

4400 (stamp) + 3000 (btce) + 5400 (finex) = ~13k "Western USD volume"

43000/10 (ok) + 29000/5 (huo) + 3000 (btcchn) = ~13k "Chinese volume"

i.e. today I discount OKCoin volume by a factor of 10, and Huobi by factor 5. It's coincidence that today they add up to roughly the same value, btw.

Note that I don't buy the claim by finex that they really cut *all* ties with stamp, so some of the finex volume is likely to be a duplicate of stamp volume, so total western USD volume is possibly too high. On the other hand, it doesn't include EUR (and other currencies) volume yet.

In summary, on a day like today I consider, at least by volume, the "Chinese" influence about as big as the "Western" influence.

[TERA]

Do you want to know why we bounced at $340 on Apr 13, why we bounced at $420 on May 5, and thus why this 'trendline' has held thus far? Both bounce events occured immediately when either China or the Chinese exchanges released some counter-FUD article leading us to believe some major change had occured in China and everything was going to be ok there.

I've been told countless of times that news are secondary to the market movements, or does it only apply to the dumps?

I used to think that all of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms were predetermined, but when was watching the crash at $340 (which seemed to just be getting started), and then suddenly I see the most random and largest bullish engulfing candle ever seen in my life come out of nowhere, and I find out it was seconds-minutes after a Chinese news article was released, I had to reconsider.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation