Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[explorer]

Does anybody know the details of the FBI auction?
Will we get to know the price the BTC are sold for? How long after winning does the highest bidder have to wait to get the private key? etc?

not sure if we'll get details on the price, but I believe the bids are being placed by email (lol) and if recent history is any guide, I expect the USMS will simply hit "reply all" with the private keys  

   It would certainly be a fitting finale to this whole entertainment    Funnier yet would be the discovery that they had already lost or compromised the keys, and there was nothing to auction 

[1715451970]

1715451970

[Miz4r]

Fenix aint leading shit

Good lord, look at 17:00. Are you blind?

Good lord, look at 18:00. Good lord, look at 19:45.

No one is leading. Its just a rally led by people seeing the other exchanges rally.

Agreed. Stamp was obviously leading in the correction down from 660 to 550, but this little rally had no clear leader they were just taking turns reacting and reinforcing each other's moves on the way up.

[MatTheCat]

Mat, the only chance for you is trading on 1 day charts. You're just too hothead for anything more short timed.

1 Day charts are looking more promising. But the 4hr-1hr charts are not. Lots can happen in Bitcoin before the 1 day charts stand up and take note. I go away to work within a few days so perhaps I will just take a position if things look not too bad, accept that Bitcoin may go down a bit more but not worry too much about it.

[Nicholas-Carraway]

Anyway, thats probably it for the rally today. Now we will stagnate here until the coins are sold tomorrow.

Then UP!

Happy trading.

Hope you do well, jc.

Cheers,
Nick

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

I don't know whether this mini-rally was led by Bitstamp, Bitfinex, or BTC-e; but anyway it was very nice of them to wait patiently until the Chinese traders got out of bed, turned on their computers, and got ready to follow them. 

[windjc]

Anyway, thats probably it for the rally today. Now we will stagnate here until the coins are sold tomorrow.

Then UP!

Happy trading.

Hope you do well, jc.

Cheers,
Nick

Thanks mate. It'll be fun to check in over the next 5-7 days and see where this market goes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

I am hoping for a drop. I imagine that the price will soar within the year, but there is too much downside risk to jump in heavier around $580. Notably, I worry about Wall Street market manipulators intentionally tanking the market because they have derivative contracts referenced to Bitcoin. For example, in the lead up to the mortgage bubble, Goldman Sachs took out naked credit default swaps via AIG banking on a market collapse that they were responsible for. Notably, the payout of the naked credit default swaps was 10x the underlying dimunition of value in the mortgage market. This occurred because with this type of derivative, one needn't actually own the referenced security, commodity, currency, etc. that they are referencing the "insurance policy" to in order to receive a full payout. Moreover, they can contract for protection that is 100x the value of the underlying asset/currency/security/etc. Since these are unregulated contractual agreements there are no clearinghouses and nobody knows what negative positions people are taking. Resultantly, I think the intrinsic value of this innovation is multiple times its current value and, yet, it is way too easy to manipulate for me to want to get in at this price.

A couple other thoughts

(1) This is why a post-auction dump isn't unfathomable (albeit extremely, extremely unlikely)... an institutional player could use the acquired BTCs as a weapon to tank the market short-term in order to collect on a derivatives contract several orders of magnitude greater than their holdings;

(2) I think the argument for auctioneers buying at a premium is mildly flawed because, although they can buy without impacting the market, they cannot extract liquidity on that many BTCs without dropping the market unless they slow played it and in that case they'd still be holding a lot of risk. They probably will be expecting a jump in prices if they get in, but they'll still run into a similar problem if they look to unload down the line -- they'd have to be a true believer AND somewhat risk blind... they cannot actually utilize that many BTCs unless acceptance goes through the roof OR a major external economic event (Chinese mainland wealth migration). In short, I say it is mildly flawed because I think the reason for expecting a premium is spot-on, but I think it is outweighed by this second factor... I'd expect the auctioneers to buy at a 10% discount.

Full disclosure -- I own a very small holding of BTC (10), that I got at just over $400 a pop. I am holding for the long-term, but hoping for a short-term dump for another entry point. I am very biased in this regard. I missed the boat a while back on the best entry points so take what I say with a grain of salt. I am just curious what others think. I am short-term a mixture of anxious and giddy and long-term hopeful.

[KimNam]

I don't know whether this mini-rally was led by Bitstamp, Bitfinex, or BTC-e; but anyway it was very nice of them to wait patiently until the Chinese traders got out of bed, turned on their computers, and got ready to follow them. 

constant mini rises
already at $586 in bitstamp
i hope chinese trader respond it with more rally

[Room101]

$800 by the end of June

Can i get a amen confirm?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vleroybrown]

Going to $1000 by July 4th.  Or Now

[KimNam]

$800 by the end of June

Can i get a amen confirm?

end of june is only 4 days left
and $800 (38% rise from current price) is mostly difficult to see
back to $666 first is better idea

[shmadz]

$800 by the end of June

Can i get a amen confirm?

end of june is only 4 days left
and $800 (38% rise from current price) is mostly difficult to see
back to $666 first is better idea

yeah, 800 in 4 days sounds unreasonable, but I wouldn't bet against it at this point.



if the price comes back down to meet the line and then bounces to the upside? I think the upside move could be violent.

be ready.


*edit* don't take my statements as advice, I like to make all or nothing bets for very small amounts, so I like to pick high risk/reward ratios, like market reversals. but yeah, this is starting to look like a tasty target.

keep in mind, I'm wrong about half the time.

[BitChick]

Going to $1000 by July 4th.  Or Now

I believe.  A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.    Now that is bullish news!   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[SirChiko]

Going to $1000 by July 4th.  Or Now

I believe.  A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.    Now that is bullish news!   

Is that for real?

Also it would be nice to see 800 by end of June but not real at all.

[aminorex]

Going to $1000 by July 4th.  Or Now

I believe.  A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.    Now that is bullish news!    

Is that for real?

Also it would be nice to see 800 by end of June but not real at all.

No resistance after 800.

And yes, if BitChick says so, it is for real.

[wonkytonky]

Going to $1000 by July 4th.  Or Now

I believe.  A friend of mine, whom I told many months ago about BTC, said she was praying and God told her, and it appears with a feeling of urgancy, to invest in Bitcoin.    Now that is bullish news!    

Is that for real?

Also it would be nice to see 800 by end of June but not real at all.

No resistance after 800.

And yes, if BitChick says so, it is for real.

agree on the  no resistance left after 800.     it's only easy up from there..