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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26408061 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
molecular
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June 30, 2014, 07:03:36 AM

$800 by the end of June

Can i get a amen confirm?


Not out of the question  Roll Eyes

next stop $800 sounds good to me, but I would still be surprised.

If it happens, then consolidate there for a few weeks, please.
btcprice
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June 30, 2014, 07:05:48 AM

600watt
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June 30, 2014, 07:07:49 AM

hmm, looks like this could have legs

what do you guys think?


us marshall service must be great fans of bitcoin. they must have heard about the fear of some forum members that bitcoin as a programmable money could end up in a tainted coin system where there is good and bad coins resulting in a clusterfuck end-of -fungability-scenario. usms thought if they could "wash" the most tainted coins that exist (sr coins) and turn them into the cleanest coins just by selling them, they could break a stance for fungability big time.
and then they thought selling is not enough, auctioning would even be better since it would boost the price on top of it all..... Cheesy
JorgeStolfi
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June 30, 2014, 07:07:58 AM

Why are you so obsessed with the Chinese having to lead the exchanges? Its clear that stamp/finex led this based on how much they moved up (15-20 $) while huobi went up around $10.
* Huobi and OKCoin jumped from nothing at 05:43 UTC, Bitfinex only at 05:44, BTC-e maybe at 05:47.  So Bitfinex and BTC-e can be eliminated. 

* At Bitstamp there was a trade of ~400 BTC at 04:43 but it did not have immediate effect; the price started rising over the next 3 minutes with very little volume; whereas at Huobi and OKCoin trade stayed very high after it started.

* The the initial rise at Bitstamp from 600$ overshoot but quickly fell back, stabilizing at 613$ (13$ increase), while at Huobi and OKCoin the rise was ~70 yuan which is a bit more than 10$.  The difference of 3$ can be explained by "hysteresis", since the real spread at Bitstamp is usually larger than that.

The volume can easily be explained by the fact that the chinese exchanges have no trading fees. As an example some Chinese traders may be selling during the rally to buy back a few minutes later at a little lower price, which isn't as easy if there are trading fees that will cut into profit.
That may indeed happen, but it does not explain why they kept trading vigorously while the price was nearly stable, varying by only 2-3 yuan in each minute.  Why wasn't this volume an hour ago, when price was varying by the same amount?

In contrast Bitstamp has been nearly dead for most of the time.  Obviously it is not the Bitstamp traders who are moving the market.
JimboToronto
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June 30, 2014, 07:08:22 AM

The bear trolls will be quiet for a while.  



Maybe, but probably not.
JorgeStolfi
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June 30, 2014, 07:11:54 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
blatchcorn
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June 30, 2014, 07:12:57 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
Its up $30. There is not price fall  Wink
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June 30, 2014, 07:16:18 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...

JorgeStolfi
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June 30, 2014, 07:18:41 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
Its up $30. There is not price fall  Wink
It fell 7-10$ on Bitstamp, BTC-e, Bitfinex 15 minutes ago.
blatchcorn
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June 30, 2014, 07:20:59 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
Its up $30. There is not price fall  Wink
It fell 7-10$ on Bitstamp, BTC-e, Bitfinex 15 minutes ago.
Yeah after rising $30.  You bears are ridiculous
flynn
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June 30, 2014, 07:21:32 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
Its up $30. There is not price fall  Wink
It fell 7-10$ on Bitstamp, BTC-e, Bitfinex 15 minutes ago.

Good try.

If the derivative doesn't work, try with the derivative of the derivative ...
mizzle
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June 30, 2014, 07:26:47 AM

im gonna guess we sit around $640 by the end of the day  Cheesy
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June 30, 2014, 07:27:03 AM

It's nice that my alarms actually worked for once, now how to figure when to close open positions...

Should one just close now and take the profits?

Or do you just let it run and continue to let the fees eat away at profits?

Sorry for noob questions.
kryptopojken
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June 30, 2014, 07:29:44 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
Its up $30. There is not price fall  Wink
It fell 7-10$ on Bitstamp, BTC-e, Bitfinex 15 minutes ago.

Jorge, I'm trying to figure out how you can have so much free time? You don't believe in Bitcoin, yet you're here ALL day every fkn day writing pure nonsense. What's your motivation? How come you care this much?
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June 30, 2014, 07:32:18 AM

You bears are ridiculous

Aren't they?



 Smiley Wink Cheesy Grin Cool
JorgeStolfi
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June 30, 2014, 07:33:37 AM

Hm, price fell a bit again.  What happened? Did someone offend an old prof?  I told you that the Bitcoin Goddess does not like that...
Its up $30. There is not price fall  Wink
It fell 7-10$ on Bitstamp, BTC-e, Bitfinex 15 minutes ago.
Yeah after rising $30.  You bears are ridiculous
The rise was from 600$ at 05:43 UTC to 630$ at 07:00.  Then it dropped 10$ in the next 10 minutes. Whatever displeased the Goddess must have happened not long before 07:00. 
rebuilder
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June 30, 2014, 07:34:07 AM

The volume can easily be explained by the fact that the chinese exchanges have no trading fees. As an example some Chinese traders may be selling during the rally to buy back a few minutes later at a little lower price, which isn't as easy if there are trading fees that will cut into profit.
That may indeed happen, but it does not explain why they kept trading vigorously while the price was nearly stable, varying by only 2-3 yuan in each minute.  Why wasn't this volume an hour ago, when price was varying by the same amount?

A wild guess: Bots had their trigger conditions met?
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June 30, 2014, 07:37:22 AM

you know during a btc bubble phase. do alys fall first during early bubble phase and then shoot up towards the end? what happened last time?
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June 30, 2014, 07:38:44 AM

Why are you so obsessed with the Chinese having to lead the exchanges? Its clear that stamp/finex led this based on how much they moved up (15-20 $) while huobi went up around $10.
* Huobi and OKCoin jumped from nothing at 05:43 UTC, Bitfinex only at 05:44, BTC-e maybe at 05:47.  So Bitfinex and BTC-e can be eliminated. 

* At Bitstamp there was a trade of ~400 BTC at 04:43 but it did not have immediate effect; the price started rising over the next 3 minutes with very little volume; whereas at Huobi and OKCoin trade stayed very high after it started.

* The the initial rise at Bitstamp from 600$ overshoot but quickly fell back, stabilizing at 613$ (13$ increase), while at Huobi and OKCoin the rise was ~70 yuan which is a bit more than 10$.  The difference of 3$ can be explained by "hysteresis", since the real spread at Bitstamp is usually larger than that.

The volume can easily be explained by the fact that the chinese exchanges have no trading fees. As an example some Chinese traders may be selling during the rally to buy back a few minutes later at a little lower price, which isn't as easy if there are trading fees that will cut into profit.
That may indeed happen, but it does not explain why they kept trading vigorously while the price was nearly stable, varying by only 2-3 yuan in each minute.  Why wasn't this volume an hour ago, when price was varying by the same amount?

In contrast Bitstamp has been nearly dead for most of the time.  Obviously it is not the Bitstamp traders who are moving the market.



You're reaching now, prof.

Large orders came in at the same time, on the minute, across stamp, huobi, and okcoin. Could even be a large enough trader who coordinated his buys across exchanges. Price moved more on huobi and okcoin than on stamp, but the order on stamp was bigger by volume by a factor of around 2.

Anyway, that's a case of 'it started across exchanges simultaneously', about as clear cut as it gets.





molecular
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June 30, 2014, 07:40:30 AM

It's nice that my alarms actually worked for once, now how to figure when to close open positions...

Should one just close now and take the profits?

Or do you just let it run and continue to let the fees eat away at profits?

Sorry for noob questions.

dear noob. If you're a noob, maybe you shouldn't use leverage.

Also: if you take profit in USD you're doing that bitcoin-thing wrong.

Please consider the option of closing your leveraged long position and just buying some bitcoin outright. No continiual fees attached.
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