Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChrisML]

Feckin BTC-E to the moon. snap

[anujjain]

Feckin BTC-E to the moon. snap

We are stick around 650, we need some good news so 650 will cross with good volume.

[edwardspitz]

Feckin BTC-E to the moon. snap

We are stick around 650, we need some good news so 650 will cross with good volume.

Houbi and OKCoin has defended the line. Everyone is waiting for Stamp (except Finex )

[ChrisML]

Meh, closed my long position at 644 on plus500.

Enough for today.

[KaTXi]

are you saying price will go down because those coins will be for sale via new exchanges in developing economies ? and for sure they sell em for less than what they payed. and don´t forget ZHE MILLIONS of fresh bitcoins that will be available because of mining in the next few years ??!1!!

and what about the millions of coins that are already sold. shit, they may get sold again !  and those buyers of all those coins may sell them AGAIN. i wonder why btc price ever went above 1 cent with all this selling  

No, they are not going to be "on sale" on developing economies. That doesn't make sense, everyone in those countries can buy right now in actual exchanges, localbitcoins, etc. What they can do is:

- Lend bitcoins on those countries with a small interest (bearish, they have to monetize (fiatize?) those bitcoins to build/buy almost anything non digital).
- Act as Angel investors in those countries (bearish for the same reason, bitcoin economy is not that big to keep the coins unchanged).

Both options are viable all around the world, you don't need to deal with banks and corrupt goverments to send bitcoins wherever you want, but once the coins are there you will have to use them: Pay bills, pay salaries... And it's easy to see that most of those bitcoins are going to be transformed into fiat before use.

[Torque]

Meh, closed my long position at 644 on plus500.

Enough for today.

You're timing could be bad, we might break $650 today.

[dreamspark]

If they are being used to provide liquidity in emerging markets then they are not just being sold. There will likely be another $20mm invested on the other side to support the market as well. Lets not forget as well who Tim Draper is, he could lose those 30k BTC tommorow and laugh it off so were not going to see a quick arb or a panic sell.

If he manages to set up markets where at the moment it is difficult, although not impossible, to buy then that can only ever be a good thing.

It is however naive to suggest that all markets that may be interested in buying or using BTC at the moment can already do so with minimal hassle.

[Asrael999]

are you saying price will go down because those coins will be for sale via new exchanges in developing economies ? and for sure they sell em for less than what they payed. and don´t forget ZHE MILLIONS of fresh bitcoins that will be available because of mining in the next few years ??!1!!

and what about the millions of coins that are already sold. shit, they may get sold again !  and those buyers of all those coins may sell them AGAIN. i wonder why btc price ever went above 1 cent with all this selling  

No, they are not going to be "on sale" on developing economies. That doesn't make sense, everyone in those countries can buy right now in actual exchanges, localbitcoins, etc. What they can do is:

- Lend bitcoins on those countries with a small interest (bearish, they have to monetize (fiatize?) those bitcoins to build/buy almost anything non digital).
- Act as Angel investors in those countries (bearish for the same reason, bitcoin economy is not that big to keep the coins unchanged).

Both options are viable all around the world, you don't need to deal with banks and corrupt goverments to send bitcoins wherever you want, but once the coins are there you will have to use them: Pay bills, pay salaries... And it's easy to see that most of those bitcoins are going to be transformed into fiat before use.

Yes but over a long time period - not the next month and through the usual cause of business and probably through funding businesses that expand the bitcoin ecosystem. So there is absolutely no chance of 30,000 coins hitting  exchanges in one go, so the market no longer needs to fear the quick sale and profit turn. To me this is about as bullish an outcome as we could have hoped for.

[Richy_T]

[ ... ] and the country continues to function without becoming a Mad Max world.

For sure

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=634731429943273

You should spend a few days here to have a glimpse of what the country is like. A bit larger than what you can see through the internet... 

For sure. I wouldn't mind a visit one day though it is not too likely to happen for various reasons (ironically, not least due to the declining value of my income and savings due to inflationary monetary policy). Such problems tend to be linked with bad financial policy (though not without exception)

[600watt]

Alright, the Tim Draper/Vaurum news looks legit enough:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-usa-bitcoin-20140701,0,4038036.story


Still, he didn't mention the price, despite informing Reuters that he won the auction.

My conclusion: Either he's trying to build suspense, waiting some more before releasing the price he paid. If no such thing happens, I'll suspect that the price per coin was perhaps somewhat above market that day (~600), but below current market, and he'd rather not disclose the exact number to not cause a crash.

Not necessarily bearish, btw. A ~600 floor would be pretty great long term. OTOH, if it turns out we're ~$50 above auction price right now, we might see a small-ish correction near term.

i don´t really think that more than 40 wealthy entities all just made bids below market price or just slightly above it, letting a 600ish bet win every chunk. for a single bidder to win 'em all, he must have picked a higher price.

if you are right than draper is one hell of a poker player. my guess is way above 700.

[ChrisML]

Meh, closed my long position at 644 on plus500.

Enough for today.

You're timing could be bad, we might break $650 today.

I know.. But I have been trading before on "timing" and "speculating". For now it's working out for me trading whilst there is a pump.. and after that a small dump.

Aslong as I hit my goal of $400 a day im happy!

[KaTXi]

Yes but over a long time period - not the next month and through the usual cause of business and probably through funding businesses that expand the bitcoin ecosystem. So there is absolutely no chance of 30,000 coins hitting  exchanges in one go, so the market no longer needs to fear the quick sale and profit turn. To me this is about as bullish an outcome as we could have hoped for.

Agree 100%. Just pointing that sooner or later 30000 BTCs that were outside the market for a year are now back. They can all be kept unused or unchanged but they are back.

[kodtycoon]

Alright, the Tim Draper/Vaurum news looks legit enough:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-usa-bitcoin-20140701,0,4038036.story


Still, he didn't mention the price, despite informing Reuters that he won the auction.

My conclusion: Either he's trying to build suspense, waiting some more before releasing the price he paid. If no such thing happens, I'll suspect that the price per coin was perhaps somewhat above market that day (~600), but below current market, and he'd rather not disclose the exact number to not cause a crash.

Not necessarily bearish, btw. A ~600 floor would be pretty great long term. OTOH, if it turns out we're ~$50 above auction price right now, we might see a small-ish correction near term.

i don´t really think that more than 40 wealthy entities all just made bids below market price or just slightly above it, letting a 600ish bet win every chunk. for a single bidder to win 'em all, he must have picked a higher price.

if you are right than draper is one hell of a poker player. my guess is way above 700.

same. atleast one or two others must have thought oh il go 50 60 above market, it wont matter after the bull run, i just want these coins. the draper comes in and bids up all the lots at 900-1000 like a mutha f*&king boss.

edit: i dont think this situation could get any more bullish.

[Cassius]

Alright, the Tim Draper/Vaurum news looks legit enough:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-usa-bitcoin-20140701,0,4038036.story


Still, he didn't mention the price, despite informing Reuters that he won the auction.

My conclusion: Either he's trying to build suspense, waiting some more before releasing the price he paid. If no such thing happens, I'll suspect that the price per coin was perhaps somewhat above market that day (~600), but below current market, and he'd rather not disclose the exact number to not cause a crash.

Not necessarily bearish, btw. A ~600 floor would be pretty great long term. OTOH, if it turns out we're ~$50 above auction price right now, we might see a small-ish correction near term.

i don´t really think that more than 40 wealthy entities all just made bids below market price or just slightly above it, letting a 600ish bet win every chunk. for a single bidder to win 'em all, he must have picked a higher price.

if you are right than draper is one hell of a poker player. my guess is way above 700.

Exactly: he outbid EVERY SINGLE OTHER bidder, at least some of whom must have put in market or market + a bit bids.
Poker indeed, and nicely done. Of course, we won't know how nicely until we find out how much he paid.

[dreamspark]

Yes but over a long time period - not the next month and through the usual cause of business and probably through funding businesses that expand the bitcoin ecosystem. So there is absolutely no chance of 30,000 coins hitting  exchanges in one go, so the market no longer needs to fear the quick sale and profit turn. To me this is about as bullish an outcome as we could have hoped for.

Agree 100%. Just pointing that sooner or later 30000 BTCs that were outside the market for a year are now back. They can all be kept unused or unchanged but they are back.

And going to places where before there was little to no demand

Also, most importantly let us not forget that ~3000BTC are being mined daily as it is. 30k is 9 days supply roughly. See how silly this suddenly there is 30k more BTC argument is?

[Torque]

Meh, closed my long position at 644 on plus500.

Enough for today.

You're timing could be bad, we might break $650 today.

I know.. But I have been trading before on "timing" and "speculating". For now it's working out for me trading whilst there is a pump.. and after that a small dump.

Aslong as I hit my goal of $400 a day im happy!

To make $400 daily on a price swing of $10/btc per day, you'd have to be playing with what, like 40 btc on the market?  If you true, you are really brave.  I couldn't risk trading that much.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Alright, the Tim Draper/Vaurum news looks legit enough:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-usa-bitcoin-20140701,0,4038036.story


Still, he didn't mention the price, despite informing Reuters that he won the auction.

My conclusion: Either he's trying to build suspense, waiting some more before releasing the price he paid. If no such thing happens, I'll suspect that the price per coin was perhaps somewhat above market that day (~600), but below current market, and he'd rather not disclose the exact number to not cause a crash.

Not necessarily bearish, btw. A ~600 floor would be pretty great long term. OTOH, if it turns out we're ~$50 above auction price right now, we might see a small-ish correction near term.

i don´t really think that more than 40 wealthy entities all just made bids below market price or just slightly above it, letting a 600ish bet win every chunk. for a single bidder to win 'em all, he must have picked a higher price.

if you are right than draper is one hell of a poker player. my guess is way above 700.

You saw my 'EDIT', right? I consider the practical outcome of the auction better than I'd ever hoped for.


That said, I'm simply playing the near term/mid term/long term price prediction game here, so I'll ask: what would you consider the most likely reasons NOT to disclose the price you paid.

(in no particular order, I can come up with)

1- privacy reasons (unlikely, imo. he's an investor.)

2. competitive advantage (possible. doesn't want to give his strategy away in case of future auctions)

3. price was way above market and he doesn't want to look like he overbid (unlikely, it's not like he has shareholders to please on this decision)

4. price was around market on the 27th, which makes it somewhat below market of today. (quite likely, imo)

5. doesn't want to drive price up by announcing his above market buy price, because he's still accumulating. (also possible)

I personally consider 4. and 5. to be the most likely reasons. Comments?

[atp1916]

The precedent has been set for the other ~110k bitcoins that are yet to be auctioned.  

Dumpers will not get them because they will never bid up past market price.  The VC firms bidding will simply bid up past market price and keep the coins out of the hands of the dumpers.

This is all a good ending wrt to closing off the whole Mt. Gox fiasco.

[Moria843]

Yes but over a long time period - not the next month and through the usual cause of business and probably through funding businesses that expand the bitcoin ecosystem. So there is absolutely no chance of 30,000 coins hitting  exchanges in one go, so the market no longer needs to fear the quick sale and profit turn. To me this is about as bullish an outcome as we could have hoped for.

Agree 100%. Just pointing that sooner or later 30000 BTCs that were outside the market for a year are now back. They can all be kept unused or unchanged but they are back.

I too agree and have been buying since the auction was announced. Can't believe some of the paranoid views over the fear that 30,000 BTC will be dumped all at once or 0.3% making that much difference.