Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

Look i understand we're on a speculation forum and predict things based on lines and what not but presenting detailed predictions for the next 6 months as facts is just stupid and a complete waste of time. It is 100% impossible to know what will happen the next 6 months.

source ?






you are right, no one knows the future. i still do not think it is stupid or a waste of time to share expectations. my intention was to tell the folks who are expecting THE2014BUBBLE is inevitable and will start tomorrow that they may have to be a bit more patient and that there may be no bubble soon.   

[ShroomsKit]

Look i understand we're on a speculation forum and predict things based on lines and what not but presenting detailed predictions for the next 6 months as facts is just stupid and a complete waste of time. It is 100% impossible to know what will happen the next 6 months.

source ?






you are right, no one knows the future. i still do not think it is stupid or a waste of time to share expectations. my intention was to tell the folks who are expecting THE2014BUBBLE is inevitable and will start tomorrow that they may have to be a bit more patient and that there may be no bubble soon.   

Expectations i can totally live with that.
You make it seem like facts.

[mmitech]

Look i understand we're on a speculation forum and predict things based on lines and what not but presenting detailed predictions for the next 6 months as facts is just stupid and a complete waste of time. It is 100% impossible to know what will happen the next 6 months.

83.719% of your posts are in the speculation forum, and most of them are in this thread, yet I still can't understand your attitude upon trading or any prediction/speculation about the price going down, a month ago I sold at this price and I said that I don't think the price will be going any where for some time and I didn't change my mind yet, there is also a possibility of us going down ($400-500).... only then I would buy back.





BTW, don't you sleep at all or what ?

[empowering]

Would not surprise me if we go down to 614 - I will be paying attention if we go towards/past the 609 fib/SMA20

I am bullish from a daily, and even ore so on a weekly/monthly point of view though, not so sure on lower timeframes

Low volume.

Monkey?  Is that you?  How did you....nah.

  

[spooderman]

Ok low 600s boring now. Let's move. Once again, I want to freeze myself like Cartman and wake up in a month at which point the price will (hopefully) be in the 800/900s.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[birr]

Argentina

I do not see Argentina as the next Cyprus.  Cypriots had EUR, Argies have ARS, which is basically toilet paper outside Argentina.
Before Argentinians can start buying bitcoin, they are going to have to find something to buy it with, something called hard money.   Nobody is going to accept ARS in exchange for BTC on any significant scale.
Moreover, the situation in Argentina is different from Cyprus because nobody is confiscating their holdings of a convertible currency as in Cyprus; the Arg citizens who possess convertible currency aren't under threat as the Cypriots who possessed EUR at the time of the crisis were, and such Argentinians won't feel an urgent need to unload USD.

[roslinpl]

At least > $600 ...

I see again a lot of optimism in the thread's poll. And again I hope that most of us placed the right vote :-)

[skaffen]

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Will the Winklevoss etf mean people are buying new bitcoin though?  Won't they just be buying bitcoin the Winklevii bought years ago?  (this sounds wrong but I'm too tired to work out why).  I mean, where currently someone would have to buy bitcoin on an exchange, with the etf, they will be able to buy from via the etf (which doesn't have to buy any more coins).  So the etf would have a negative effect on market demand (for the current markets) by this logic.  i.e. essentially it is unleashing a huge supply of the Winklevoss coins.

[kehtolo]

Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.

[600watt]

Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.

hm... if the winklevoss brothers wanted to sell their stash, they could always do so. why would they go through the most complicated way of an etf that needs approvement, paperwork, etc. if they wanted to sell, they would have done it already otc or via exchanges.

their intention is to keep their stash and when thier etf gets approved and institutional investors want lots of btc etf then this would create a huge demand = c c m f


edit: typo

[Richy_T]

lol he just said regulation doesn't make something less free?

Jorge, since you claim to be an academic maybe you should consult proper sources. In this case I would advice the dictionary 

Jorge obviously hasn't had much contact with regulated industries. When HIPAA came in (and later Sarbanes Oxley), they were *huge* costs to the company I was working for. The company was big enough to absorb the cost but a new or intended entrant?

[Richy_T]

Free is free. No impediment. No rules. No regulation. Nothing to hinder trade by consenting people.

That is not free market, it is "laissez faire capitalism", "wild west market", whatever.  The name "free market" has been taken long ago to mean what I wrote.

Laissez faire capitalism is what gave use the banks too big to fail, tax exemptions for the rich, the 1%-99% society, and so on.

That's crony capitalism. In the Laissez faire world, there is not "too big to fail" you just fail and get bought out (or not) by someone more competent.

[Asrael999]

Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.

hm... if the winklevoss brothers wanted to sell their stash, they could always do so. why would they go through the most complicated way of an etf that needs approvement, paperwork, etc. if they wanted to sell, they would have done it already otc or via exchanges.

their intention is to keep their stash and when thier etf gets approved and institutional investors want lots of btc etf then this would create a huge demand = c c m f


edit: typo

note as well that if fully subscribed that ETF will have to have 200,000 coins
If memory serves , and I'm an elderly fecker so it doesn't always, the twins had/have 100,000?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Krabby]

Surly the price will go up soon.

[empowering]

!! I see GIANT GREEN DILDOS EVERYWHERE!!!!

oh no scrap that I am in a supermarket and they are courgettes and cucumbers...

My bad ...  sorry

grumble grumble

[thezerg]

Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Will the Winklevoss etf mean people are buying new bitcoin though?  Won't they just be buying bitcoin the Winklevii bought years ago?  (this sounds wrong but I'm too tired to work out why).  I mean, where currently someone would have to buy bitcoin on an exchange, with the etf, they will be able to buy from via the etf (which doesn't have to buy any more coins).  So the etf would have a negative effect on market demand (for the current markets) by this logic.  i.e. essentially it is unleashing a huge supply of the Winklevoss coins.

Let's think hard here.  I mean REALLY stretch our brains.  The Winklevoss have spent LOTS of time and money creating an ETF.  Why did they do ths?  Because if this ETF is anything like GLD, it could dramatically increase the price of BTC over a few years.  So the Winklevoss could:
  1. Sell their coins to ETF purchasers, which will leave the BTC exchange rate more or less unchanged and result in the Winklevoss owning no coins.  At that point the BTC exchange rate will start rising but the Winklevoss will not benefit b/c they own no coins.
  2. Keep their coins, forcing ETF purchases to eventually hit the open market pushing up the BTC exchange rate and making their stash much more valuable.

Hmm... which will it be? 

[empowering]

Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.

Guys and girls - this situation is going to resolve itself just like the situation in the 400s. We bounced around high to low and mid to low 400s for many weeks. Finally, there just were no more sellers. None. And once that happened, the bulls ran wild.

Well, that is what we are seeing again. No buying, but less and less selling. So unless sellers start selling more soon, then the selling will eventually slow to a crawl again. At that time, our only way forward will be up.

Now this could take another week or so or more - who knows - its all just "speculation" that we love.

But, me, I'm watching the sellers, not the buyers, for clues on how low this goes and where the local bottom really is.

Yeah I think there are just too many bulls expecting a bubble, can't go up when everyone is a bull unless there is a huge influx of new people getting into bitcoin. That's going to happen eventually but not as fast as people are thinking. Some impatient buyers have already sold and I see the number of bears increase again which is positive because we need them as fuel for the price to go up. I don't expect a bubble any time soon but I do see 800-850 in the cards.

there will be no bubble this summer. in september (or whenever etf gets approved) a steady bull run will start. it may lead into another bubble in q4. july and august will stay boring...

Will the Winklevoss etf mean people are buying new bitcoin though?  Won't they just be buying bitcoin the Winklevii bought years ago?  (this sounds wrong but I'm too tired to work out why).  I mean, where currently someone would have to buy bitcoin on an exchange, with the etf, they will be able to buy from via the etf (which doesn't have to buy any more coins).  So the etf would have a negative effect on market demand (for the current markets) by this logic.  i.e. essentially it is unleashing a huge supply of the Winklevoss coins.

Let's think hard here.  I mean REALLY stretch our brains.  The Winklevoss have spent LOTS of time and money creating an ETF.  Why did they do ths?  Because if this ETF is anything like GLD, it could dramatically increase the price of BTC over a few years.  So the Winklevoss could:
  1. Sell their coins to ETF purchasers, which will leave the BTC exchange rate more or less unchanged and result in the Winklevoss owning no coins.  At that point the BTC exchange rate will start rising but the Winklevoss will not benefit b/c they own no coins.
  2. Keep their coins, forcing ETF purchases to eventually hit the open market pushing up the BTC exchange rate and making their stash much more valuable.

Hmm... which will it be? 

or 3) They get out maneuvered by Mark Zuckerberg , who just out of spite and with great timing and much fanfare launches an app that intergrates Bitcoin and pushes Bitcoin adoption more than anything to date, and the ETF is a flop in comparison..       

n.b - I am joking Would be funny though... If I were MZ I would do it just for kicks