Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[derpinheimer]

we did it! price is stable!

Lol! The dumps have paused, we're in the clear! I'm seriously going to shit my pants if I wake up tomorrow and see that Huobi crushed 3400. 7k bids on just $8 of spread (3400-3450). This is the biggest fiat wall in Bitcoin's history!

[vuduchyld]

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! 

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT?  I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat).  I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news.  There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze.  Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load.  But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW:  I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little....  continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.   

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings...   My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then.  I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015...  Then have to go to plan B.... ..

don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?

The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015.  I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.

How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%?  I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.

Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment.  I think diversification is beautiful, myself.  I've learned hard lessons in my life.  If BTC runs, I'm happy.  If not, I'm still happy.  Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old.  It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times.  It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets.  I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.

You are correct.  The loan was unsecure.  It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure. 

I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.

I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%.  It is more difficult to find 0% these days.

Then I guess in your case, the question is whether or not you can generate a return in excess of the interest rate.  Sounds like you have in the past.  You also need an exit strategy to repay the loan...and a Plan B for repayment if the shit hits the fan. 

We're just probably at different places in our financial plan, because I personally would be reluctant to do it that way.  YMMV.  Not sure how well I'd sleep with that kind of exposure, in this case, to your credit.  I guess $20,000 might be a car, and you could keep a car longer and divert budgeted payments to that loan, worst case. 

At least you don't seem to be in a panic, so good on ya.

In part, I am NOT too worried about paying back the $20k b/c I have considerable confidence in BTC appreciating by then... and also the terms of the loan is that I have to make about 1% payment per month on the loan, and therefore, by 9/15, the loan will be less than $18,500.  Additionally that $20K loan represents less than 1/4 of my total BTC portfolio holdings.

If BTC does NOT appreciate or sufficiently hold value, then I have some back up ideas that could cover my pay back amount of $18,500.

1) I have a index stock fund that is totally liquid that has a current value of more than $25k;

2) I have a non-liquid asset that is more or less guaranteed to generate an income of about $80k over that 16 month period;

3) I have a quasi-liquid asset that is currently valued at more than $400k that could be accessed in an emergency situation;

5) I have some business assets that are NOT very liquid that are valued at about $100k that could potentially generate some funds in an emergency situation;

6) I continuously monitor my various financial assets to ensure that they remain more or less on track - if they start to go off track, then I can strive to make adjustments; and,

7) I may have some other untapped resources that could possibly tap into  in order to generate some income... if i needed.   


ATM, I doubt that I need further preparations....  Therefore, I feel pretty confident about my having had leveraged about 1/4 of my current BTC holdings.

Straight to the point, you're also only talking about 3% of your net worth.  Makes a lot more sense that way!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

I'll hold my tongue still, I feel 500 bottom or breaking 550 would be towards the final dumping.. and would trigger some really strong support. However this is very uninformed speculation on my part lol.. if you could call it that. I can believe 555 holding for us after some good volume in to the weekend I hope

[birr]

my mom always said the best answer would be to blow up the world.

It isn't inflatable.  I looked.  There's no nozzle.

The world is a basketball.
You stick the needle in.

[hyphymikey]

1W MACD is red. Everyone here should know what happens next.

BUY BUY BUY!!!

[derpinheimer]

1W MACD is red. Everyone here should know what happens next.

BUY BUY BUY!!!

Does.. does it go purple? Do Satan's spawn come out of the ground and eat everyone who owns a satoshi? I dont understand!

[cbeast]

The training is loading up.

[hyphymikey]

1W MACD is red. Everyone here should know what happens next.

BUY BUY BUY!!!

Does.. does it go purple? Do Satan's spawn come out of the ground and eat everyone who owns a satoshi? I dont understand!

The 1W MACD crossed back and forth right before the last couple of bubbles. Final capitulation.

[Davyd05]

hump day was dump day? I am so interested in how the weekend will playout.

Also just plain ol' volume for some recovery signs

[mooncake]

This buying is very unusual. Someone or a group of people have been consistently and regularly buying for the past 4 hours now. 555.9 on Stamp might be the turning point.  

[Newbie1022]

This buying is very unusual. Someone or a group of people have been consistently and regularly buying for the past 4 hours now. 555.9 on Stamp might be the turning point.  

Yea, leverage on Bitfinex increased $400,000 during this period of time. I don't think this one is built to last. Also, the buying really has been limited mainly to Bitfinex and China.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[samsonn25]

This buying is very unusual. Someone or a group of people have been consistently and regularly buying for the past 4 hours now. 555.9 on Stamp might be the turning point.  

Yea, leverage on Bitfinex increased $400,000 during this period of time. I don't think this one is built to last. Also, the buying really has been limited mainly to Bitfinex and China.

So this is not good

[kireinaha]

This buying is very unusual. Someone or a group of people have been consistently and regularly buying for the past 4 hours now. 555.9 on Stamp might be the turning point.  

...Willy?

[Newbie1022]

This buying is very unusual. Someone or a group of people have been consistently and regularly buying for the past 4 hours now. 555.9 on Stamp might be the turning point.  

Yea, leverage on Bitfinex increased $400,000 during this period of time. I don't think this one is built to last. Also, the buying really has been limited mainly to Bitfinex and China.

So this is not good

Depends. They might be counting on GABI entering in on Friday and might figure that they can outlast the pain. At the same time, I think the scale of their losses and wind downs > than GABI. But it does depend. It isn't entirely outside the realm of possibility that they're gamble could pay off. I wouldn't do it, but that doesn't make it crazy.

[mooncake]

If it is the same party pushing down earlier and buying up now, it is good. Else, no good.

[Newbie1022]

If it is the same party pushing down earlier and buying up now, it is good. Else, no good.

Well, that would be bad because they could dump again... especially since even with heavy buying the price is still uber depressed.

[Newbie1022]

The order book is too hot, too. More resistance for going up than down (within the day's range). There is nothing to see, here.

[Wary]

1W MACD is red. Everyone here should know what happens next.

BUY BUY BUY!!!

Does.. does it go purple? Do Satan's spawn come out of the ground and eat everyone who owns a satoshi? I dont understand!

The 1W MACD crossed back and forth right before the last couple of bubbles. Final capitulation.

Which chart are you looking at? At mine (bitcoinwisdom, bitstamp), out of 4 last bubbles it happened only once, before April's one.