Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mooncake]

The volume is pathetic. The price is flat. Whoever is the manipulator has done a really good job. We need to give credit where it is due. 

[Sandia]

Bitstamp H/L range for today is $3.88.

Personally, I thought the Visa comment and the Global Payments announcement were huge news.  No one seems to have cared; a few months ago, it would have caused a huge rally.

[HarmonLi]

I send regular messages to companies that I use, that I would like to add Bitcoin (did so with Dell, Expedia, along with quite a few other people it seems...) asking them when (not if) they will start to accept BTC as a payment method..  I also have sent messages to countless other companies, inc BMW, Virgin Atlantic,Tesco online, Easy jet, E-bay, and on and on... but also Amazon.... sent them several messages from 3 different accounts... and not ever had a reply from Amazon until today....- a fob off really, nothing to write home about I know... but... maybe a few more people should give them a nudge..

Many people will shun you, but I think it is a good thing to do and if really a lot of people are doing this, we might very well get those companies to accept bitcoin at some point! Amazon would, undoubtedly be the biggest player we could get into accepting it. It's the online department store! Man, this would kickstart this rocket to Pluto!

[oda.krell]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

[Threebits]

Fresh money is needed but there hasn't been enough than fresh coin supply. How do I get that conclusion? Not really I am in a position to occlude anything but that is my agreement with one of the sayings.

How TA would tell where we probably go and for how long?

[HarmonLi]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DjPxH]

Less than a month after it first began accepting bitcoin, Dell has received a 85 BTC (over $50,000) order for a PowerEdge server order.

http://www.coindesk.com/dell-receives-50k-server-order-bitcoin/

That doesn't sound like it's a lot of money for Dell. I think it's a great thing that order has been made using Bitcoin, but it isn't an order out of the ordinary for Dell, I guess, right?

[Kipsy89]

So, we've seen the dump of the day, friends! Maaan, what a slow start into the week! I wanna see some breakout action up to the north! Come on Bitcoin, just get into the groove and up we go!

[Peter R]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

Here's the latest chart (updated just now):

[DjPxH]

Massive dump on Stamp, panic everyone! Which exchange started it, does anyone know? Wow what a sad beginning for this week, in which so many people put their hopes and dreams in!

[cdooer]

Less than a month after it first began accepting bitcoin, Dell has received a 85 BTC (over $50,000) order for a PowerEdge server order.

http://www.coindesk.com/dell-receives-50k-server-order-bitcoin/

That doesn't sound like it's a lot of money for Dell. I think it's a great thing that order has been made using Bitcoin, but it isn't an order out of the ordinary for Dell, I guess, right?

I think what makes it a little different, or even worth reporting on is that the order isn't for standard stuff Bitcoiner's would normally buy, like laptops, etc. Since its a $50K order for a server, its more likely to be a business spending the BTC rather than the typical user. Maybe some of the vendors who are accepting BTC aren't converting all of it directly to fiat after all.

[HarmonLi]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

Here's the latest chart (updated just now):

Ah thanks a lot! That really looks interesting! I'm wondering, though... According to this chart, wouldn't we still need to increase the number of transactions, to even account for the current price???

[Schickeria]

Massive dump on Stamp, panic everyone! Which exchange started it, does anyone know? Wow what a sad beginning for this week, in which so many people put their hopes and dreams in!

Yes. Bitcoin is actually in a period of massive pump & dump, this rollercoaster is making me sick.

I would prefer a chart that looks like the surface of a neutron star.

[Bagatell]

I would prefer a chart that looks like the surface of a neutron star.

Zoom out.



https://www.dropbox.com/s/pvbihq5qsq4azph/Screenshot%202014-08-11%2017.38.49.png

[oda.krell]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

You should keep two things separate: how well the data is modeled, and how well the model predicts future data.

For example, you'll note that the local peaks of the transactions (early 2013, late 2013) come well after the peak in price. And how to extrapolate from the transaction graph into the future is an entirely different question, imo.

I picked the "plateau" phases on purpose. In my opinion, the price of around $100 last year was an important milestone. Took the market a while to understand that we won't go below it again for any substantial amount of time, but also that it takes some time to go above it.

Feels similar now, with 500s instead of low 100s.

(Subjective argumentation above, I know... Dismiss it freely )

[HarmonLi]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

You should keep two things separate: how well the data is modeled, and how well the model predicts future data.

For example, you'll note that the local peaks of the transactions (early 2013, late 2013) come well after the peak in price. And how to extrapolate from the transaction graph into the future is an entirely different question, imo.

I picked the "plateau" phases on purpose. In my opinion, the price of around $100 last year was an important milestone. Took the market a while to understand that we won't go below it again for any substantial amount of time, but also that it takes some time to go above it.

Feels similar now, with 500s instead of low 100s.

(Subjective argumentation above, I know... Dismiss it freely )

Nah, I think it's a nice assumption! I like to see how people feel about current prices and whether they think that they're sustainable or we're even about to go higher. Then the whole Mt. Gox willy bot thing needs to be addressed. We haven't seen a bubble without willy yet, and some people claim we need that bot. But who knows... I'm not sure what to believe. But remain optimistic!

[kireinaha]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

[HarmonLi]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

If the price manages to go up and maybe even another bubbles comes around, your $10 May quickly be worth $10k, haha! But your plan seems like a reasonable and prudent plan. But remember that Bitcoin may still go to $0!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation