Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[tarmi]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!?  

no, they are just dumping it.

rpietila mentioned 470 few days ago. masterluc noticed a bearish divergence.

where are you guys placing your bids? high 400?

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[rohnearner]

I was hoping it to go lil low 560 and I'm ready with lil buy order now I guess its recovering back to where it is from last couple of weeks.

So you're gonna risk losing out and probably panic buying at 600 because you want to save 20 bucks per coin?

naa in that case I'll buy @594 Doesn't matter much its just 20$ here or there from  current price.

[blatchcorn]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!? 

no, they are just dumping it.

I AM PANIC SELLING! 

[JimboToronto]

You've had 5 years for cheap coins. Wasn't that enough?

Not for Johnny-come-lately noobs.

They remind me of the people who wanted the price to drop to pennies back in 2012 because they thought they'd missed the boat.

Sorry. Those days are long gone. Get over it people and let's get the ball rolling again.

Of course when the price is $10k, other noobs will be pining for a return to the $600 prices they read about.

[ShroomsKit]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!?  

no, they are just dumping it.

rpietila mentioned 470 few days ago. masterluc noticed a bearish divergence.

where are you guys placing your bids? high 400?

Rpietila, just like every other person here, has no clue where the price will go.

[derpinheimer]

Oh Jesus guys, sell sell sell and keep it low for the next month.

Why??

Because we all love cheap coins.

Protip: good traders buy on the way down and sell on the way up.

How many more years do you want Bitcoin to go down exactly?
You've had 5 years for cheap coins. Wasn't that enough?
Do you realize you will make money if people stop selling all the time and the price goes up?

If the price goes up because no one sells, it will be unstable. Sellers are needed. Lets see how well the market holds with a 10m bidsum at $10,000.

Sorry. Doesn't make any sense.

Sorry, it does. You want the market to float up because there is no selling pressure. That -> no support -> will crash

[empowering]

I was hoping it to go lil low 560 and I'm ready with lil buy order now I guess its recovering back to where it is from last couple of weeks.

So you're gonna risk losing out and probably panic buying at 600 because you want to save 20 bucks per coin?

There are buyers not only investing their allowance of 20,00$ to accumulate 1 Bitcoin. For adult investors, investing +10,000$ it is a difference. But you can't grasp it...

The difference is

Say buyer was buying $20,000 of coins at $570 the amount of coins would be = 35.08

Say the buyer was buying $20,000 of coins at $590 the amount of coins would be = 33.89

Difference =  1.19 Bitcoins.

However- say we move up suddenly to just say $800

Then

$20,000 of coins at $800 the amount of coins would be= 25

Difference of -10 coins...

So... it is "worth it" if you call it right , at the time, on time everytime- or have a strategy that allows you the risk, or you are averaging down your initial (higher) buy in.

i.e if the price moves against you... then it is not worth it, unless you are going to call it right more often than not and it all depends on how bothered the particular adult is about the 1.19 coin difference on a 20K deal..  and even at bigger numbers (ie buying $200,000 worth of coins then the difference in $20 in the price would be 11.9 coins, or just under 24 coins for a 400K worth...so $14k  or so no major biggie in the grand sceme of things..) Unless you are talking about the difference in price when BTC rockets.. then yeah- but that is of equal concern to a small BTC holder or a large BTC holder (in terms of 1 BTC being worth a large sum of money in the future)

[Sandia]

New shorts are going in. 600 or 700 new btc swaps just bought in the last 35 minutes.

[tarmi]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!?  

no, they are just dumping it.

rpietila mentioned 470 few days ago. masterluc noticed a bearish divergence.

where are you guys placing your bids? high 400?

Rpietila, just like every other person here, has no clue where the price will go.

yes, but at least rpietila got more than enough coins to make a decent call and influence the market.

[empowering]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!?  

no, they are just dumping it.

rpietila mentioned 470 few days ago. masterluc noticed a bearish divergence.

where are you guys placing your bids? high 400?

Rpietila, just like every other person here, has no clue where the price will go.

I DO ! I DO !

Bitcoin is going to go up a little bit, down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit,down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, sideways a tiny bit,  down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit,down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, sideways a tiny bit,  sideways a tiny bit, down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, sideways a tiny bit, then UP A SHIT LOAD , then down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit,down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, sideways a tiny bit,  down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit,down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, sideways a tiny bit,  sideways a tiny bit, down a little bit , sideways a little bit, down a little bit, up a LOT down a bit, down a fair bit, up a little bit, down a bit , down a bit, sideways for a bit, then UP A LOT, then UP A LOT, then down a little bit, down a little bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, down a tiny bit, up a tiny bit, sideways a tiny bit, then UP A SHIT LOAD..continue until it stops.

[hdbuck]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!?  

no, they are just dumping it.

rpietila mentioned 470 few days ago. masterluc noticed a bearish divergence.

where are you guys placing your bids? high 400?

Rpietila, just like every other person here, has no clue where the price will go.

yes, but at least rpietila got more than enough coins to make a decent call and influence the market.

masterluc is the man tho, been right all along.

[iram3130]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!? 

Lol, do you think when China will ban Bitcoin, and price will just move down to 10 points.
Then you are on wrong place, just stop trading bitoin or soon you will lose so much.

[JayJuanGee]

Surprised by how well the Metcalfe's law price assumption works, for example when comparing the previous "plateau" phase (~100 USD) and the current one.

Looking at number of transactions (excluding 100 popular addresses), comparing the August 2013 average (25k) to the August 2013 average (60k), we get: ((60/25)^2)*100 = 576 USD.

Close enough, no?

Wow, really? So we'd need an increase in transactions now, right? (Aren't we already seeing one for a few weeks???) But what about the prediction that according to the transactions we should be at $2k already? I guess I've seen that around here somewhere...

You should keep two things separate: how well the data is modeled, and how well the model predicts future data.

For example, you'll note that the local peaks of the transactions (early 2013, late 2013) come well after the peak in price. And how to extrapolate from the transaction graph into the future is an entirely different question, imo.

I picked the "plateau" phases on purpose. In my opinion, the price of around $100 last year was an important milestone. Took the market a while to understand that we won't go below it again for any substantial amount of time, but also that it takes some time to go above it.

Feels similar now, with 500s instead of low 100s.

(Subjective argumentation above, I know... Dismiss it freely )

Nah, I think it's a nice assumption! I like to see how people feel about current prices and whether they think that they're sustainable or we're even about to go higher. Then the whole Mt. Gox willy bot thing needs to be addressed. We haven't seen a bubble without willy yet, and some people claim we need that bot. But who knows... I'm not sure what to believe. But remain optimistic!

Your rendition of the facts here seem questionable, namely:  "We haven't seen a bubble without willy yet."  That framing of the facts helps to support the fallacious argument that "we need that bot for a bubble."    Seems like a fairly significant distraction in order to attempt to further entice peeps (weak hands) out of their coins.  The willy bot may have facilitated that last bubble in terms of timing and magnitude... but even if so that facilitation does NOT mean that willy bot caused the bubble... accordingly, another bubble will be coming, with or without a willy-like bot b/c in the end, various downward price manipulators or only going to be able to keep prices down for so long... maybe they might be able to keep it down for another year.. but i really doubt it and probably they would be lucky to keep prices down more than another 4 months

[JayJuanGee]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

yes... made up and logically inconsistent facts of a troll...

[blatchcorn]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!? 

Lol, do you think when China will ban Bitcoin, and price will just move down to 10 points.
Then you are on wrong place, just stop trading bitoin or soon you will lose so much.

I was just joking around 

[JayJuanGee]

I actually hope that we stay flat like this for several more years, because each week my dad gives me $10 allowance and I like to put half of that toward bitcoin. In 4 more years, I can have 2 full bitcoin!

Hmm, that's a great model, isn't it? One can aford losing all, and can be always in a position buying when price falls.

I failed to adapt that model. Pathetically, I bot too heavy  during the peak. My remaining capital does not compensate if market falls further.

What shall I do? I've got to hodl, and buy regularly to lower my average, with my affordable allowance. Any one give me some suggestions?

Another troll like post... but i will entertain it...

Yes, a rookie mistake to buy too much when the prices is high and to blow all your wadd in exuberance... yet with bitcoin, you will get your money back, sooner or later, as long as you do NOT attempt to trade... b/c you likely do not know what the fuck you are doing.. like most traders.. and attempt to continue to buy in ... in order to keep bringing down your average buy in price.... in the end (maybe a day or maybe 2 years) the odds are pretty great that BTC prices are going to go to a new ATH.. and then you can either cash out b/c you do NOT know what you are doing.. or just cash out some or just continue to stay in BTC... probably it is good for you to come to your own judgements about this and to continue to monitor the extent to which you want to get out or to redistribute your total investment portfolio

[JayJuanGee]

Price tanking hard again, what's up here? Any news triggering that sell-off or is it just another random dump or some miners that can't hold up their selling any longer? Not an especially beautiful sight

I thought we already established that miners do NOT dump on the market.. these miners generally sell off market.. the dumpers on the exchanges are generally the manipulators.. or attempted downward price manipulators...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[iram3130]

ZOMG Bitcoin fell $10!  What happened, did China ban Bitcoin!? 

Lol, do you think when China will ban Bitcoin, and price will just move down to 10 points.
Then you are on wrong place, just stop trading bitoin or soon you will lose so much.

I was just joking around 

Then it was very bad joke, you need to improve your humour part.

P.S. I did not smiled on your joke.

[JayJuanGee]

to be honest , I am not sure what to think, the price still doesn't seem right to me and the trend is just broken, I haven't been confused like this in a long time, I remember about this time a year ago I went all in and I can still remember the confidence I had about my decision... I just don't know why I don't have that anymore !!!

You are describing yourself as NOT having the confidence b/c you are trying to frame some credible story in order to downwardly manipulate the price... but instead you are pathetic....

There are just as many (and more) reasons to be optimistic about BTC this year as compared with last year.. so stop being so selectively blind by your own book and by your having had put a large sum of your BTC into LTC... sorry about your losses, but what a stupid gamble.

In other words, you probably have good reason to be confused... b/c you seem to be a dumb ass.