Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HarmonLi]

I don't believe in charts or past trends. I just have a "gut feel" that price will go up in long term. Holding until it goes below $400 or above $700. Will buy more below $400; sell some when above $700.

Are you not worried by the crash at all? I mean I'm quite impressed if you're not, but I think it's at least somewhat worrying in these difficult times, after all. No one knows which way it'll go eventually...

[inca]

I don't believe in charts or past trends. I just have a "gut feel" that price will go up in long term. Holding until it goes below $400 or above $700. Will buy more below $400; sell some when above $700.

Are you not worried by the crash at all? I mean I'm quite impressed if you're not, but I think it's at least somewhat worrying in these difficult times, after all. No one knows which way it'll go eventually...

What crash?

[kireinaha]

Even the most ardent long term investors are growing tired of the slow bleed down and want to drop this under performing investment. So that's what we're seeing now... it's not manipulation.

You can't blame them; asking people to hold a stake in relatively new technology that has been in a bear market for 9 months is a pretty tall order, and at this stage in the technology life cycle, is a pretty good indicator that interest has simply dried up and moved elsewhere. We all know the "honey badger" and all that, but continuing to hold in this kind of market is basically a leap of faith.

[Sandia]

Are you not worried by the crash at all? I mean I'm quite impressed if you're not, but I think it's at least somewhat worrying in these difficult times, after all. No one knows which way it'll go eventually...

What crash?

I think he is talking about the big 30-50% one day dives in November or December, or that 80% drop in March on Bitfinex.  I am sure he is not talking about the measly 2% drop yesterday.  No sane person would call 2% a crash...I hope.

[hmmkay]

Anyone noticed that the value of Bitcoin has risen quite a lot the last half year, regardless the price of bitcoin?

Whoa what do you mean by that? The price is the measure of how valuable a Bitcoin is, isn't it? I don't seem to be getting what you're trying to say here. Please enlighten us, man

The utility of bitcoin is the sum of the benefits derived from its applications by its users.

The value of bitcoin is the size of its transactional economy over a given period.

The price of bitcoin is wherever the market happens to clear.

Only in the case of perfectly rational actors under perfectly efficient condtions will these three coincide.

I don't agree, this is just delusional stuff you are talking, a value of a bitcoin is exactly what it can be exchanged for (in terms of goods and services) compared to what can a dollar (or gold, Euro, Yen...) be exchanged for.

Edit: with this logic: gold has no value and a visa card have more value than a Bitcoin.... see this is just horseshit.

Gold didn't have value until enough people started to 'like' it. Same holds true for bitcoin.

[JorgeStolfi]

"Price" = what one paid or must pay to acquire something.  An objective concept (everyone who knows how much was paid or is being charged for some item will agree about its price), but is typically different for each transaction, even for successive transactions with the same item.  "Market price" = price of the last transaction of the item in some open market, or largest bid or lowest ask in said market.

"Value" = how much one would pay to acquire that item, or charge to sell it.  A subjective concept (typically the same item will have different values for different people, even at the same time and place), may not be clearly known by the person himself, and may change quickly and radically as the person's mood, ideas, and circumstances change.

In a free and conscious commercial transaction, typically the item has higher value to the buyer than to the seller, and the price is some amount between the two values.

There's  an old quip, "an Economist knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing." 

[Moria843]

I don't believe in charts or past trends. I just have a "gut feel" that price will go up in long term. Holding until it goes below $400 or above $700. Will buy more below $400; sell some when above $700.

Are you not worried by the crash at all? I mean I'm quite impressed if you're not, but I think it's at least somewhat worrying in these difficult times, after all. No one knows which way it'll go eventually...

No I'm not worried. I've done with bitcoin mining and bitcoin investment purchases the same as I've done with stocks. That is to put yourself in the position that no matter what happens, you have something to be happy about. That equilibrium point is different for everyone. But even if it crashes I can be happy I didn't buy too much; if it does great I can be happy I bought enough. It's finding your equilibrium point for different investments. My bitcoin equilibrium point is between 100 to 200 BTC and I'm at 112 right now. Average cost per BTC so far about $375.

[adamstgBit]

"Price" = what one paid or must pay to acquire something.  An objective concept (everyone who knows how much was paid or is being charged for some item will agree about its price), but is typically different for each transaction, even for successive transactions with the same item.  "Market price" = price of the last transaction of the item in some open market, or largest bid or lowest ask in said market.

"Value" = how much one would pay to acquire that item, or charge to sell it.  A subjective concept (typically the same item will have different values for different people, even at the same time and place), may not be clearly known by the person himself, and may change quickly and radically as the person's mood, ideas, and circumstances change.

In a free and conscious commercial transaction, typically the item has higher value to the buyer than to the seller, and the price is some amount between the two values.

There's  an old quip, "an Economist knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing." 

 

bitcoins Price / Value has stabilized, but it stabilized at like 1 : 10

given all the things you can do with a bitcoin, bitcoin enables real business all over the world, its no joke,  it will have a significant impact in the coming years, it really should be priced in the 5-10K range

pretty sure the market will eventually catch up and price these precious bits closer to "value"   ...maybe go overvalued for a few weeks  

[hd060053]

weakest bid side on huobi ever... this doesn't look good. Only bitstamp is blocking the total capitulation now with 6k to 540.

[Schickeria]

I don't believe in charts or past trends. I just have a "gut feel" that price will go up in long term. Holding until it goes below $400 or above $700. Will buy more below $400; sell some when above $700.

Are you not worried by the crash at all? I mean I'm quite impressed if you're not, but I think it's at least somewhat worrying in these difficult times, after all. No one knows which way it'll go eventually...

Worrying about price dumps on high risk investments is like trying to learn to swim in sharks territory.

[Richy_T]

Sigmund Freud may have said it, but it was originally spoken by Mr. Carl Sagan.

Sigmund Freud
Born: May 6, 1856, Příbor, Czech Republic
Died: September 23, 1939, London, United Kingdom

Carl Sagan
Born: November 9, 1934, Brooklyn, NY
Died: December 20, 1996, Seattle, WA

So unlikely to be the case. Likely it's apocryphal but I always heard it attributed to Einstein.

[Bittings]

Sigmund Freud may have said it, but it was originally spoken by Mr. Carl Sagan.

Sigmund Freud
Born: May 6, 1856, Příbor, Czech Republic
Died: September 23, 1939, London, United Kingdom

Carl Sagan
Born: November 9, 1934, Brooklyn, NY
Died: December 20, 1996, Seattle, WA

So unlikely to be the case. Likely it's apocryphal but I always heard it attributed to Einstein.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kireinaha]

Sigmund Freud may have said it, but it was originally spoken by Mr. Carl Sagan.

Sigmund Freud
Born: May 6, 1856, Příbor, Czech Republic
Died: September 23, 1939, London, United Kingdom

Carl Sagan
Born: November 9, 1934, Brooklyn, NY
Died: December 20, 1996, Seattle, WA

So unlikely to be the case. Likely it's apocryphal but I always heard it attributed to Einstein.

Yes, an earlier poster attributed it an Alcoholic Anonymous handbook from 1979, which may or may not have been penned by Carl Sagan

[Richy_T]

Sigmund Freud may have said it, but it was originally spoken by Mr. Carl Sagan.

Sigmund Freud
Born: May 6, 1856, Příbor, Czech Republic
Died: September 23, 1939, London, United Kingdom

Carl Sagan
Born: November 9, 1934, Brooklyn, NY
Died: December 20, 1996, Seattle, WA

So unlikely to be the case. Likely it's apocryphal but I always heard it attributed to Einstein.

Yes, an earlier poster attributed it an Alcoholic Anonymous handbook from 1979, which may or may not have been penned by Carl Sagan

I'm running a little behind...

[romneymoney]

Sigmund Freud may have said it, but it was originally spoken by Mr. Carl Sagan.

Sigmund Freud
Born: May 6, 1856, Příbor, Czech Republic
Died: September 23, 1939, London, United Kingdom

Carl Sagan
Born: November 9, 1934, Brooklyn, NY
Died: December 20, 1996, Seattle, WA

So unlikely to be the case. Likely it's apocryphal but I always heard it attributed to Einstein.

Yes, an earlier poster attributed it an Alcoholic Anonymous handbook from 1979, which may or may not have been penned by Carl Sagan

I'm pretty sure they said Narcotics Anonymous but not going back to confirm that 

[Richy_T]

I don't care what they taught you in school but a value of a thing is what it can be exchanged for (which in our age is compared to the currency we use)...the price is defined by supply and demand.

That is the *price*. Value is subjective. A photograph of my grandmother would have more value to me than to you. When people value things differently, they may exchange things in something we call "trade" with a net increase in value to both. This is the foundation of a free market.

[Richy_T]

old coins are coming out of the closet?

gaycoin is over.

On a more serious note, by offering definitions of distinct concepts of utility, value, and price, I was hoping to provide clarity.  Value, in particular, being rather abstract, tends to be used in especially diverse ways.  mmitech (who was quoted above, from behind the wall of ignore) infers a useful point:  Exchange value is one of the diverse ways in which the word "value" is used.  I offered a definition of "value" which was intended to add clarity by being technically accurate, a term of the monetary art, but it can't hope to do justice to the range of ordinary English language.  Perhaps the best way to add clarity in ordinary language is with modifiers, as e.g. "exchange value", "relative value", "functional value", and "monetary value".

You were correct in your statements. There is an old saying, "He knows the price of everything and the value of nothing." They are two distinct concepts.

Man, my *third* strike on being behind the curve this morning :/

[johnwest]

Market price again trying to take support around 560.
It's good let's move again to 590-600.

[empowering]

Nothing to do with school, I am just surprised we are back here again.


ok ... so do you have a wife or children?  I usually do this with hand drawn pictures as the example but today I think fingers suit better...

So say you have a wife and children ? How valuable to you (and them) are their fingers?  to me they are WORTH nothing...  and the PRICE I give you for them
on the open market is $0

Lets switch this around- do your wife and childrens fingers have any VALUE to you? if so how much are they WORTH to you? and what PRICE will you pay to keep them all in one place with fingers attached to loved ones? more than my PRICE of $0? I bet and why is that? it is because they have more VALUE to you then they do to me, for me the PRICE  for your loved ones fingers is $0 for you I imagine and hope a very large figure lets say $100,000 or more


something something <snip>

look above, I did read to the end of that line and there you lost me.... a value of thing is not determined by my self only, it is determined by a whole community, if we think that the value (call it price if you want) of 1 Liter of milk is worth 1$ but then one farmer based on the miracle of grass and water going into the cow and turning out as milk and shit and pee think that that liter of milk is worth at least $1000, that farmer is going to have some bad time selling his shit. but if 40% of farmers think so then there is 40% of greedy motherfuckers.

we can go on and on trying to define this (I am wrong with the possibility of being right), but I personally am not buying that theory, wherever I go I pay €€ as a value of a thing. the value translate to that €€ and I didn't see yet in my life a community agrees on something having more value but lower price!!! in fact that just doesn't make any sense to me.

  

I agree to an extent- and I was reducing to the absurd to make a point...  Also I should have said your loved ones fingers were WORTH nothing to me not the PRICE was nothing to me... price is price and value is subjective. PRICE and VALUE do have a linkage - not saying they do not, but they ARE DIFFERENT.

....and yes when you broaden it out of course the community plays a part - but as I said I reduced to the absurd, so in the fingers example you did represent the entire community....... but my point remains...  PRICE and VALUE and WORTH are different things no matter how you dice it up BUT they are all interlinked and interlinked with SUPPLY AND DEMAND... but interlinked as they may be they are still different things....

Price and value affect each other however price and value are not the same thing.. there is also supply relationship and demand relationship and market equilibrium (competition) to take into account fair enough...

And yes sometimes society does place a lower agreed price on something with a higher value to society- for example society as a whole places more VALUE on water than they do on mobile phones, but water is cheaper than mobile phones...even cheap crappy ones (and no it makes no difference that your mobile phone company gave you your phone for free)   Water is more valuable than mobile phones to society an everyone knows this (indeed we need water to make mobile phones) and at the moment mobile phones have a higher price than water...but if at anypoint water became scarce (i.e supply dries up) then water will be in higher demand, with less supply, and somewhere where equilibrium is reached the market will agree upon PRICE.  Same with phones- less supply, higher demand, and the price will increase... but water still has more VALUE to the collective than mobile phones.

Even though subjective and collective VALUE of water is agreed by all to be very high (regardless of supply and demand) however its PRICE will be lower or higher depending on the supply and demand.  


Also if I want to dig a hole, to dig for water say... to survive, then I may pay the price of $15 to one manufacturer of shovels, or I may get a better deal and pay $10
from a different supplier... however the reason I place any VALUE on the shovel, is because I need the HOLE... the VALUE is not in the shovel itself, but it is in the HOLE it can dig...   of course I will buy the same shovel from the person selling it for the cheapest price...  

.....but say there was a shovel shortage, and  shovel prices went up... all of a sudden the PRICE of a shovel is $200 or $250 from their competitor... the quesiton now is... how much is the HOLE worth to me? is it worth the $200 PRICE of the SHOVEL? if the answer is no, then I am NOT paying that PRICE for that shovel because the HOLE is not worth $200, the shovel simply does not jusify the PRICE because the VALUE of the shovel is in the HOLE and as I can for example pay my neighour $50 to take water from his stream for the year... therefore I am not going to pay the price of $200-250 for a shovel, because the PRICE of the shovel really did not matter... what mattered was the value I placed in theshovel, because I needed to dig a HOLE with it, that is the only reason the shovel had any VALUE to me... in this case if the PRICE exceeded the VALUE I get for the shovel,  then I would not pay that PRICE...because the PRICE was higher than the VALUE to me.

 However if my neighour placed a price on using his stream at $500 for the year, then all of a sudden maybe I would have placed a higher VALUE on the shovel beause the value of the shovel is really the value of the the HOLE I NEED TO DIG  in that case I would pay the shovel salesman his $200 , and dug my hole ,
in this case the VALUE exceeds the PRICE and the shovel salesman gets his $200-$250. However the PRICE of the shovel only comes into play if it exceeds the VALUE that the shovel represents.. it could be $10, $50 or $500 - it all depends on the utility of the shovel to me.

So if VALUE and PRICE can swap places like this... does it not stand to reason that they are NOT the same thing?


Maybe Aminorex is right however in that we may be arguing semantics here...

Talking of digging holes...