Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DaRude]

You think there will be a dip today because of the auction?
If so, how deep?

Guess, just for guessing:

To have a positive effect, this auction would have to repeat the outcome of the previous one: a single winner, who can convince the market that he bought for a "good price" and does not intend to dump the coins.

However, that seems a bit unlikely, because:

* There are almost twice as many coins being auctioned this time, and twice as many coming in a few months.

* There seems to be much less excitement this time about those coins. (Last time, some even argued that those coins would have extra value as collectibles -- "the" coins from "the" Silk Road -- and/or for having been blessed by the US government. I have seen no such claims this time.)

* Therefore, it is more likely that, this time, there will be several winners.

* There is even a small chance that some lots will be unsold. (AFAIK, the USMS can ignore bids for any reason, including them being too low.)

* If there are several winners, some of them may remain unknown.

* If there are several winners, or unknown winners, or unsold lots, the market will probably assume that the coins were bought below market -- suggesting that the big players are bearish;

* If the market thinks that some of the coins were bought below market, it will fear that they be dumped for profit.

Moreover, the price increase after the previous outcome was announced only reversed the drop that occurred when the auction was announced.  There was no such drop this time, so why should there be a recovery?

Thus, if I had to guess, I would guess "no effect, or a drop".

How much of VC's $ was injected in BTC related companies at a time of the first auction and how much is there now

[podyx]

Wtf is going on with These dumps?

pre auction dumps??

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macsga]

At last... some volume!

[hdbuck]

regular portfolio: http://www.businessinsider.com/most-valuable-substances-by-weight-2014-9?op=1

(+ bitcoin of course)

[molecular]

Careful with the christmas presents, ladies and gentlemen. Hold on to your wallets! Remember Dickens's uncle Scrooge. An if you plan to soften up: unlike Scrooge, you must wait until BTCUSD is 1000!

Dicken's uncle scrooge?

Damn, I only know this one.

That one has so many stories, don't know if there is one where he actually spends his money.

He does make investments when he sees opportunity.

[DaRude]

Wtf is going on with These dumps?

pre auction dumps??

Looks like china cashing out.

[podyx]

Wtf is going on with These dumps?

pre auction dumps??

Looks like china cashing out.

Lol joke?

[noobtrader]

Wtf is going on with These dumps?

pre auction dumps??

Looks like china cashing out.

too bad i havent sold yet... back to 375 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bitcoins101]

People seem to have forgotten how badly bitcoin tanked last time there was an auction. It was only shortly after the auction completed that the bitcoin price went up a bit.

Yet, this time the price did not decrease because of the news of an auction. A sell order like this should move down the market, but it hasn't really so far, which means we may be having a little bit of a correction here. I do not expect much positive movement between now and when the auction is over, as positive movement as a direct result of a sell order is a complete nonsequitur. I also don't expect much positive movement right after the auction, as there is no ground to make up - bitcoiners are treating this auction like some big investor will just buy them all up like last time, so a good result is already priced in right now.

It's a bad week to be long, with one exception: if you think the price is being artificially deflated so that someone can buy the coins at auction for a lower price.

[JayJuanGee]

People seem to have forgotten how badly bitcoin tanked last time there was an auction. It was only shortly after the auction completed that the bitcoin price went up a bit.

Yet, this time the price did not decrease because of the news of an auction. A sell order like this should move down the market, but it hasn't really so far, which means we may be having a little bit of a correction here. I do not expect much positive movement between now and when the auction is over, as positive movement as a direct result of a sell order is a complete nonsequitur. I also don't expect much positive movement right after the auction, as there is no ground to make up - bitcoiners are treating this auction like some big investor will just buy them all up like last time, so a good result is already priced in right now.

It's a bad week to be long, with one exception: if you think the price is being artificially deflated so that someone can buy the coins at auction for a lower price.

Yes, here is an example in which the exception swallows the rule.  There may be a dip down to $350; however, likely BTC prices will be allowed to  rise after the auction bid times are completed.  Surely some other shoe could drop by December 4 or December 5 to affect BTC prices - yet is seems fairly highly unlikely that BTC prices are going to get any meaningful price rally prior to the majority of the auction bids being in (which it seems likely that most of the bidders are to wait until the last couple of hours of the auction to submit their bids)..


Also, it seems highly likely that BTC prices will get some kind of rally after the auction, and thereafter, it is possible that BTC prices will never again return to the $300s - but never say never in bitcoinlandia.   

[fonsie]

People seem to have forgotten how badly bitcoin tanked last time there was an auction. It was only shortly after the auction completed that the bitcoin price went up a bit.

Yet, this time the price did not decrease because of the news of an auction. A sell order like this should move down the market, but it hasn't really so far, which means we may be having a little bit of a correction here. I do not expect much positive movement between now and when the auction is over, as positive movement as a direct result of a sell order is a complete nonsequitur. I also don't expect much positive movement right after the auction, as there is no ground to make up - bitcoiners are treating this auction like some big investor will just buy them all up like last time, so a good result is already priced in right now.

It's a bad week to be long, with one exception: if you think the price is being artificially deflated so that someone can buy the coins at auction for a lower price.

Or perhaps, nobody gives a fuck about those 50000btc, considering the volume that's being traded already OTC. Which is probably more than the low volume on the exchanges, just to make the kiddie bears happy by giving them the illusion bitcoin is dying, as I have been told numerous times by the trolls.

Either way:

Troll=ugly
Bear=smelly
Bull=gracious animal

 

[explorer]

Explanation

Why is ChartBuddy going bald?

[macsga]

Explanation

Why is ChartBuddy going bald?

It suffers a horrible death.

[Omikifuse]

Explanation

Why is ChartBuddy going bald?

Not the first time ChartBuddy becomes ChartBuggy.

I guess it is because of technical problems in Bitstamp

[empowering]

Explanation

Why is ChartBuddy going bald?

Male pixel baldness?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Explanation

Why is ChartBuddy going bald?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lay785]

bidders stand to benefit from lowering the prices.

Seems like they are finally getting to it.