Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[phoenix1]

Ughh don't buy into all this trolling "On Friday, December 5, by 5:00pm EST, the USMS will notify the winning bidder/bidders that their bid/bids has/have been selected." http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/?m=1
Meaning all those that bid will know if they won. Meaning if i low ball bid
1-i get a small chance to get discounted coins bellow market which i can dump profit $$$
2-i'd be the first one to know if my bid wasn't selected then i can front run the new and buy coins on the market. Or better yet run the syndicate so you're now risking your own money, be the first one to get the news, act on it, distribute news to your syndicates(?) let them act on it, post on tweeter that your bid wasn't selected and watch the buying frenzy profit $$$

Bottom line everyone should get a feel whether the coins were bought bellow/above market by Friday so watching the coins move from that address a week later is pretty useless

(1) is zero risk for a winner clearly, and is risk free, if intention was to arb and not hold (I am assuming you mean selling the 'about to be received' coins, not buying more ... that makes no sense)
Not seeing how (2) works for a low-ball loser. Might work for a high bid loser who thinks market will adjust to the (unknown to him) winning price or is desperate to buy. Depends on risk appetite.
But I agree with your conclusion that some participants will have possible valuable information on Friday that will likely be reflected in the price.

EDIT: Actually, unless you win them all, there is very little to discern as you will not know the range of winning bids, so unless you only intended to arb and got a few low enough to do so, or bid very high for a few lots and lost and want coins at a price they have been available for for some time (duh), anything else is pretty much guesswork, much as all of this is

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Explanation

Wishful charting, buddy

[bitcoinmining]

Still dumping, Daily change is %-2.30 right now... @BTC-e BTC is $370, that's lowest in the market.

[billyjoeallen]

Could notlambchop be TERA's alter ego??

 

Not a chance. TERA was a master trader and I wish she was still here. I learned a lot from her.

[DaRude]

Ughh don't buy into all this trolling "On Friday, December 5, by 5:00pm EST, the USMS will notify the winning bidder/bidders that their bid/bids has/have been selected." http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/dpr-bitcoins/?m=1
Meaning all those that bid will know if they won. Meaning if i low ball bid
1-i get a small chance to get discounted coins bellow market which i can dump profit $$$
2-i'd be the first one to know if my bid wasn't selected then i can front run the new and buy coins on the market. Or better yet run the syndicate so you're now risking your own money, be the first one to get the news, act on it, distribute news to your syndicates(?) let them act on it, post on tweeter that your bid wasn't selected and watch the buying frenzy profit $$$

Bottom line everyone should get a feel whether the coins were bought bellow/above market by Friday so watching the coins move from that address a week later is pretty useless

(1) is zero risk for a winner clearly, and is risk free, if intention was to arb and not hold (I am assuming you mean selling the 'about to be received' coins, not buying more ... that makes no sense)
Not seeing how (2) works for a low-ball loser. Might work for a high bid loser who thinks market will adjust to the (unknown to him) winning price or is desperate to buy. Depends on risk appetite.
But I agree with your conclusion that some participants will have possible valuable information on Friday that will likely be reflected in the price.

EDIT: Actually, unless you win them all, there is very little to discern as you will not know the range of winning bids, so unless you only intended to arb and got a few low enough to do so, or bid very high for a few lots and lost and want coins at a price they have been available for for some time (duh), anything else is pretty much guesswork, much as all of this is

Right depends on your definition of low-ball and high-ball looser. Clearly not winning with a bid at $1 BTC brings you little useful info. But if i don't win at say $370 and ALL lots sold above that, that'd be enough insider info to go long at market $375

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

[hdbuck]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

you are short now?

[billyjoeallen]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

you are short now?

For the first time in four years, I am margin short and looking for slightly higher prices just to sell more on margin. I have the ability to sell a lot more. It's gonna have to get worse before it gets much better.

[Erdogan]

Dumpers gotta dump. Thats what they do.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Do we know what time the auction is being held? This is so exciting

[inca]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

you are short now?

For the first time in four years, I am margin short and looking for slightly higher prices just to sell more on margin. I have the ability to sell a lot more. It's gonna have to get worse before it gets much better.

Why does it have to get a lot worse? There has been a nearly one year long bear market already. The price is barely a third of the previous high even now.

1w macd about to go green.

Good luck shorting!

[findftp]

...
For the first time in four years, I am margin short and looking for slightly higher prices just to sell more on margin. I have the ability to sell a lot more. It's gonna have to get worse before it gets much better.

How much better does it have to get when you are in the game since 4 years? I see you're on this forum since may 2011.
What are your plans? Or are you just trading for fun?

[oda.krell]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

you are short now?

For the first time in four years, I am margin short and looking for slightly higher prices just to sell more on margin. I have the ability to sell a lot more. It's gonna have to get worse before it gets much better.

That's a valid pattern, alright. But the question is right now, are we currently more in May '14 (after the market dragged out the consolidation now compared to then), or are we in late July.

In the first case, the actual major peak is still ahead of us, in the second case, 450/470 was the major peak, it just didn't stick (even less than in May).

By nothing much more than the volume picture*, I'm slightly leaning to the first case, but it's a close call. We'll get our confirmation soon enough.

* Correction: by total volume, and mid-term (~100 day) momentum.

[NotLambchop]

...
Why does it have to get a lot worse? There has been a nearly one year long bear market already. The price is barely a third of the previous high even now...

"This, indeed, is despair."--Soren Kierkegaard

*Seriously tho, you'll be just fine...

[billyjoeallen]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

you are short now?

For the first time in four years, I am margin short and looking for slightly higher prices just to sell more on margin. I have the ability to sell a lot more. It's gonna have to get worse before it gets much better.

Why does it have to get a lot worse? There has been a nearly one year long bear market already. The price is barely a third of the previous high even now.

1w macd about to go green.

Good luck shorting!

It has to get worse because of us! Good traders buy low and sell high, reducing volatility. We bought too high and increased volatility, scaring away the hedge funds and big money that was supposed to fuel the next rally. Bitcoin is a medium of exchange and a unit of account, but thanks to those of us who sold far too little at the top, it is a piss poor store of value. We didn't have enough profits to re-invest during the bear market. I blame myself among others.

[inca]

There has been a pattern that has repeated three times in this bear market and is in the process of repeating again, where there is a crash, a bounce, a pause, a spike, a second bounce at a much higher level and then a slow dissipation of all upward momentum leading to the next crash. We are in the dissipation period now. The key thing to watch for is the volume as the price approaches support levels on the way down. Low volume= very bad. Stay in cash even if you close your short positions. High volume means the possibility of a double bottom.

I've lost a few houses worth of money identifying this pattern, so a wise person should learn from my mistakes. The fact that it was money I made on the way up is some consolation. Still, opportunity lost is opportunity lost.

you are short now?

For the first time in four years, I am margin short and looking for slightly higher prices just to sell more on margin. I have the ability to sell a lot more. It's gonna have to get worse before it gets much better.

Why does it have to get a lot worse? There has been a nearly one year long bear market already. The price is barely a third of the previous high even now.

1w macd about to go green.

Good luck shorting!

It has to get worse because of us! Good traders buy low and sell high, reducing volatility. We bought too high and increased volatility, scaring away the hedge funds and big money that was supposed to fuel the next rally. Bitcoin is a medium of exchange and a unit of account, but thanks to those of us who sold far too little at the top, it is a piss poor store of value. We didn't have enough profits to re-invest during the bear market. I blame myself among others.

Either the price of btc rises significantly in the next 24 months or it fails. I see no signs of failure so far.

[billyjoeallen]

Either the price of btc rises significantly in the next 24 months or it fails. I see no signs of failure so far.

I agree. I'm still a long term bull, or I'd be dumping my cold storage also and not just my trading stash. 24 months is an eternity in bitcoin time. A lot can happen between now and then.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation