Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dreamspark]

Six hour moving average just crossed. Even though I'm short, I really didn't expect it to go down so far so fast. I need a higher price so I can short some more.

So far so fast? Were $18 over the last five days. I used to enjoy your postings until you got crazy and missed the May run up. Sounds like much of the same talk now as then. Telling people they needed to sell now and help you defend the bottom etc. The fact that you think we need more people to loose money (the price going down) to attract new investors is just crazy. Investor - "That Bitcoin thing I was thinking about investing in just hit $100 down from an ATH of $1200, seems like a great investment to me" /s. Other than the fact your clearly trying to increase your stash I just don't understand where your coming from.

The thing that worries me about hodlers (and I was one) is that you aren't going to have much money to help stop the crash because you didn't sell anything at the higher level.

The crash wouldn't even start if people didn't sell, hodlers selling to defend the bottom just increases the pace and depth of the drop (if there is one) scaring even more investors away.

[cryyptc]

Six hour moving average just crossed. Even though I'm short, I really didn't expect it to go down so far so fast. I need a higher price so I can short some more.

volume preceeds price as usual as long as they are able to quickly convert the siezed coins for fiat all is groovey!


^^ shit is about to get ugly ! >>  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6qa0Bg_guU

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shanecoins]

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/12/04/almost-300m-in-bitcoin-spent-during-black-friday-and-cyber-monda/      well some genuine positive news

[dreamspark]

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2014/12/04/almost-300m-in-bitcoin-spent-during-black-friday-and-cyber-monda/      well some genuine positive news

Thats the most misleading article Ive ever seen. That's the total transaction volume across the whole of the network which != bitcoins spent. Particularly not spent in direct relation to black friday or cyper monday which the article is trying to suggest.

[octaft]

Just a couple of points to things I read in the past few pages:

What defines a good troll in their own mind (and in my mind) is whether they get responses. That's all they care about. Trolls are fantasy creatures: forget about them, and they go away. The more who don't respond (either through ignoring or the actual ignore button), the weaker the troll gets.

You know what's better than buying at the top then all the way down, though? Skipping the buying at the top part and just starting on the way down. Buying at something like $1000+ during the last run makes little sense to me, there's so much risk relative to the reward after that enormous rise, why not just hold back on your FOMO, chill, and wait for the inevitable plummet that ALWAYS comes after a huge run-up like that?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Price kinda stinks.

I expected a rise to about 400 dollars today.

[NotLambchop]

Are you guys super sure this thing will take you to the moon?  It doesn't look very safe, I dunno...



*Don't mean to be a Negative Nancy.  Good luck with your Moonshot.

[macsga]

The thing that worries me about hodlers (and I was one) is that you aren't going to have much money to help stop the crash because you didn't sell anything at the higher level.

Who's going to sell at the next ALT ATH and beyond?

@billyjoeallen:
You don't seem to get it. I don't care what the price is nor about the volatility. I've a target of my own which IF (and that's a bold IF) it ever reaches there I will sell a tiny portion of my stash. You can follow whatever strategy you like and it's fine by me, by all means. I just don't trade. It served me well so far...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

The thing that worries me about hodlers (and I was one) is that you aren't going to have much money to help stop the crash because you didn't sell anything at the higher level.

Who's going to sell at the next ALT ATH and beyond?

@billyjoeallen:
You don't seem to get it. I don't care what the price is nor about the volatility. I've a target of my own which IF (and that's a bold IF) it ever reaches there I will sell a tiny portion of my stash. You can follow whatever strategy you like and it's fine by me, by all means. I just don't trade. It served me well so far...

Where do you keep your stash mate?

I HODL a decent amount of coins now.
I've got them all in the BTC core client.
I feel I should maybe start using paper wallets.

[jonoiv]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macsga]

Where do you keep your stash mate?

I HODL a decent amount of coins now.
I've got them all in the BTC core client.
I feel I should maybe start using paper wallets.

Excellent question.
First you need to learn how to make a secure cold wallet. My steps of choice are following:

1. Boot up a linux (ubuntu) live cd
2. DL bitcoin client
3. Go offline (pull the net plug)
4. Install the BTC core client (offline)
5. Run the app. This will create a wallet and then encrypt it with a STRONG password of choice
6. Create a new address and write it down manually (careful)
7. Back up your wallet on a CDROM
8. Send a tiny amount of your current stash to the address you wrote down.
9. Verify that's everything went smooth by checking the transaction on blockchain. Then send the rest
10.Make 3x copies on different mediums of your backed up wallet and store them in 3 different places.

Cheers.

[JimboToronto]

Well good morning Bitcoinland.

So we had our big pre-auction dump and the price is still over $370? LOL

Bitcoin Bozo bounces back yet again.



Time to run down and buy a few more coins before the price rises too much. Had a good day yesterday so I have a couple of extra grand of fiat in my pocket screaming to be sold for Bitcoin.

This little dip couldn't have been timed better.

[Kupsi]

Price kinda stinks.

I expected a rise to about 400 dollars today.

[NotLambchop]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear
Now it's time to leave the capsule if you deheheheare

[JorgeStolfi]

Dollar cost averaging means buying 100 at $800 and 200 at $400.  It will result in a gain on the total investment, with p -> 1.0 as t -> oo, if conducted without fail at a constant rate without slippage on a log-normal distributed series of increments.

Thanks for the clarification! 

However, is it necessary to buy the same dollar amount every time?  Is that strategy optimal in some sense, for that model?

If the increments in log(price(t)) have a normal distribution, the expected value of price(t) as t goes to infinity will slowly increase; won't it?  If so, that strategy works in theory because the assumed model is optimistic.   

[billyjoeallen]

Six hour moving average just crossed. Even though I'm short, I really didn't expect it to go down so far so fast. I need a higher price so I can short some more.

So far so fast? Were $18 over the last five days. I used to enjoy your postings until you got crazy and missed the May run up. Sounds like much of the same talk now as then. Telling people they needed to sell now and help you defend the bottom etc. The fact that you think we need more people to loose money (the price going down) to attract new investors is just crazy. Investor - "That Bitcoin thing I was thinking about investing in just hit $100 down from an ATH of $1200, seems like a great investment to me" /s. Other than the fact your clearly trying to increase your stash I just don't understand where your coming from.

The thing that worries me about hodlers (and I was one) is that you aren't going to have much money to help stop the crash because you didn't sell anything at the higher level.

The crash wouldn't even start if people didn't sell, hodlers selling to defend the bottom just increases the pace and depth of the drop (if there is one) scaring even more investors away.

I did miss the runup, but I missed the crash back down also. Obviously I'll get another crack at it and so will everyone else who didn't fall for that bull trap.

Look, I'm still a long term bull, but You gotta admit that the near term momentum is down and this way I'll have more fiat to shore up support. What scares investers away (as opposed to traders) is volatility. We have failed to punish volatility sufficiently. To do that we need to sell when the price goes up as well as buy when it goes down.

[dreamspark]

I did miss the runup, but I missed the crash back down also. Obviously I'll get another crack at it and so will everyone else who didn't fall for that bull trap.

Look, I'm still a long term bull, but You gotta admit that the near term momentum is down and this way I'll have more fiat to shore up support. What scares investers away (as opposed to traders) is volatility. We have failed to punish volatility sufficiently. To do that we need to sell when the price goes up as well as buy when it goes down.

Putting a personal spin on your point of view of selling high and defending the bottom, I sold a chunk during that run, not particularly close to the top but I put that fiat to good use defending sub $300, since then all Ive seen is higher lows and a feeling we have seen the bottom.

In regards to this momentum I completely agree but expected nothing less in the middle of an auction for 50k coins, everyones just looking at each other to make a move. The fact that there was a big dump on stamp and it didn't send us tumbling down, to me demonstrates at least some confidence.

I guess the issue really is that you see this as selling after the price has gone up but for me $275 to $375 over the course of two months doesn't fit into that category.  I certainly dont feel the need to trade this super low volume which I view as due to the auction rather than any normal TA reasoning. Time will tell as always I just personally think its not a great spot to be selling or buying really for that matter.

[billyjoeallen]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

the launch has been delayed due to inclement weather.

Y'all should be happy I'm shorting. If there is a crash, I'll be there to cover my put and if it goes up from here, I'll be force liquidated, driving the price even higher.