Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jonoiv]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

edit: ~$0.75 so far. what does it have to rise to be considered a successful launch? I'm making popcorn.

Don't worry, it may be delayed, but you will get liquidated, i'm sure of that

[billyjoeallen]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

edit: ~$0.75 so far. what does it have to rise to be considered a successful launch? I'm making popcorn.

Don't worry, it may be delayed, but you will get liquidated, i'm sure of that

It would have to spike to $518 if I don't post additional margin (which I can easily). I'm pretty sure I'll have plenty of time to cut my losses if I am wrong before getting a margin call.

a buck fifty melt up (so far) on no volume doesn't tell us very much.

[virtuexru]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

edit: ~$0.75 so far. what does it have to rise to be considered a successful launch? I'm making popcorn.

Don't worry, it may be delayed, but you will get liquidated, i'm sure of that

It would have to spike to $518 if I don't post additional margin (which I can easily). I'm pretty sure I'll have plenty of time to cut my losses if I am wrong before getting a margin call.

People who are day-trading the BTC market are doing it wrong. Lol.

[billyjoeallen]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

edit: ~$0.75 so far. what does it have to rise to be considered a successful launch? I'm making popcorn.

Don't worry, it may be delayed, but you will get liquidated, i'm sure of that

It would have to spike to $518 if I don't post additional margin (which I can easily). I'm pretty sure I'll have plenty of time to cut my losses if I am wrong before getting a margin call.

People who are day-trading the BTC market are doing it wrong. Lol.

You should try it. The swap rate is very attractive. I'm only paying $0.25/day to borrow 50 coins. I can afford to wait and see how this plays out.

[dreamspark]

You should try it. The swap rate is very attractive. I'm only paying $0.25/day to borrow 50 coins. I can afford to wait and see how this plays out.

The swap rate is attractive, not quite as nice as watching that P/L $ figure sink $50 further into the red for every dollar the market climbs 

[jonoiv]

about 1 hour to lift off.  

still waiting.

edit: ~$0.75 so far. what does it have to rise to be considered a successful launch? I'm making popcorn.

Don't worry, it may be delayed, but you will get liquidated, i'm sure of that

It would have to spike to $518 if I don't post additional margin (which I can easily). I'm pretty sure I'll have plenty of time to cut my losses if I am wrong before getting a margin call.

a buck fifty melt up (so far) on no volume doesn't tell us very much.

I personally would like it if you did option 1, please do that, so when you're in stuck in the $500 range waiting for the "price crash" that never happens, you will keep sending more and more in the vain hope you will get to close the short in profit.    

2 points;

1. It's going to rally sooner or later this month, and sub $380 will be as extinct as a magicMexican dinosaur, leaving you up shit creek without a paddle.
2. & If you have so much in reserve, why are you begging for BTC in your signature?

[billyjoeallen]

You should try it. The swap rate is very attractive. I'm only paying $0.25/day to borrow 50 coins. I can afford to wait and see how this plays out.

The swap rate is attractive, not quite as nice as watching that P/L $ figure sink $50 further into the red for every dollar the market climbs 

Compared to watching my net worth plummet for the last year it's not so bad. My net worth rises substantially more than $50 for every $1 up so I'm good. 

[JorgeStolfi]

The site http://www.walletexplorer.com/ tries to analyze the blockchain by clustering addresses into "wallets", where a "wallet" for them is a set of addresses that appear to belong to the same owner.

I could not find an explanation of their algorithm, but I would guess that two addresses are assumed to have the same owner if both appear as inputs to the same transaction -- since both private keys are needed in order to sign such transaction.  Thus, if even if a bitcoin-accepting business uses a separate address for each customer, once some coins in those addresses are dumped at the same time into a common bucket, this algorithm will identify them as belonging to the same owner.

The person running that site has identified several famous "wallets", such as the receiving addresses of BitPay, Coinbase,Bitstamp, etc.. Thus, for example, the following link shows all the traffic into or out of all the addresses that they associate to BitPay, merged together (instead of separated by address): http://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/BitPay.com

With some kludgy hacking, I have collected the data of that "wallet" and plotted the number of transfers into or out of them, per day, and the BTC volume in those operations:





[ Click on the images for the full-size versions. ]

Beware that there may be addresses that belong to BitPay but were missed by the algorithm, so those plots may undercount the actual traffic.  on the other hand, some famous transactions (like the 0.5 M$ house purchase by Josh Zerlan of BFL, or the alleged downpayment of 1 M $ by hashTrade to BFL) can indeed be found in that "wallet".

There are a number of puzzling features in those plots, such as the nearly flat number of deposits per day over the past year (apart from weekly variation).  Basically, those addresses have been receiving 1000--1500 deposits per day, amounting to 500-1000 BTC per day on the average.

There is a Black Friday spike in the number of input transfers (3190 on Nov/28, about 2x the usual number) but not in the total amount of BTC transferred; which presumably means that the ~1500 additional Black Friday purchases were mostly small.  

The data file used in that plot is here.
The coumns are the date and 3 groups of 4 numbers: outputs, shuffles (coins moving between addresses in the same wallet, with zero change in its BTC value) and inputs.  In each group, the four numbers are op count and total BTC moved in that day, then the same accumulated since the start of the file.

Hope it helps.  I hope to post more details later tonight.

[billyjoeallen]

I personally would like it if you did option 1, please do that, so when you're in stuck in the $500 range waiting for the "price crash" that never happens, you will keep sending more and more in the vain hope you will get to close the short in profit.    

2 points;

1. It's going to rally sooner or later this month, and sub $380 will be as extinct as a magicMexican dinosaur, leaving you up shit creek without a paddle.
2. & If you have so much in reserve, why are you begging for BTC in your signature?

Why the hostility? Are you nervous? I also think there will be a rally in a month more or less. I just think it'll go down first.

and I put my address in my signature because someone might give me coins. duh.

[Sellman]

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/12/04/50000-bitcoins-seized-in-silk-road-bust-up-for-auction


"My expectation is that most bids will be aggressively to the downside in the hope of getting a post-Black Friday bargain," he wrote.

Yeah, but you only need one sucker to meet your price. I hope the feds get next to nothing. and I hope the bidders lose money also. I don't approve of buying stolen property. This is somewhat in conflict with my hopes of a price recovery relatively soon, so I guess I can live with any outcome.

Quote!

Think too!!!

[Callahan]

I personally would like it if you did option 1, please do that, so when you're in stuck in the $500 range waiting for the "price crash" that never happens, you will keep sending more and more in the vain hope you will get to close the short in profit.    

2 points;

1. It's going to rally sooner or later this month, and sub $380 will be as extinct as a magicMexican dinosaur, leaving you up shit creek without a paddle.
2. & If you have so much in reserve, why are you begging for BTC in your signature?

Why the hostility? Are you nervous? I also think there will be a rally in a month more or less. I just think it'll go down first.

and I put my address in my signature because someone might give me coins. duh.

Your signature is wrong we can read only 2 lines

[billyjoeallen]

Boom! somebody flinched on BFX. only fifty coins so far, but compared to this no volume crap, it's the first glitch in the "launch".

[jonoiv]

I personally would like it if you did option 1, please do that, so when you're in stuck in the $500 range waiting for the "price crash" that never happens, you will keep sending more and more in the vain hope you will get to close the short in profit.    

2 points;

1. It's going to rally sooner or later this month, and sub $380 will be as extinct as a magicMexican dinosaur, leaving you up shit creek without a paddle.
2. & If you have so much in reserve, why are you begging for BTC in your signature?

Why the hostility? Are you nervous? I also think there will be a rally in a month more or less. I just think it'll go down first.

and I put my address in my signature because someone might give me coins. duh.

Hostility?

Poor Billy



This is real aggression !  

[Bittings]

The site http://www.walletexplorer.com/ tries to analyze the blockchain by clustering addresses into "wallets", where a "wallet" for them is a set of addresses that appear to belong to the same owner.

I could not find an explanation of their algorithm, but I would guess that two addresses are assumed to have the same owner if both appear as inputs to the same transaction -- since both private keys are needed in order to sign such transaction.  Thus, if even if a bitcoin-accepting business uses a separate address for each customer, once some coins in those addresses are dumped at the same time into a common bucket, this algorithm will identify them as belonging to the same owner.

The person running that site has identified several famous "wallets", such as the receiving addresses of BitPay, Coinbase,Bitstamp, etc.. Thus, for example, the following link shows all the traffic into or out of all the addresses that they associate to BitPay, merged together (instead of separated by address): http://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/BitPay.com

With some kludgy hacking, I have collected the data of that "wallet" and plotted the number of transfers into or out of them, per day, and the BTC volume in those operations:





[ Click on the images for the full-size versions. ]

Beware that there may be addresses that belong to BitPay but were missed by the algorithm, so those plots may undercount the actual traffic.  on the other hand, some famous transactions (like the 0.5 M$ house purchase by Josh Zerlan of BFL, or the alleged downpayment of 1 M $ by hashTrade to BFL) can indeed be found in that "wallet".

There are a number of puzzling features in those plots, such as the nearly flat number of deposits per day over the past year (apart from weekly variation).  Basically, those addresses have been receiving 1000--1500 deposits per day, amounting to 500-1000 BTC per day on the average.

There is a Black Friday spike in the number of input transfers (3190 on Nov/28, about 2x the usual number) but not in the total amount of BTC transferred; which presumably means that the ~1500 additional Black Friday purchases were mostly small.  

The data file used in that plot is here.
The coumns are the date and 3 groups of 4 numbers: outputs, shuffles (coins moving between addresses in the same wallet, with zero change in its BTC value) and inputs.  In each group, the four numbers are op count and total BTC moved in that day, then the same accumulated since the start of the file.

Hope it helps.  I hope to post more details later tonight.

Pretty cool site. I plugged in one of my addresses and it picked up on a couple additional ones. Still only found about half my coins, so I feel good about that. 

[jonoiv]

Boom! somebody flinched on BFX. only fifty coins so far, but compared to this no volume crap, it's the first glitch in the "launch".

Yes wiped $0.50 off the price

"SHIT.... GUYS SELL EVERYTHING"

[NotLambchop]

Come share the riches, Bitcoiners!

[podyx]

Bear pennant/flag in the 3m charts?

[N12]

Boom! somebody flinched on BFX. only fifty coins so far, but compared to this no volume crap, it's the first glitch in the "launch".

Bear pennant/flag in the 3m charts?

You guys are one of a kind.

[Davyd05]

Blitz. Id be inclined to think that theyre dime a dozen kind of folks.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation