Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[prophetx]

i think at this point in time bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem.

almost 24 months ago people though that bitcoin would revolutionize the business of international money transfers, people started working on designing ATMs, and fiat to bitcoin exchanges popped up in many jurisdictions. a solution to an old problem.

today we have some ATMs and a healthy number of exchanges, however both of these have very high regulatory costs.  as it turns out much of that "problem" is mostly the creation of various regulatory regimes, since we no longer generally ship around tons of gold on ships, that let us say are in place to allow incumbents to make money along with providing protocols that allow for reporting to governments primarily for reasons related to tax collection, but also the enforcement of embargoes, sanctions and the never ending hunt for organized crime (terror, drugs, etc).

frankly this is not what bitcoin, as one can plainly see, excels at.

one has to go back to the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper and re-read it occasionally to pull out new nuggets of insight based on what has transpired.

While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model.
Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes.  The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for nonreversible
services.

A few things to note here:

1. "the system works well enough for most transactions" means that Satoshi thought that "most transactions" concerning online commerce are handled well by the current system. therefor it is not likely that bitcoin applies to say the purchase of books on amazon.com.  Bitpay, circle and coinbase are sadly barking up the wrong tree.

2. so what is bitcoin perhaps good for?  there answer is right there in the first paragraph: "small casual transactions" and " non-reversible payments for nonreversible services".

What are interactions that may constitute say "small casual transactions"?

1. tipping - this has been relatively successful for reddit and doge it seems
2. online gambling - we can see that the dice sites appear to do decent business
3. ?
4. ??
5.

What are "nonreversible services"?

1. the time stamping of a digital document
2. the use of processing power
3. the use of data storage
4. the escrowing of something of value
5. the execution of a contract between some parties
6. the delivery of data
7.
8.
9.

Now ask yourselves, how many bitcoin services and business do you know which fall into some of these categories?

And then you, I think, shall understand why we are not yet at $10000/btc.

When folks on here can start naming popular services in a majority of these categories, and perhaps others, then we will see not only the foundation for more wide spread adoption but also price.

Most of the investments in the current space by VC are really throwing money into a fire. But I have full confidence that in time (say 2-3 years) other groups that are more nimble and not necessarily driven by rigid business plans will begin to execute on these.  Of course that is the reason why I really like projects like Ethereum, Counterparty and Storj.

You forgot to mention NXT;

[deleted text referring to potential scams]

With NXT; The power will always belong to the few whales.

Sorry but this is the BTC price movement and discussion thread.  i was discussing impacts on longer price movements and what we need to be seeing.

BTW what is up with all the NXT and XRP people these days?  I am totally for technically legit alt coin projects, but these guys just try to shove shit down everyone's throats.

hey guys here is a CLUE.... you you attract more flies with honey then vinegar...  although i guess shit seems to work too... lol

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I think that bitcoin can die if the price is stagnant for long enough.

It's all about the high production cost of coin. A lot of miners are mining with a higher production cost that they can get from the market. Therefore they are accumulating the coins and waiting for better times to sell. This is their desperate hope to earn back their initial investment.
This accumulation can't hold on forever though and when the first big holders begin to sell, then there will be panic that will make btc drop lower then most expected. Not much is currently needed to initiate a total panic.
It is possible that btc will be ressurected after this death, but this possibility isn't probable. It's more probable that money will start flowing to cryptos that has solved the problems that pure PoW mining creates.

[Istanbul34]

i think at this point in time bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem.

almost 24 months ago people though that bitcoin would revolutionize the business of international money transfers, people started working on designing ATMs, and fiat to bitcoin exchanges popped up in many jurisdictions. a solution to an old problem.

today we have some ATMs and a healthy number of exchanges, however both of these have very high regulatory costs.  as it turns out much of that "problem" is mostly the creation of various regulatory regimes, since we no longer generally ship around tons of gold on ships, that let us say are in place to allow incumbents to make money along with providing protocols that allow for reporting to governments primarily for reasons related to tax collection, but also the enforcement of embargoes, sanctions and the never ending hunt for organized crime (terror, drugs, etc).

frankly this is not what bitcoin, as one can plainly see, excels at.

one has to go back to the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper and re-read it occasionally to pull out new nuggets of insight based on what has transpired.

While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model.
Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes.  The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for nonreversible
services.

A few things to note here:

1. "the system works well enough for most transactions" means that Satoshi thought that "most transactions" concerning online commerce are handled well by the current system. therefor it is not likely that bitcoin applies to say the purchase of books on amazon.com.  Bitpay, circle and coinbase are sadly barking up the wrong tree.

2. so what is bitcoin perhaps good for?  there answer is right there in the first paragraph: "small casual transactions" and " non-reversible payments for nonreversible services".

What are interactions that may constitute say "small casual transactions"?

1. tipping - this has been relatively successful for reddit and doge it seems
2. online gambling - we can see that the dice sites appear to do decent business
3. ?
4. ??
5.

What are "nonreversible services"?

1. the time stamping of a digital document
2. the use of processing power
3. the use of data storage
4. the escrowing of something of value
5. the execution of a contract between some parties
6. the delivery of data
7.
8.
9.

Now ask yourselves, how many bitcoin services and business do you know which fall into some of these categories?

And then you, I think, shall understand why we are not yet at $10000/btc.

When folks on here can start naming popular services in a majority of these categories, and perhaps others, then we will see not only the foundation for more wide spread adoption but also price.

Most of the investments in the current space by VC are really throwing money into a fire. But I have full confidence that in time (say 2-3 years) other groups that are more nimble and not necessarily driven by rigid business plans will begin to execute on these.  Of course that is the reason why I really like projects like Ethereum, Counterparty and Storj.

You forgot to mention NXT;

[deleted text referring to potential scams]

With NXT; The power will always belong to the few whales.

Sorry but this is the BTC price movement and discussion thread.  i was discussing impacts on longer price movements and what we need to be seeing.

BTW what is up with all the NXT and XRP people these days?  I am totally for technically legit alt coin projects, but these guys just try to shove shit down everyone's throats.

hey guys here is a CLUE.... you you attract more flies with honey then vinegar...  although i guess shit seems to work too... lol

Just passed some information and someone reacted with FUD like always.

But you are right. Please discuss the price of Bitcoin. That's really important right now  

My point was that there are projects that doesn't think about the price of the coin/asset all day long but want to create a better world.
Maybe the Bitcoin devs can be inspired by those projects.

I don't care if people here like NXT or not. Just do know that there are people out there working on many projects that will decentralize the world bit by bit thanks to NXT

I don't want to interrupt. I'm out.

[empowering]

I don't care if people here like NXT or not. Just do know that there are people out there working on many projects that will decentralize the world bit by bit thanks to NXT

Meh- don't worry, this is the BTC thread....  but people still mention Ethereum etc, it is fine.

Personally I like NXT and the community they are building.

[Elwar]

I can taste the despair right now but I prefer to buy during panic...I will hold off a little longer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jonoiv]

i think at this point in time bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem.

almost 24 months ago people though that bitcoin would revolutionize the business of international money transfers, people started working on designing ATMs, and fiat to bitcoin exchanges popped up in many jurisdictions. a solution to an old problem.

today we have some ATMs and a healthy number of exchanges, however both of these have very high regulatory costs.  as it turns out much of that "problem" is mostly the creation of various regulatory regimes, since we no longer generally ship around tons of gold on ships, that let us say are in place to allow incumbents to make money along with providing protocols that allow for reporting to governments primarily for reasons related to tax collection, but also the enforcement of embargoes, sanctions and the never ending hunt for organized crime (terror, drugs, etc).

frankly this is not what bitcoin, as one can plainly see, excels at.

one has to go back to the Satoshi Nakamoto white paper and re-read it occasionally to pull out new nuggets of insight based on what has transpired.

While the system works well enough for most transactions, it still suffers from the inherent weaknesses of the trust based model.
Completely non-reversible transactions are not really possible, since financial institutions cannot avoid mediating disputes.  The cost of mediation increases transaction costs, limiting the minimum practical transaction size and cutting off the possibility for small casual transactions, and there is a broader cost in the loss of ability to make non-reversible payments for nonreversible
services.

A few things to note here:

1. "the system works well enough for most transactions" means that Satoshi thought that "most transactions" concerning online commerce are handled well by the current system. therefor it is not likely that bitcoin applies to say the purchase of books on amazon.com.  Bitpay, circle and coinbase are sadly barking up the wrong tree.

2. so what is bitcoin perhaps good for?  there answer is right there in the first paragraph: "small casual transactions" and " non-reversible payments for nonreversible services".

What are interactions that may constitute say "small casual transactions"?

1. tipping - this has been relatively successful for reddit and doge it seems
2. online gambling - we can see that the dice sites appear to do decent business
3. ?
4. ??
5.

What are "nonreversible services"?

1. the time stamping of a digital document
2. the use of processing power
3. the use of data storage
4. the escrowing of something of value
5. the execution of a contract between some parties
6. the delivery of data
7.
8.
9.

Now ask yourselves, how many bitcoin services and business do you know which fall into some of these categories?

And then you, I think, shall understand why we are not yet at $10000/btc.

When folks on here can start naming popular services in a majority of these categories, and perhaps others, then we will see not only the foundation for more wide spread adoption but also price.

Most of the investments in the current space by VC are really throwing money into a fire. But I have full confidence that in time (say 2-3 years) other groups that are more nimble and not necessarily driven by rigid business plans will begin to execute on these.  Of course that is the reason why I really like projects like Ethereum, Counterparty and Storj.

You forgot to mention NXT;

Promising projects are IMO;

- Jinn https://nxtforum.org/news-and-announcements/(ann)-jinn/
- DORCS https://lythmmo.com/
- Nxtty https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.nxtty.main&hl=nl_NL
- SkyNet http://finhive.com/roadmap.html
- superNET http://www.supernet.org/index.php/en/
- NXTpoker https://nxtforum.org/stark-industries-(nxtdice)/business-plan/

+ Many more projects which will use NXT as their "fuel".

Check http://nxtreporting.com for the actual price and http://www.secureae.com/ if you want to invest directly with BTC.

And ofcourse NXT is not stopping with developments as well;

http://www.nxttechnologytree.com/

There is one important reason why these people have chosen NXT over Bitcoin;

Once you bought the equipment to support the network of NXT you have a fixed cost of electricity of running a node ($20/month for a decent node) and no other fees.

In PoW you need to upgrade your equipment every 6 months to be able compete in the mining race, spend time to maintain the hardware, electricity fees increase as you compete to gain a larger share of hashrate to mine the same amount of coins as before (some of the electricity fees may be offset by more energy-efficient ASICs, but I would guess there is still an increase). In short, it's a nightmare. Only few large datacenters could survive in the end and then they could all be easily coerced to make a PoW crypto centralized and regulated.

With NXT; The power will always belong to the users.

Ps; Someone set up a solar powered Rasperry Pi with the software of NXT;

I had this idea (see below),  It got 0 interest .    If all transaction fees went to the dev team im sure people would be interested.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=871428.0

[NotLambchop]

Good morning, Bitcoin sufferers.

In the event of the rains continuing unabated, Gentlemen, the earthen embankment may become breached.
Such an eventuality is certain to oust you from your current domicile.

Going down... going down now... going down.... [x2]

[jonoiv]

When I trade, I trade using the Moon / Doom Wall observer post technique.   Divide the number of doom posts by the number of moon posts and if the ratio is grater than 1.6, it's going to pump.  Vise versa for the period after a nice uptrend.  

We have had about 3 doom posts to every moon posts the last 2-3 days so I make that a ratio of 3 for a while = moon soon(ish)  

I use that indicator too, but not in quite such a refined way - I have not defined parameters yet 

Have you thought about squaring this explanatory variable? Flipping it around and dividing 1 by it? Plotting it on an Excel spreadsheet to test for statistical significance. You've been around here long enough... you might as well create a working trading model.

If I were to do something, it would be automated, no way would i be bothered to trudge through 20 pages of this thread everyday and fill out a spreadsheet.

If I were to make it I would use PHP + mySQL,  the only problem would be lambchop's posts, a human has trouble understanding what the hell he is talking about, a php script would be dumbfounded!  I can see my server turning all skynet on me.

Might be a nice bit of fun though, but my time is limited

[NotLambchop]

... the only problem would be lambchop's posts, a human has trouble understanding what the hell he is talking about, a php script would be dumbfounded!  I can see my server turning all skynet on me.
...

Solution: No need to parse my posts, simply evaluate each instance as "TO DA MOON."  They always are you kno...

[serpicodk]

Damn it, should of leveraged at $358...

I wanted to wait for 353...
Hopefully we'll see sub 360 one more time

If we don't break 375 and the dumping starts, you definitely will see 340 again by mid to end of the week.

Not so sure about 340 though, my opinion is we won't ever see sub $340 again but we'll see

Soon... you will understand how stupid you sounded.

[Phillis]

not sure where we are headed, but drop loss is quite valuable here

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Regarding BTC:

We broke the big wedge to the downside. Breaks of such proportions takes us to major moves in the direction of the breakout/breakdown. Since market decided down, down it is for now. Ignore the bulltraps. That is all.

Probably a test of the $275 bottom is to be expected in the next weeks IMHO...

[prophetx]

Just passed some information and someone reacted with FUD like always.

But you are right. Please discuss the price of Bitcoin. That's really important right now  

My point was that there are projects that doesn't think about the price of the coin/asset all day long but want to create a better world.
Maybe the Bitcoin devs can be inspired by those projects.

I don't care if people here like NXT or not. Just do know that there are people out there working on many projects that will decentralize the world bit by bit thanks to NXT

I don't want to interrupt. I'm out.

if i wanted to react with FUD, I would have said things like:

1. why did the dev implement wallets that allowed many of the people's NXT to get stolen in the first month via a brut force attack
2. why did the dev close the crowd sale early and take money from someone who then pumped NXT for the benefit of himself and a very small group

and the list goes on...  sounds like a better world for sure... for a few manipulators... just for the record i actually liked NXT as a concept before the crowd sales but the actions afterwards and association with scammers is what brings it down.  just like association with drug market places makes btc unpalatable for much of the population.

btw not sure if you read the title of this thread but it is actually about BTC price movement tracking and discussion  

so what we do on this thread is discuss BTC price movement all day long

[jonoiv]

Damn it, should of leveraged at $358...

I wanted to wait for 353...
Hopefully we'll see sub 360 one more time

If we don't break 375 and the dumping starts, you definitely will see 340 again by mid to end of the week.

Not so sure about 340 though, my opinion is we won't ever see sub $340 again but we'll see

Soon... you will understand how stupid you sounded.

I don't think so..

Personally I wouldn't risk a leverage, esp. not 20x,  but the signs are here that we are in a bull market.  Granted it an unsure / paranoid bull market at the moment, but that will change when we see another strong up-trend.  

It took 6 days to reach $450 / $470 from $350,  And it took 9 days to come back down, followed by another 20 days to settle at $350.  Just buy and hodl.

[Elwar]

so what we do on this thread is discuss BTC price movement all day long

This.

Price on Bitstamp is down $1.

[hdbuck]

Regarding BTC:

We broke the big wedge to the downside. Breaks of such proportions takes us to major moves in the direction of the breakout/breakdown. Since market decided down, down it is for now. Ignore the bulltraps. That is all.

Probably a test of the $275 bottom is to be expected in the next weeks IMHO...

[NotLambchop]

...
...

Good thing he wasn't on the Titanic, he would have stayed behind to pocket the silverware...

[prophetx]

yes XRP is actually a better solution to the problem of money transfer and interconnecting legacy systems banks than bitcoin is in its' current state.

i'm not a ripple fanboy, just a realist.

part of being a technologist is to solve practical problems with practical solutions.  the bitcoin developers have know for a while now that there are issues with bitcoin's scalability - primarily ability to scale in the time and # of transactions dimensions.

the answers that some propose like those tree chains, side chains, etc while they may indeed sound good on paper are unavailable and untested in the real world, whereas Ripple has been tested for 2 years now in the real world.  also conceptually they look like hacks to the system that try to patch the ugly truth that the bitcoin system is too rigid to adjust to the needs of the real world.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

yes XRP is actually a better solution to the problem of money transfer and interconnecting legacy systems banks than bitcoin is in its' current state.

i'm not a ripple fanboy, just a realist.

part of being a technologist is to solve practical problems with practical solutions.  the bitcoin developers have know for a while now that there are issues with bitcoin's scalability - primarily ability to scale in the time and # of transactions dimensions.

the answers that some propose like those tree chains, side chains, etc while they may indeed sound good on paper are unavailable and untested in the real world, whereas Ripple has been tested for 2 years now in the real world.  also conceptually they look like hacks to the system that try to patch the ugly truth that the bitcoin system is too rigid to adjust to the needs of the real world.

Agree 100%