Butterfly Labs Forced "On Hold For Refund" for all my Single SC orders

[baloo_kiev]

I'm sure one day BFL will ship and I'll look at all you with your BFL rigs and I'll feel a pang of regret.

It may also happen that you will look with pity at them, as their rigs will mine satoshis at that difficulty  

[wrenchmonkey]

I was speaking hypothetically in the realm of "if BFL was able to ship right now in volume"

This would rely on the assumption of two things: that they could fill their existing orders of $125/$275 quickly, and that every new order placed could be priced at roughly 14-15x the current price - and people would pay it (following that people paid that much per mh/s on the USB miners)

It's very simple to logically believe that IF BFL could ship right now, they would, because they would have a monopoly on ASIC sales given their hash rates... and they could charge a LOT more for each unit. 

The money they could make in BTC a day would be nothing compared to the $ they could be bringing in and then just converting to BTC

Sure, assuming they could price their product 15x and ship in bulk right now, then they would be better off shipping product. However, I don't believe they can do either.

The ASICMiner product is not really competitive. Even so, it and the Avalon chip sails have already sucked up a lot of capital that would have otherwise gone to BFL. Also, both products are being sold at inflated prices. If BFL actually enters the market, Avalon and ASICMiner could revise their prices down to compete.

But they're not capable of or willing to ship in quantity either. A couple hundred units from Avalon? So what? They aren't capable or or interested in shipping in quantity.

1 Avalon unit is 66GH/s, more than 10x the performance of 1 BFL Jalapeno (the only BFL unit that has left their facility). Each Avalon unit has 3x88 chips in it (IIRC) so that is (300 batch 1 units + 300 batch 2 units ) x (3 x 88) = 158,400 chips. That is volume. Also, they have sold another 400,000+ chips to the DIY and group buy crowd. That is shipping ASICs in volume. BFL by contrast has moved maybe 3 dozen ASIC chips.

And neither is ASIC Miner. They've said several times that the only reason they're actually selling at all, is that they can't bring more equipment online until there's mor hashing power out there, to prevent 51% of network share. So they're only selling in the mean time. Once BFL comes online, full-force, Avalon is toast, because they can't produce at speed or quantity, and ASIC Miner are gonners too, because they don't even want to be in the retail game in the first place.

BFL miners compete with both ASICMiner retail and ASICMiner mining operation. So the ROI on BFL units does not distinguish between ASICMiner chips.

If BFL starts shipping in quantity, difficulty is going to SKYROCKET, and that will create even MORE demand for their product. Anybody who spends more than a few cursory seconds on this realizes that there's WAY MORE money in selling the 'shovels' than there is in mining.

Guaranteed, there's nobody who wants BFL up and producing (and shipping) at maximum capacity more than BFL does.

The facts do not bear out your statement. $2700 per day per 500GH/s for mining in the short term vs $5000 to $10000 profit per 500GH/s selling. It makes more sense to mine first, then ship. Only after the difficulty rises or the price of USD/BTC falls will the tide shift. Don't forget, BFL can mine and ship, they do not have to choose one or the other.

Per chip "quantity" isn't relevant to tapping the market, because the majority of the market doesn't need or want an $8000 mining machine that consumes 5 times as much power and costs 2-4 times as much to purchase. ROI on BFL units does not distringuish between ASICMiner chips? What does that even mean? ASICMINER will NOT be selling units, as soon as they've got some competition. Meaning the ONLY "ROI" that will be factored will be the buyers of BFL (and a few Avalon) units.

What do you mean it makes more sense to mine first and then ship? Mine with how much, for how long? If they're mining, where is the hashing power hiding out? Where's your evidence that they are (or even intend to) mine with their customers' products before shipping them?  

[k9quaint]

I was speaking hypothetically in the realm of "if BFL was able to ship right now in volume"

This would rely on the assumption of two things: that they could fill their existing orders of $125/$275 quickly, and that every new order placed could be priced at roughly 14-15x the current price - and people would pay it (following that people paid that much per mh/s on the USB miners)

It's very simple to logically believe that IF BFL could ship right now, they would, because they would have a monopoly on ASIC sales given their hash rates... and they could charge a LOT more for each unit. 

The money they could make in BTC a day would be nothing compared to the $ they could be bringing in and then just converting to BTC

Sure, assuming they could price their product 15x and ship in bulk right now, then they would be better off shipping product. However, I don't believe they can do either.

The ASICMiner product is not really competitive. Even so, it and the Avalon chip sails have already sucked up a lot of capital that would have otherwise gone to BFL. Also, both products are being sold at inflated prices. If BFL actually enters the market, Avalon and ASICMiner could revise their prices down to compete.

But they're not capable of or willing to ship in quantity either. A couple hundred units from Avalon? So what? They aren't capable or or interested in shipping in quantity.

1 Avalon unit is 66GH/s, more than 10x the performance of 1 BFL Jalapeno (the only BFL unit that has left their facility). Each Avalon unit has 3x88 chips in it (IIRC) so that is (300 batch 1 units + 300 batch 2 units ) x (3 x 88) = 158,400 chips. That is volume. Also, they have sold another 400,000+ chips to the DIY and group buy crowd. That is shipping ASICs in volume. BFL by contrast has moved maybe 3 dozen ASIC chips.

And neither is ASIC Miner. They've said several times that the only reason they're actually selling at all, is that they can't bring more equipment online until there's mor hashing power out there, to prevent 51% of network share. So they're only selling in the mean time. Once BFL comes online, full-force, Avalon is toast, because they can't produce at speed or quantity, and ASIC Miner are gonners too, because they don't even want to be in the retail game in the first place.

BFL miners compete with both ASICMiner retail and ASICMiner mining operation. So the ROI on BFL units does not distinguish between ASICMiner chips.

If BFL starts shipping in quantity, difficulty is going to SKYROCKET, and that will create even MORE demand for their product. Anybody who spends more than a few cursory seconds on this realizes that there's WAY MORE money in selling the 'shovels' than there is in mining.

Guaranteed, there's nobody who wants BFL up and producing (and shipping) at maximum capacity more than BFL does.

The facts do not bear out your statement. $2700 per day per 500GH/s for mining in the short term vs $5000 to $10000 profit per 500GH/s selling. It makes more sense to mine first, then ship. Only after the difficulty rises or the price of USD/BTC falls will the tide shift. Don't forget, BFL can mine and ship, they do not have to choose one or the other.

Per chip "quantity" isn't relevant to tapping the market, because the majority of the market doesn't need or want an $8000 mining machine that consumes 5 times as much power and costs 2-4 times as much to purchase.

They don't use 5 time as much power. They use 1.5-2x as much. (13 x 50w ars technica @ 5GH/s vs 600W) https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon#Power.
The first batch was $1500 per 66GH/s and they made money off it. The second batch is roughly $8000 but that was an anomalous result because Avalon explicitly said they were building into the cost of the unit the cost of upgrading their production line. If BFL ships, they could conceivably lower their cost back to $1500 and still make money and have a better price point than BFL. Presuming of course they don't have to buy a new factory every time they do a new run.

ROI on BFL units does not distringuish between ASICMiner chips? What does that even mean? ASICMINER will NOT be selling units, as soon as they've got some competition. Meaning the ONLY "ROI" that will be factored will be the buyers of BFL (and a few Avalon) units.

Since the ASICMiner mining operation holds roughly 25% of the total bitcoin network hashrate, any buyer of BFL is competing with them. They have the capacity to expand this more but they don't want to hold too large of a percentage of the overall network because it could destabilize bitcoin itself. Every addition to the network by someone else allows ASICMiner to bring more capacity online. The higher the network hashrate, the lower the ROI is on a BFL unit. Therefore it does not matter whether an ASICMiner chip is running in the ASICMiner facility or in someone's home because they bought it retail. In either case each ASICMiner chip lowers the overall ROI of BFL units.

What do you mean it makes more sense to mine first and then ship? Mine with how much, for how long? If they're mining, where is the hashing power hiding out? Where's your evidence that they are (or even intend to) mine with their customers' products before shipping them?  

First they mine for some period of time (1 day or 1 week or 1 month), then they clean off the unit with compressed air, box it up, and ship it. As I have said numerous times, BFL does not have the capacity at the moment (perhaps ever) to be visible in the network hash rate. They could easily add 500GH/s and nobody would notice if they used multiple pools.

 My assertion is that if they had 200ish chips (~500GH/s) it would make far more sense to mine with it than to ship out the units. They cannot clear their order book with 100 Jalapenos (or get anywhere close to it). They could easily disguise the addition of 500GH/s (0.5% of the total network). If they did that for a month it would earn $80K at current prices. That would be a powerful temptation to a company that is in a cash crunch.

I have no evidence that BFL is actually mining, I am only asserting that it would make economic sense for them to do so.
In fact, I doubt they have anywhere near 100 units operational at this time (also conjecture on my part).

[ThatDGuy]

My assertion is that if they had 200ish chips (~500GH/s) it would make far more sense to mine with it than to ship out the units. They cannot clear their order book with 100 Jalapenos (or get anywhere close to it). They could easily disguise the addition of 500GH/s (0.5% of the total network). If they did that for a month it would earn $80K at current prices. That would be a powerful temptation to a company that is in a cash crunch.

Hold up... if BFL is "a company that is in a cash crunch"

...wouldn't it be illogical to be forcing refunds on unhappy customers - the point of this thread?

[centove]

I thought at 10 pages this was silly, but now 17?? Keep going folks, this will surely resolve the issues..

Yes you are free to say/think what you want, however there will be consequences of any actions/thoughts you might have and or express.

Now I'm gonna go make some popcorn and continue watching the show...

[PuertoLibre]

They don't use 5 time as much power. They use 1.5-2x as much. (13 x 50w ars technica @ 5GH/s vs 600W) https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Avalon#Power.
The first batch was $1500 per 66GH/s and they made money off it. The second batch is roughly $8000 but that was an anomalous result because Avalon explicitly said they were building into the cost of the unit the cost of upgrading their production line. If BFL ships, they could conceivably lower their cost back to $1500 and still make money and have a better price point than BFL. Presuming of course they don't have to buy a new factory every time they do a new run.

Correction:

Avalon:
Batch 1 was 1299$ @ 66Gh/s
Batch 2 was 1500$ @ 67Gh/s
Batch 3 was 75BTC @ 45GH/s through 80~90Gh/s

BFL:
Single SC up until April 1st was 1299$ (plus a crazy shipping cost) @ 60Gh/s Up from 40Gh/s.
Single SC before April 1st is now 2495$ (plus a crazy shipping cost) @ 50Gh/s down from 60Gh/s. <--- notice the difference and twice the price.

[PuertoLibre]

My assertion is that if they had 200ish chips (~500GH/s) it would make far more sense to mine with it than to ship out the units. They cannot clear their order book with 100 Jalapenos (or get anywhere close to it). They could easily disguise the addition of 500GH/s (0.5% of the total network). If they did that for a month it would earn $80K at current prices. That would be a powerful temptation to a company that is in a cash crunch.

Hold up... if BFL is "a company that is in a cash crunch"

...wouldn't it be illogical to be forcing refunds on unhappy customers - the point of this thread?

No, it is not illogical.

You would want to offload all the older orders and potential liability from June 2012 through to April 1st 2013. (In my opinion and "speculative" thoughts)

You have a lot of customer(s) who can sue you for non-delivery (if they are old enough). Therefore refunds are a very good thing (imo).

I believe this is what Inabas true goals are by letting loose on the forums.

--------------------------------

The Advertising campaign simply refreshes revenue/cash flow (at a higher premium) and replaces the older (liability prone 2012 and early 2013) customers. As they get frustrated or quit waiting.

Therefore it is perfectly logical to abuse your older customer base.

As long as no one contacts Google about false advertising....the game will go on.
If that happens....PANIC!

--------------------------------

In this speculative rendering, money is the objective and limiting or reducing liability. Not customer service or customer relationships.

[Xian01]

I thought at 10 pages this was silly, but now 17?? Keep going folks, this will surely resolve the issues..

There is nothing further to resolve at this point, other than continuing to shine a bright light on BFL's business practices.

I'll be joining you in the consumption of popcorn.

[k9quaint]

My assertion is that if they had 200ish chips (~500GH/s) it would make far more sense to mine with it than to ship out the units. They cannot clear their order book with 100 Jalapenos (or get anywhere close to it). They could easily disguise the addition of 500GH/s (0.5% of the total network). If they did that for a month it would earn $80K at current prices. That would be a powerful temptation to a company that is in a cash crunch.

Hold up... if BFL is "a company that is in a cash crunch"

...wouldn't it be illogical to be forcing refunds on unhappy customers - the point of this thread?

BFL said they have all of their customer's pre-order funds segregated from their operational cash flow. They have asserted that anyone and everyone who wants one can get a refund. It is very possible, even likely, given all of their delays that they are running low on cash for operations and the raw materials for production.

@puertolibre: Thanks for the corrections on the Avalon Batch pricing. I am only figuring specs from BFL units that have left their labs. Who knows what the units on their drawing boards will actually be capable of (if anything).

[nottm28]

I thought at 10 pages this was silly, but now 17?? Keep going folks, this will surely resolve the issues..

There is nothing further to resolve at this point, other than continuing to shine a bright light on BFL's business practices.

I'll be joining you in the consumption of popcorn.

1. I have a 2012 BFL order - sit on it -wait for it - you know it's coming - be one of the first to cash in on the coins.
2. I have a 2012 BFL order - sell it for loads more than I paid for it.
3. I have a 2012 BFL order - slag off the people I am buying from and get a refund

pick a number

[centove]

I thought at 10 pages this was silly, but now 17?? Keep going folks, this will surely resolve the issues..

There is nothing further to resolve at this point, other than continuing to shine a bright light on BFL's business practices.

I'll be joining you in the consumption of popcorn.

1. I have a 2012 BFL order - sit on it -wait for it - you know it's coming - be one of the first to cash in on the coins.
2. I have a 2012 BFL order - sell it for loads more than I paid for it.
3. I have a 2012 BFL order - slag off the people I am buying from and get a refund

pick a number

Oo Ooo Ooo #3 right???

Do I get a cookie?

[Xian01]

1. I have a 2012 BFL order - sit on it -wait for it - you know it's coming - be one of the first to cash in on the coins.

There's a big difference between knowing something is coming, and knowing when something is coming.

I know I am going to die at some point. I don't want to know when.

When we pre-order a product, and have waited for 11 months, it's not unreasonable to have an estimation of when it might be coming. "Next week" or "Next month" ad-nauseam grates on ones nerves after a while when you see the other horses you didn't bet on winning the race.
 
Oh, and the jockey of the horse you bet on is throwing shit in your face while he's losing the race.

[nottm28]

Nah, I win either way.

No, you don't win either way because you are not in the BFL queue - (I'll buy BFL through my 'friends' yeah right) - they wouldn't accept your order and you know it - your motives are clear - you're happy to be a minority asic miner - you can't deny that.

[Xian01]

they wouldn't accept your order and you know it

There are any number of ways to purchase BFL products via family, trusted friends, or other proxies. I'm not sure you thought that through to it's logical conclusions.

[wrenchmonkey]

Oh, and the jockey of the horse you bet on is throwing shit in your face while he's losing the race.

No, the Jockey is just flipping off the booing crowd. 

[nottm28]

they wouldn't accept your order and you know it

There are any number of ways to purchase BFL products via family, trusted friends, or other proxies. I'm not sure you thought that through to it's logical conclusions.

But I'd have thought you've had enough of BFL by now - so you are planning to get your family/friends to pick up where you left off? Good plan...

[PuertoLibre]

Nah, I win either way.

No, you don't win either way because you are not in the BFL queue - (I'll buy BFL through my 'friends' yeah right) -

Who said anything about "my friends"?

You folks really should get a handle on your own minds. I said "third party".

they wouldn't accept your order and you know it - your motives are clear - you're happy to be a minority asic miner - you can't deny that.

?

Honestly (in all seriousness) you puzzle me when you say things like this. I did answer your question honestly.

As for Minority ASIC Minor....that just made my eyebrows go all haywire....

What do you mean by "Minority"? Avalon Batch 1 customer are the vast majority (ASIC Miners) as of today. I am probably on 1 of 70 people who actually have one. Some ordered more than 1 unit.

As Batch 2 comes out from Avalon the exclusivity will be less and less. That is okay with me. I have multiple plans with each scenario.

-----------------

If you are going to say something, at least cross check with your own rational mind, that it actually makes sense to write it down.

[nottm28]

I thought at 10 pages this was silly, but now 17?? Keep going folks, this will surely resolve the issues..

There is nothing further to resolve at this point, other than continuing to shine a bright light on BFL's business practices.

I'll be joining you in the consumption of popcorn.

1. I have a 2012 BFL order - sit on it -wait for it - you know it's coming - be one of the first to cash in on the coins.
2. I have a 2012 BFL order - sell it for loads more than I paid for it.
3. I have a 2012 BFL order - slag off the people I am buying from and get a refund

pick a number

Oo Ooo Ooo #3 right???

Do I get a cookie?

Sorry no cookie

[PuertoLibre]

they wouldn't accept your order and you know it

There are any number of ways to purchase BFL products via family, trusted friends, or other proxies. I'm not sure you thought that through to it's logical conclusions.

Sadly Nottm28 is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

[Xian01]

But I'd have thought you've had enough of BFL by now

Please don't assume. I'm merely poking a hole in your logic. Believe me. I'm not ever ordering another product from BFL. I can't. Won't even via proxy on principle.

Now, if BFL wants to make this right and turn me into a believer, well, shit... I should just wake up from that dream, huh ?