ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[SOSLOVE868]

AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.

Same mistake here ,again and over again.   You assumption is based on AM will selling same Blade all the time, and based on this assumption you assume the share price of AM will decrease.

Let's me explain clear to you , KNC will probably ships its product by September and unknow how many they could produce by that day. may be 1 or 2 just like BFL.  ,before that time did you agree that AM still has no comparative competitor in the market?  other things ,AM is focus on mining ,the majority of dividend is coming from mining. Since last week, the dividend come from hardware selling is already drooped. why its share price goes up? the reason is AM still the best assets produce positive value, so investors has no other opportunity, as long as there are no other assets could produce a annul yield above 20% without loss its principle.
We should be clearly understand AM is not rely on Hardware sales as well as mining.
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly, So far , I didn't see any clue shows AM will loss its mining share, and considering of the low cost of produce device to mining and low cost of electricity in China, this ensure its potential ability to catch up with the increasing of mining difficulty.
Other wrong point in your assumption is , your use old blade spec to compare with something come out six month later, as AM is currently being R&D in its new blade and its wafer. you argument is trying to see that AM has not capable to provides similar products as KNC.
This assumption is fully non-sense, I think it will be better if you wait util FC release the spec of new blade then posted a comparison at that time will be more realistic.

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[elefter]

AM have a limited number of devices for sale

They do??? If their production capabilities are friedcat and his friends puting those thing together by hand then i guess you are right

[Mabsark]

I really do not like this comparison , because it ignored the basic truth which use AM today's product to compare with some 6 months later products.

I had post before, AM is company manufacture in China, you should understand that the cost of producing electronic products is much much lower than anywhere else in the world also that the possibility to speed put those products into mass production.
As FriedCat announced it will delivery better products in Oct this year and it will be much better than anything else.
You are trying to believe a new entry with sample products has more capability than current leader?
Anyone has the knowledge in integrated circuit manufacturing will know that the difference between 110NM standards and 28NM standards isn't technology difference, it different in the production equipment which involved to produce it.
You are trying to see that Chinese integrated circuit manufacturing are not capable to produce chips at 28NM standard?
I think this totally nonsense, that IPOD /IPHONE are manufactured in the same province where AM operated.

Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.





[/quote]

Of course, I know what you mean , you trying to say that AM would not change its price and its products standards?
The old blade is no more selling on the market, the only thing will make you assumption useful , is waiting util the new blade come out.
since before new blade come out , we do not know what will the spec be. It may be better than KNC ? if it does better than KNC , then the share price of AM will go up again at that time.
You can't post assumption like this if you did not know what exactly spec about the new blade.
It will caused missing lead investors, and seems not fair to AM.
[/quote]

No, that's the opposite of what I'm saying! AM will HAVE to change its pricing and products to be competitive otherwise it wouldn't sell any hardware at all.

It doesn't matter whether the new hardware is better than KnC or anyone else for that matter. All that matters is that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD. AM will have to sell its devices at a price which is competitive. If KnC is readily available that's 50 Mh/s for 1 USD. If BFL is readily available but KnC is not, then that'll be about 18 Mh/s per USD. Due to competition being available and AM having a limited supply of devices, profit from selling hardware can only go down.

[SOSLOVE868]

Of course, I know what you mean , you trying to say that AM would not change its price and its products standards?
The old blade is no more selling on the market, the only thing will make you assumption useful , is waiting util the new blade come out.
since before new blade come out , we do not know what will the spec be. It may be better than KNC ? if it does better than KNC , then the share price of AM will go up again at that time.
You can't post assumption like this if you did not know what exactly spec about the new blade.
It will caused missing lead investors, and seems not fair to AM.
[/quote]

No, that's the opposite of what I'm saying! AM will HAVE to change its pricing and products to be competitive otherwise it wouldn't sell any hardware at all.

It doesn't matter whether the new hardware is better than KnC or anyone else for that matter. All that matters is that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD. AM will have to sell its devices at a price which is competitive. If KnC is readily available that's 50 Mh/s for 1 USD. If BFL is readily available but KnC is not, then that'll be about 18 Mh/s per USD. Due to competition being available and AM having a limited supply of devices, profit from selling hardware can only go down.

Of course , sell hardware is one off deal ,you can't repeat it again and again with same product, if your competitor has improve their product's quality, but majority of AM's dividend is come from its mining process.  Drooped of hardware selling actually does not has huge impact on its share price.(It does ,but not as important as the percentage of whole network's hashrate)
My point here is you posted this assertion too earlier, because you still do not know does KNC has the ability to delivery the products as they promised, there are possibility they could be next BFL.

We can't tell whether KNC is next AM or BFL util September, We can't tell whether AM will invented worse or better product than KNC ,util FC posted out the new spec of the Blade.

Before that time, every assumption that taken absolute idealize would be same pointless.

[blackreplica]

You're missing the part where I think they will have better hardware, and while it will have to be priced better, it will also be still competitive. The selling of older hardware is just icing on the cake.

ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.

Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.

I'm not missing that part at all. So what if they have new hardware? Please explain what effect you think such new hardware will have. The only effect I see it having is to reduce the power consumption, causing a slight increase in dividends due to less income being spent on power. That slight increase will not be enough to offset the decrease from hardware sales or network share.

What I find curious is that you assume AM's plans for next gen technology simply involves a die shrink. Yet with the same state of mind you accept a new company with no track record will take huge leaps in technological innovation while AM simply....rolls over and dies

[Mabsark]

AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.

Same mistake here ,again and over again.   You assumption is based on AM will selling same Blade all the time, and based on this assumption you assume the share price of AM will decrease.

NO! It makes no difference what hardware AM have for sale in the future. If it offers poor value compared to the competition, people will buy from the competition. It it does offer equal or better value than the competition, then income from hardware sales MUST decrease due to AM having a limited quantity for sale.

Let's me explain clear to you , KNC will probably ship its product by September  ,before that time did you agree that AM still has no comparative competitor in the market?  other things ,AM is focus on mining ,the majority of dividend is coming from mining. Since last week, the dividend come from hardware selling is already drooped. why its share price goes up? the reason is AM still the best assets produce positive value, so investors has no other opportunity, as long as there are no other assets could produce a annul yield above 20% without loss its principle.

Until people can buy miners off the shelf (order gets shipped within a couple of days of being placed), AM will have no competition. Why has the share price gone up? Clearly because people are stupid.

We should be clearly understand AM is not rely on Hardware sales as well as mining.
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly,

AM will not be able to to maintain it's stated share of the hash rate either. It can do so now only because of the lack of competition. The following companies already have or are due to have ASICs on the market.

ASICMINER
Avalon
BFL
KnC
BitFury
Bitgarden
AMC

All of those companies could easily match each others hash rate once they have a working ASIC and we're bound to see a few more in the future. I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

[velacreations]

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

[Mabsark]

You're missing the part where I think they will have better hardware, and while it will have to be priced better, it will also be still competitive. The selling of older hardware is just icing on the cake.

ASICMINER has a history of shipping and no false promises.

Also, I renew my scepticism of KNC having access to 28nm fabs.

I'm not missing that part at all. So what if they have new hardware? Please explain what effect you think such new hardware will have. The only effect I see it having is to reduce the power consumption, causing a slight increase in dividends due to less income being spent on power. That slight increase will not be enough to offset the decrease from hardware sales or network share.

What I find curious is that you assume AM's plans for next gen technology simply involves a die shrink. Yet with the same state of mind you accept a new company with no track record will take huge leaps in technological innovation while AM simply....rolls over and dies

What difference would it make if it's more than a die shrink? I'm not claiming they have poor performance or efficiency, I'm claiming they currently offer terrible value based on 2 BTC for a USB miner and 50 BTC for a blade. I'm claiming that their new devices will not be able to have such huge profit margins due to the availability of competition and that will obviously cause a decrease in income from hardware sales.

[velacreations]

Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.

you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales.    Will this eventually happen ?  probably.  When  will this eventually happen? no one knows.  To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months.  But nothing has arrived.  So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?

And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense.  Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote.  That doesn't make it any more viable, though.

[velacreations]

I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

funny, that's exactly what Friedcat promised...

[Mabsark]

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

Yeah, clearly for the rest of time, AICMINER will be the only company able to produce ASICs.  

[Mabsark]

Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.

you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales.    Will this eventually happen ?  probably.  When  will this eventually happen? no one knows.

AM's sales? What sales? They had 10,000 USB miners to sell. That's all. Any other hardware they sell is second hand hardware they no longer want. As far as I know they've sold 150 blades and about 5000 USBs, which amounts to a couple of Th/s in total.

Will other companies eventually ship ASIC miners? They already are. In fact, BFL are now shipping 500 Gh/s Minirigs. Once they ship 10 of them, they will have shipped more hardware than AM.

To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months. But nothing has arrived.  So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?

Plenty of hardware from other companies has been shipped, so I've no idea why you are such statements which are quite obviously false. The competition is arriving as we speak.

And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense.  Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote.  That doesn't make it any more viable, though.

Since when are BFL and Avalon vapourware? Perhaps you should tell all the people currently receiving their Avalon and BFL miners that they're simply delusional and that those products don't exist.

[SOSLOVE868]

AM have a limited number of devices for sale. Previously they could charge 50 BTC per device. Soon they will only be able to charge 2 BTC per device. In order for profits to remain the same, AM would have to sell 25x more devices at the lower price. It can't do that though because those extra devices are needed for its mining operation. The obvious conclusion (and it is blatantly obvious if you just open your eyes and look at the situation objectively) is that income from selling hardware decreases.

Same mistake here ,again and over again.   You assumption is based on AM will selling same Blade all the time, and based on this assumption you assume the share price of AM will decrease.

NO! It makes no difference what hardware AM have for sale in the future. If it offers poor value compared to the competition, people will buy from the competition. It it does offer equal or better value than the competition, then income from hardware sales MUST decrease due to AM having a limited quantity for sale.

Let's me explain clear to you , KNC will probably ship its product by September  ,before that time did you agree that AM still has no comparative competitor in the market?  other things ,AM is focus on mining ,the majority of dividend is coming from mining. Since last week, the dividend come from hardware selling is already drooped. why its share price goes up? the reason is AM still the best assets produce positive value, so investors has no other opportunity, as long as there are no other assets could produce a annul yield above 20% without loss its principle.

Until people can buy miners off the shelf (order gets shipped within a couple of days of being placed), AM will have no competition. Why has the share price gone up? Clearly because people are stupid.

We should be clearly understand AM is not rely on Hardware sales as well as mining.
The correct assumption should be if AM loss its capability to remains its share in mining , then I agreed its price will be dump so quickly,

AM will not be able to to maintain it's stated share of the hash rate either. It can do so now only because of the lack of competition. The following companies already have or are due to have ASICs on the market.

ASICMINER
Avalon
BFL
KnC
BitFury
Bitgarden
AMC

All of those companies could easily match each others hash rate once they have a working ASIC and we're bound to see a few more in the future. I believe we'll see AM settle at around 10-15% of the network share.

People buying miners only when mining is profitable, if miners are so essay to get ,that mean it will be very low profit too do so.
Those companies you mentioned will absolutely has impact on total hash rate, but not affection on percentage of AM's hashrate of whole net work.
The reason is simple, the race of deploying new miners is depend on production cost.
let's see if AM could deploying one miners that cost less 1 USD and a operating cost that less 1 USD than others
This mean they will do their best to deploying more miners, Consider that Bitfuntain has lot of BTC to ensure them to doing this at any time.
This mean the more units being deployed by AM is more benefit received by AM, and Its competitors will soon realize that.
Too determine who will win this race, is based on products spec and cost associating to oeprating this products.

The share price is determine by 2 things, capability of generate profit and other opportunity.
The reason why AM's share price at 3BTC , some part is because its 40% annual yield and other part is Shareholder does not has other opportunity better this .

[velacreations]

I'm not claiming they have poor performance or efficiency, I'm claiming they currently offer terrible value based on 2 BTC for a USB miner and 50 BTC for a blade.

I'll give you that point, their current prices are very high, because they are able to do so.  You are right on that.

I'm claiming that their new devices will not be able to have such huge profit margins due to the availability of competition and that will obviously cause a decrease in income from hardware sales.

yes, it will cause a decrease when compteition arrives, but as AM develops and produces devices, their cost of production should decrease, as well.  Think of it this way, as soon as a real competitor shows, AM will have produced 300+ TH of product.  With that sort of production, they have the opportunity to tweak and optimize production to reduce cost.

So, it is conceivable that their profit remains pretty much the same, even with significant competition, mostly because they have a 6+month head start.

[velacreations]

Perhaps you should have paid attention to the part where I said:

The only reason why AM is able to charge such outrageous prices is because they've had no competition. By the end of the year, there will be plenty of competition.

I heard the same thing in April, then May, then June, and now July, and now by the end of the year.  When will this competition arrive, again?

Yeah, clearly for the rest of time, AICMINER will be the only company able to produce ASICs.  

well, the competition have been promising production for quite some time, and each one has failed to deliver.  Why should we assume they will eventually succeed.  Isn't the likely case that they will continue to fail?

[bitfair]

Why has the share price gone up? Clearly because people are stupid.

Undeniable facts:
1) There's certainly no shortage of dribbling fools amongst AM investors.
2) Competition is coming, and will give AM a run for its money - no doubt!

But I am curious: how do you go from "competition is arriving" to "share is overpriced"?

Most investors are not complete idiots (well, at least some!), and have taken that into account - and in my opinion, the share price currently reflects that. So, could you show how you calculate a fair share price based on your assumptions?

[SOSLOVE868]

Another person, not paying attention. I never said anything like what you're claiming. I pointed out that by the end of the year there will be a lot more competition and showed how that will compare to AMs current hardware. The point of that was to show that AM will no longer be able to sell 2 Mh/s for 1 USD once that competition is available because the competition will be offering 50 Mh/s for the same price. Nobody in their right mind would buy AM hardware under such circumstances.

you are making assumptions that competitors will actually arrive with hardware and numbers to be able to make a dent in AM's sales.    Will this eventually happen ?  probably.  When  will this eventually happen? no one knows.

AM's sales? What sales? They had 10,000 USB miners to sell. That's all. Any other hardware they sell is second hand hardware they no longer want. As far as I know they've sold 150 blades and about 5000 USBs, which amounts to a couple of Th/s in total.

Will other companies eventually ship ASIC miners? They already are. In fact, BFL are now shipping 500 Gh/s Minirigs. Once they ship 10 of them, they will have shipped more hardware than AM.

To date, we've heard competitors announcing the release of their hardware every few weeks for almost 6 months. But nothing has arrived.  So, what makes you think that they will eventually be able to get it done?

Plenty of hardware from other companies has been shipped, so I've no idea why you are such statements which are quite obviously false. The competition is arriving as we speak.

And really, comparing vaporware with real hardware you can buy right now is complete nonsense.  Vaporware is cheap to produce, cheap to sell, and cheap to promote.  That doesn't make it any more viable, though.

Since when are BFL and Avalon vapourware? Perhaps you should tell all the people currently receiving their Avalon and BFL miners that they're simply delusional and that those products don't exist.

Again , shipped few units does not mean they are able to do mass production of its products.

I would argue all you assumption is too idealize about competitors... and too doubt with current market leader.

What I want to say is, if those companies are not trading in either BTCT and Bitfunder or other online exchange.

They were have low affect on share price of AM, Because We can't buy them and sharing their profit...

Last things, is if any things like you stated, then it will be tragedy for all of us invested in btc stock market.

Because private business are destroying the market of those public trade companies ,as well as AM and other mining entities.

[Franktank]

EVERYONE is pussyfooting with their "safe, conservative" estimations. I say that ASICMiner shares are worth 52.5/share, can't beat that market cap 

[bitfair]

EVERYONE is pussyfooting with their "safe, conservative" estimations. I say that ASICMiner shares are worth 52.5/share, can't beat that market cap  

Sold!

Edit: Escrow of your choice, I will even tip handsomely!

[SOSLOVE868]

So, it is conceivable that their profit remains pretty much the same, even with significant competition, mostly because they have a 6+month head start.

+1, This what I want to convinced, eventually this race will become the race of production cost and operating cost!
And assume that AM has 6 months experience and also more reserved fund, this give them more possibility to win the race~~
How many BTC that totally accumulated in their account??  should be a huge amount..
All those reserved BTC will give AM extra power to win this race when they need.. as will as the reputation of FriedCat, I think this name can essay financing lot of BTC to invest in his new project than any other new competitor over BITCOIN community.