ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[twentyseventy]

Really guys. I LOVE people on btc-tc, they always dump right to my bid. I'm not a huge investor, but I'm really thankful.  

BTC-TC really is fun to watch on Wednesdays.... everybody freak out! 

[1714680889]

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[1714680889]

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[neilol]

I wish i had more BTC to buy shares

[ft73]

I wish i had more BTC to buy shares

Me too.

[dragony]

After this healthy correction, 5.4 will be the new staying price:)

[tomywomy]

The price will be below 4 again before you know it, but will hover around that for some time. Anything below 3.5 is a no-brainer buying opportunity.

The reality is that the mining revenue is consistent, but the hardware sales are not, and people who think there will be strong hardware sales 52 weeks a year are imagining things.  Asicminer hardware demand comes in big blips - it sells like hotcakes the minute it is announced for sale and then typically sells out.  .02BTC is what you should realistically expect as an average dividend - .015 from mining and .005 from hardware.  

Also, with the price of bitcoin declining vs the USD, new money coming in for mining hardware will be lower for two reasons.  First, mining a bitcoin will not be worth as much in USD. And, second, a bitcoin will cost less.  This means the equillibrium price for converting USD to mining hardware is lower than it was and less USD will be converted into demand for mining equipment.

In my view, this is great news for the long term and bad news for the short term for Asicminer shareholder return.  If you bought shares yesterday, you're screwed for a while. But if you didn't sell yesterday, don't worry - you will continue to receive a steady stream of dividends for years to come that will more than offset the short term price decline.

[dragony]

The price will be below 4 again before you know it, but will hover around that for some time. Anything below 3.5 is a no-brainer buying opportunity.

The reality is that the mining revenue is consistent, but the hardware sales are not, and people who think there will be strong hardware sales 52 weeks a year are imagining things.  Asicminer hardware demand comes in big blips - it sells like hotcakes the minute it is announced for sale and then typically sells out.  .02BTC is what you should realistically expect as an average dividend - .015 from mining and .005 from hardware.  

Also, with the price of bitcoin declining vs the USD, new money coming in for mining hardware will be lower for two reasons.  First, mining a bitcoin will not be worth as much in USD. And, second, a bitcoin will cost less.  This means the equillibrium price for converting USD to mining hardware is lower than it was and less USD will be converted into demand for mining equipment.

In my view, this is great news for the long term and bad news for the short term for Asicminer shareholder return.  If you bought shares yesterday, you're screwed for a while. But if you didn't sell yesterday, don't worry - you will continue to receive a steady stream of dividends for years to come that will more than offset the short term price decline.

First of all falling Bitcoin is securing ASICMINER. Why?

1. You have more and more reasonable price for Bitcoin which leads to thinking AM is less risky
2. Bitcoin users use AM as hedge so if btc falls, you can sell them or buy AM, get dividents and also hope for bigger price
3. More real value of btc (I see it around $40-70) means less space for AM competition which will have harder start

[TsuyokuNaritai]

So... when's the next Friedcat update likely, and how high will it drive the price this time?

[velacreations]

The price will be below 4 again before you know it, but will hover around that for some time. Anything below 3.5 is a no-brainer buying opportunity.

The reality is that the mining revenue is consistent, but the hardware sales are not, and people who think there will be strong hardware sales 52 weeks a year are imagining things.  Asicminer hardware demand comes in big blips - it sells like hotcakes the minute it is announced for sale and then typically sells out.  .02BTC is what you should realistically expect as an average dividend - .015 from mining and .005 from hardware.  

Also, with the price of bitcoin declining vs the USD, new money coming in for mining hardware will be lower for two reasons.  First, mining a bitcoin will not be worth as much in USD. And, second, a bitcoin will cost less.  This means the equillibrium price for converting USD to mining hardware is lower than it was and less USD will be converted into demand for mining equipment.

In my view, this is great news for the long term and bad news for the short term for Asicminer shareholder return.  If you bought shares yesterday, you're screwed for a while. But if you didn't sell yesterday, don't worry - you will continue to receive a steady stream of dividends for years to come that will more than offset the short term price decline.

total nonsense.  

For one, this week only had USB sales, and even then, hardware was .007.  Blades are the big ticket item, the big seller, and where we make money on hardware.  And we've got new ones coming for sale soon (including the mini blade, a new offering).

Share price will likely hit 4.25, and then go back up to 5 as everyone buys the cheap shares everywhere.

Typical bear trap after the big rise.

[Jutarul]

First of all falling Bitcoin is securing ASICMINER. Why?

1. You have more and more reasonable price for Bitcoin which leads to thinking AM is less risky
2. Bitcoin users use AM as hedge so if btc falls, you can sell them or buy AM, get dividents and also hope for bigger price
3. More real value of btc (I see it around $40-70) means less space for AM competition which will have harder start

Actually a falling BTC price should lead to a drop in AM valuation.
a. purchasing power of the bitcoin is lower, thus the upkeep (rental,bills,overhead,power) becomes more expensive, leading to lower mining dividends
b. less incentive to acquire mining equipment (collapse of the sales market), since the market offers bitcoins at a decent price (thus stabilizing bitcoin price eventually).

but you're right with respect to 3. A collapse of the purchasing power of bitcoin will lead to an environment where the competition (which didn't lock in profits by now) will simply be squeezed out, leading to maybe a few survivors. As such AM is well positioned. A BTC price undervaluation actually gives the company a little bit of breathing room with respect to hardware development, because of the diminishing returns for starting competitions.

[Eric Muyser]

Let's say every week is 0.022 (current dividend) and the price is 4.25 (current price), the yearly APR is 27%.

However, it's not 0.022 every week, and the average is actually around 0.026 (the last 8 dividends), the yearly APR is 33%.

4.5 brings it to exactly 30% and so I think that's where we'll hover until blade sales in a week or two. 30% has always seemed like the right spot to balance.

Seems like we really wanted a higher dividend like 0.035 this week, and if we got it, were ready for 5. We didn't, so we'll wait at 4.5.

[velacreations]

and back up it goes!

better get them fast, boys...  it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!

[Eric Muyser]

and back up it goes!

better get them fast, boys...  it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!

What... no way is it going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while.

[velacreations]

and back up it goes!

better get them fast, boys...  it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!

What... no way is it going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while.

it just hit 4.9 on BTCT.  Sell orders filled all the way to the 4.9.

The demand is still here, and you'll see many people (like me) grabbing these cheap shares while we can.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

and back up it goes!

better get them fast, boys...  it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!

What... no way is it going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while.

it just hit 4.9 on BTCT

No such trade in the history. Where are you getting that from? Lowest ask doesn't count.

[velacreations]

Largest spread I've ever seen on AM:

[Eric Muyser]

and back up it goes!

better get them fast, boys...  it'll be over 5 in a few minutes!

What... no way is it going over 5. We touched base with 5.1 and it wasn't meant to be this week. We're looking at 4.3-4.6 for a while.

it just hit 4.9 on BTCT

No such trade in the history. Where are you getting that from? Lowest ask doesn't count.

Don't be a bubble boy velacreations.

[binaryFate]

Just knowing these blades will be announced soon is pushing price up.
The short term forthcoming news are known to be good, there is at least a consensus on that. And everybody wants to get in prior to any amazing-announcement triggering more demand, and not wait stupidly after the announcement to catch the train too late, that's naturaly what we're all trying to do (well, say, buyers). So even without blades dividends actually in shareholders pockets yet, I think the price will still increase meanwhile, maybe just slightly slower than in the last crazy week. 

[velacreations]

Don't be a bubble boy velacreations.

save some of those cheap shares for the rest of us, Eric...

[velacreations]

sell orders below 4.75 are not lasting at all right now.  That makes me think we'll settle around ~4.8 this afternoon, and start working back up to 5 tomorrow when FC gives us the updated about the new Blades for sale soon.

[freedomno1]

He-he Knew it would be dividends  
Well now its back to what I consider the "normal growth trajectory" in quotes since this is bitcoin but lets the panic go a bit longer I like them cheap as many others do  
Except if == Friedcat
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