ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[pikeadz]

Holy shit.  Glad I didn't sell at 2.6. 

[pikeadz]

Those who trade on bitfunder, check your accounts and report here.  Two people are reporting missing coins/shares. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=239819.new#new

[velacreations]

Those who trade on bitfunder, check your accounts and report here.  Two people are reporting missing coins/shares. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=239819.new#new

mine are fine.

it's kinda stupid, you can see who your shares went to.  Let's see the transaction history, and see if the same person is stealing shares.

[velacreations]

Ok, back to the topic at hand.  Where do we see the price by next dividend?  3.5?  4?  871?

[vesper39]

Next dividend will still have no sale of blades/usb again. Prob 0.018 - 0.022 per share. Then possibly expect a record breaking dividend the first week new blades are on auction 

[velacreations]

it will have USB sales, like last week.

FC said some blades to be released this week, not sure if that means through auction or what.

I agree, when the new blades go up for sale, we'll see decent revenue.

[Eric Muyser]

Those who trade on bitfunder, check your accounts and report here.  Two people are reporting missing coins/shares. 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=239819.new#new

Seems like a smeer campaign by a multi-accounter, maybe trying to incite something.

[bitcoinplay]

I am selling 25 shares for BTC. PM me for offers

[freedomno1]

Holy shit.  Glad I didn't sell at 2.6. 

Bought some at 2.6, sold at 3.
Well, not as much as I would have wanted. I only sold what I bought at 2.6 because I don't want to have all my assets in ASICMINER.

Sold too a nice profit Guess I'll nap for a while and diversify 

[chkgk]

3.228 btc/share, wtf? Why did I sell part of my stocks?

Seriously, these increases cannot be healthy. They are in no way backed by any "fundamentals" (i know, i know.. fundamentals in virtual stocks on a digital currency.. but you get the drift). The last announcement by friedcat helped clarify the drop in hashrate during the last days, but there was hardly more than that.

You might argue that he said that new hardware was on its way, but hey, we all knew that beforehand.. That should have already been included in the market price of the asset long ago.

Any ideas why we see this dramatic increase (+15% in just hours) now?

[neilol]

His post was pretty positive..and everyone who panic sold because of hash drop is re-buying.

[supert]

Prepare yourselves: I'm about to post on-topic!

Looking on btct.co, the typical dividend yield seems to be about 5%. Even Satoshidice, which I would have thought is one of the more reputable (!) outfits in BTC land, is yielding less.

Yet ASICMINER currently yields 33% p.a. at a weekly div of .02 and price of 3.2.

There can only be three explanations:

1. ASICMINER is inherently more risky than the other plays, and frie[n]dcat is a scammer

2. ASICMINER is massively undervalued (yield of 5% gives price of 20!?)

3. Other outfits are massively overvalued

Why is the market's risk appetite so much lower for ASICMINER? I have some sympathy for (3).

Obvious to you all no doubt. please enlighten me.

[chkgk]

I'm prepared!  Here we go:

1. friedcat has quite the reputation around here and he has paid out lots and lots of btc in dividends already. I do not see any evidence for him being a bigger scammer than anyone else

2. I don't really think so. Seeing that investors in btc stocks / bonds etc all face the same kinds of risks (namely counter-party, exchange rate, market, regulatory and general operational risks) demanding significantly more than the "usual" 5% yield is totally understandable. I'm not sure how you think about it, but I would probably demand at least 20% yield on this asset class.

3. They are! Just look at basic mining as a example. Yesterday, they announced the arrival of a single 65gh/s miner, which had their share price skyrocket from 0.6 to 1.5 (as of now). Sure, they increased their hash rate from 2.1gh/s to 65gh/s, BUT that does not mean there is a 35 fold increase in dividends! Actually, dividends only increased by a factor of 4. Why is that, you ask? - because they also hold 100 Asicminer shares which currently generate the major portion of their dividends, so their increase in hash rate does not have a big influence at all.

[neilol]

Prepare yourselves: I'm about to post on-topic!

Looking on btct.co, the typical dividend yield seems to be about 5%. Even Satoshidice, which I would have thought is one of the more reputable (!) outfits in BTC land, is yielding less.

Yet ASICMINER currently yields 33% p.a. at a weekly div of .02 and price of 3.2.

There can only be three explanations:

1. ASICMINER is inherently more risky than the other plays, and frie[n]dcat is a scammer

2. ASICMINER is massively undervalued (yield of 5% gives price of 20!?)

3. Other outfits are massively overvalued

Why is the market's risk appetite so much lower for ASICMINER? I have some sympathy for (3).

Obvious to you all no doubt. please enlighten me.

Great post - I believe it is a mix of #1 and #3

#1
ASICMINER is inherently risky (more so than sentiment here would lead to believe, I think) because we have such huge unknowns. Friedcat is very opaque, we have almost no specific information about what is actually going on with this company in terms of the next six-twelve months, aside from vague product launches and mining targets. We also do not know how easily both of these will be achieved in 6 months.

#3
For example, the amount of risk priced into an asset like Satoshidice is WAY TOO SMALL. 5% yield for an asset that has no legal bounds, counterparty risk all over the place (both in the underlying security and on the exchange side <3 burnside), tech risk(hackers) and low barrier to entry. Especially when you can grab stocks on the NYSE with near 5% div yields after tax.

#2 is less relevant - I still believe ASICMINER is undervalued on a long term scale, but it commands ATLEAST a 20% yield with how risky the venture is at the moment. There are unknown competitors coming to the market, we don't know where things will shake out. Keep in mind, if friedcat started to see an end coming, he ~could~ just up and leave. We all trust (risk) he wants to continue and maintain a reputation going into the future.

[freedomno1]

This is the speculation thread
I sold out so I'll wait till Wednesday and see how the market reacts to lower dividends this price seems to be going up but might scare a few weak hands when the dividend comes in low of course the week after  
A great way to end a Friday

[SOSLOVE868]

This is the speculation thread
I sold out so I'll wait till Wednesday and see how the market reacts to lower dividends this price seems to be going up but might scare a few weak hands when the dividend comes in low of course the week after  
A great way to end a Friday

I think those weak hands will slowly realize that AM is the best Assets  generate positive value so far.....Weak hands been seriously hurt by this Wednesday...they are bleeding and crying right now.

[SaintFlow]

As in crying that i did not buy more....

[freedomno1]

This is the speculation thread
I sold out so I'll wait till Wednesday and see how the market reacts to lower dividends this price seems to be going up but might scare a few weak hands when the dividend comes in low of course the week after  
A great way to end a Friday

I think those weak hands will slowly realize that AM is the best Assets  generate positive value so far.....Weak hands been seriously hurt by this Wednesday...they are bleeding and crying right now.

Honestly a whole lot of positive news was on the 2 week horizon for real (NOT BFL) and the market reacted to the lower dividend instead lol
So I'm chalking one down to market mentality lets see if it becomes 2
If not then I'll get back in sooner than later ha-ha
Just need to go back a few pages lol

Reference note page 11 to now
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.200

[SOSLOVE868]

As in crying that i did not buy more....

...I am hold very steady....we should be near 3.5 by this week,because right now most weaker are sold out their shares ,the rest of us are true believer ,and 3.5 may be next trigger point to sell... 3 is passed ,most people are not interested to selling their shares below 3.5 from my opinion, there are not big sell orders in both exchange below 3.5 right now.

[helixone]

Interesting variances in AM last prices:

BTCT.CO ASICMINER-PT 3.30
BTCT.CO: TAT.ASICMINER 0.03249 (3.24/share)
HAVELOCK: ASICM 0.0319 (3.19/share)
BF: G-ASICMINER-PT 3.1498
BF: TAT.ASICMINER 0.0307 (3.07/share)

What's the "real" market price?

-helixone