RationalSpeculator
Sr. Member
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Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
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September 21, 2013, 03:02:43 PM |
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This is the problem with people who win money without having earned it. They can't fucking handle the responsibility, don't feel entitled to it, and ultimately implode.
Wauw, what a sore losers here. Ofcourse he earned those winnings. He took the chance, risked losing and won. Allover, congratulations.
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Rampion
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
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September 21, 2013, 03:27:37 PM |
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I must give it to him though, his strategy is good. Variance is a bitch sweet if you know to stop while ahead. Even if that is temporary, you stand out above most gamblers. And playing with such large amount of money you have to dare. I mean he gambles $10k/$50k with a click. Loses/wins $200k in a few seconds. And is likely willing to lose 1 million USD on JD. Unless he is a billionaire, that's serious money for him too.
Always remember, the house can be down with not 5% like yesterday but 80% according to simulations done here before. That is if his roll is as big as the house (40k btc) which it may.
I'm wondering what if his roll is 'only' 10k btc, 4 times less than house? Does that mean maximum drawdown in simulation would not be -80% for house, but also 4 times less: -20% for house?
I agree he dares, he just needs to dare to play more.
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MikkisJ
Member
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Activity: 126
Merit: 11
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September 21, 2013, 03:40:59 PM |
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But, as an investor, I have to divest and withdraw, I'm afraid you are sort of hating me now, which is dangerous for further communication.
Dooglus never even suggested he would take your bitcoins. Even if he doesn't like it when you win a lot, you're still just a gambler who uses JD, and I don't think anyone is going to stop you or ban you from JD or steal your coins. So stop suggesting such bullshit.
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wolverine.ks
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September 21, 2013, 03:44:49 PM |
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doog, bet announcements in the chat are super spam. any chance of getting those blocked?
any work being done on separate chats?
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romerun
Legendary
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Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
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September 21, 2013, 03:45:36 PM |
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well, is it possible to make it more random, coz nakowa is able to see pretty good patterns in the current randomness, so far.. Also it scares the shit out of me (and most investors I guess) seeing 100+ a bet.
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Rannasha
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September 21, 2013, 04:05:38 PM |
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well, is it possible to make it more random, coz nakowa is able to see pretty good patterns in the current randomness, so far.. Also it scares the shit out of me (and most investors I guess) seeing 100+ a bet.
It already is random. Nakowa is lucky.
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elm
Legendary
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Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
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September 21, 2013, 04:20:08 PM |
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This is the problem with people who win money without having earned it. They can't fucking handle the responsibility, don't feel entitled to it, and ultimately implode.
Wauw, what a sore losers here. Ofcourse he earned those winnings. He took the chance, risked losing and won. Allover, congratulations. AGREE
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jonitas
Newbie
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Activity: 57
Merit: 0
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September 21, 2013, 04:35:57 PM |
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@themagicdrake: Thanks for the charts! Shows nicely how very very lucky he was.
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Hfleer
Sr. Member
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Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Changing avatars is currently not possible.
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September 21, 2013, 05:02:37 PM |
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Wow, site profit is down a lot. Feel bad for the investors.
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Hfleer
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
Changing avatars is currently not possible.
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September 21, 2013, 05:12:52 PM |
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doog, bet announcements in the chat are super spam. any chance of getting those blocked?
I agree I couldn't see what others were saying/scroll up because of the wall of spam announcements at times.
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bitme
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September 21, 2013, 05:53:57 PM |
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Congratulations to Nakowa. As investor to the site i hope You'll come back soon;)
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NXT makes the Difference My nxtforum account : bitme
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molecular
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
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September 21, 2013, 07:03:02 PM |
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Nakowa, quit now! Never turn back. Buy cocaine some weed and hookers (if legal in your jurisdiction) and be happy about your winnings.
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PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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shawshankinmate37927
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September 21, 2013, 07:17:09 PM |
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Dooglus, is there any chance you can generate a list of the JD all-time top 10 winners?
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"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford
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andrew12
Member
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Activity: 67
Merit: 10
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September 21, 2013, 08:59:32 PM |
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Dooglus, is there any chance you can generate a list of the JD all-time top 10 winners?
It's not exactly for all of time, but it's got most of the data you're probably looking for (near the bottom) - https://just-dice.com/biggest.txt
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Oleander
Newbie
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Activity: 45
Merit: 0
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September 22, 2013, 01:09:09 AM |
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The Kelly Criterion derives from a model that differs from JD's real situation in a couple of important ways.
First, in the Kelly model, the player with the edge controls the betting. Since he has an edge, he keeps on betting. In contrast, with JD the house has the edge but must wait passively for the whales to bet. Since the whales don't have an edge, they can and should stop when they're ahead.
Second, the Kelly model runs on "bet time", where the unit of time is one bet. The Kelly Criterion maximizes the return over the number of bets. In contrast, JD runs on "calendar time". Investors count their return in percent per day or month or year, and count their opportunity cost the same way.
Because of these differences, it does not follow that setting the maximum bet based on the Kelly Criterion will maximize JD's return in calendar time.
The maximum bet policy has been questioned before, and it's always been answered by an appeal to the Kelly Criterion, or to simulations based on the Kelly model. I'm suggesting that the model doesn't match the reality, so it's time for a fresh look.
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mechs
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September 22, 2013, 01:42:46 AM |
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The Kelly Criterion derives from a model that differs from JD's real situation in a couple of important ways.
First, in the Kelly model, the player with the edge controls the betting. Since he has an edge, he keeps on betting. In contrast, with JD the house has the edge but must wait passively for the whales to bet. Since the whales don't have an edge, they can and should stop when they're ahead.
Second, the Kelly model runs on "bet time", where the unit of time is one bet. The Kelly Criterion maximizes the return over the number of bets. In contrast, JD runs on "calendar time". Investors count their return in percent per day or month or year, and count their opportunity cost the same way.
Because of these differences, it does not follow that setting the maximum bet based on the Kelly Criterion will maximize JD's return in calendar time.
The maximum bet policy has been questioned before, and it's always been answered by an appeal to the Kelly Criterion, or to simulations based on the Kelly model. I'm suggesting that the model doesn't match the reality, so it's time for a fresh look.
The issue that there is an extemely lopsided distribution to bet sizes making the variance massive. 99% of bets under 1 BTC 0.99% if bets under 10 BTC Only 0.01% of bets over 10 BTC, and many of those are actually over 100 BTC I think Kelly holds when all bets are about equal sizes (or within a stanard differential are 2). However, this is not the scenario as it plays out on J-D since there only exists 1 or 2 players who can take advantage of the max bet and for the rest a max bet of 100BTC would be enough for thr other 99.99% of players
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mechs
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September 22, 2013, 01:45:33 AM |
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I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog. My guess is he is out and unaware. This DDoS issue is quite out of control.
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shawshankinmate37927
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September 22, 2013, 02:02:34 AM |
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I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog. My guess is he is out and unaware. This DDoS issue is quite out of control.
I'm logged onto JD with no issues right now.
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"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford
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infested999
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September 22, 2013, 02:10:29 AM |
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I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog. My guess is he is out and unaware. This DDoS issue is quite out of control.
I'm logged onto JD with no issues right now. What IP?
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shawshankinmate37927
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September 22, 2013, 02:54:13 AM |
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I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog. My guess is he is out and unaware. This DDoS issue is quite out of control.
I'm logged onto JD with no issues right now. What IP? Not sure how to get the IP address, I'm on an iPad. Probably doesn't help you, but the URL is: https://just-dice.com/
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"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford
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