daemonfox
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January 21, 2014, 06:15:59 PM |
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Just a thought: It seems to me a better chart of labrat mining performance - in contrast to the dual hashrate & difficulty chart - would be a graph of the cumulative daily delta of the percentage changes of hashrate and difficulty since inception. It seems this would account for the area under the curves and give a better idea on the trend of LRM decay or growth.
Spreadsheets, I love spreadsheets. (is that weird?) I have difficulty and hashrate data from the beginning if someone would like to do the percentages, other than that I can get around to them when I have a moment. Post em on Drive we will do the rest lol!
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Lab_Rat (OP)
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January 21, 2014, 06:16:21 PM |
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Dunno why people are coming down on grnbrg -- I quite enjoyed the heads up that info was coming, and even LR himself said he'd possibly post something that very evening. Obviously there were some variables that were not initially apparent, and I'd prefer that LR post definites than maybes, so for me the wait isn't a big deal. grnbrg had nothing to do with that, and I for one would still enjoy his tidbits of news (so don't let the mob dissuade you grnbrg!). He said it was great news, which is good enough for me. LR will undoubtedly post something very soon. My guess: we'll get somewhere in the range of 300TH/s --> 3PH/s in the chute. plus, GD BFL will be delivering in... 2 weeks. I await the word of the LR Thank you, I would've posted that night except I'm coordinating news releases with 2 other entities. Trust me I'm just as ready to put the news out there as you are to hear it.
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Lab_Rat (OP)
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January 21, 2014, 06:37:30 PM |
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BKM
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January 21, 2014, 07:39:31 PM |
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Hmmm- looks like we are due for another straight up blue line step..... imminently
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||bit
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January 21, 2014, 07:48:55 PM Last edit: January 21, 2014, 08:12:19 PM by ||bit |
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Just a thought: It seems to me a better chart of labrat mining performance - in contrast to the dual hashrate & difficulty chart - would be a graph of the cumulative daily delta of the percentage changes of hashrate and difficulty since inception. It seems this would account for the area under the curves and give a better idea on the trend of LRM decay or growth.
Spreadsheets, I love spreadsheets. (is that weird?) I have difficulty and hashrate data from the beginning if someone would like to do the percentages, other than that I can get around to them when I have a moment. Thanks. I think the tricky part with my suggestion will be figuring out where to start measuring hashrate growth. Theoretically, LRM could have bought simply one USB miner, and just bought maybe two USB miners a month later and growth would beat difficulty. But that would be deceptive... So, somehow factoring in original invested funds seems important. Perhaps, the way to do this is to use a starting theoretical hashrate (i.e. what amount of hardware could have been purchased and placed in hand immediately). So, you would see a major percentage drop from the start until most hardware eventually came online. Some of that hardware has yet to come online (e.g. BFL Monarchs). Oh boy, then there's a potential issue of accumulating percentage increases with percentage decreases - i.e. a 10% increase doesn't cancel out a 10% decrease. Maybe, I'm making this too difficult.
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sparky999
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January 21, 2014, 07:55:43 PM |
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ffs just give us an estimate when your gonna release the info hours days two frickin weeks?
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bigasic
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January 21, 2014, 07:59:40 PM |
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Dunno why people are coming down on grnbrg -- I quite enjoyed the heads up that info was coming, and even LR himself said he'd possibly post something that very evening. Obviously there were some variables that were not initially apparent, and I'd prefer that LR post definites than maybes, so for me the wait isn't a big deal. grnbrg had nothing to do with that, and I for one would still enjoy his tidbits of news (so don't let the mob dissuade you grnbrg!). He said it was great news, which is good enough for me. LR will undoubtedly post something very soon. My guess: we'll get somewhere in the range of 300TH/s --> 3PH/s in the chute. plus, GD BFL will be delivering in... 2 weeks. I await the word of the LR From the looks of things, we are going to need to be close to a PH very soon.. I would have never guessed that the difficulty would be this high when I figured out worse/best case scenarios when I made my asic orders 1.5 yrs ago. Then again, I didn't think the bitcoin would hit 1k this last year either. I have a feeling that the news will be well received...
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elitenoob
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January 21, 2014, 08:24:59 PM |
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From the looks of things, we are going to need to be close to a PH very soon.. I would have never guessed that the difficulty would be this high when I figured out worse/best case scenarios when I made my asic orders 1.5 yrs ago. Then again, I didn't think the bitcoin would hit 1k this last year either. I have a feeling that the news will be well received...
1 ph? are you insane? That would be 40x times of the dividends we receive now. Well i would like to see a weekly dividend of around 8 BTC but thats just utopian
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||bit
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January 21, 2014, 08:48:14 PM |
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Well, anyone correct me on this, but my math shows some no so encouraging results for LRM over time. With bond holders buying in with an anticipated initial target hashrate of 100MH/bond. At 50,000 bonds then, that comes out to about LRM hashing at 6500GH. Currently, LRM is a little less than 400% above that value.... but.... Difficulty is has increased 4400% since inception.
LRM should be hashing at ~250TH to simply be on par and indicating a sustainable trend.
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fractal02
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January 21, 2014, 09:25:48 PM |
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News must be pretty epic...
LRM need to make bonds attractive. Right now, 0.055BTC for 295mh/s is way overpriced when you can buy, on other place, 1gh/s or even higher.
But i have faith on LRM and LabRat.
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grnbrg
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January 21, 2014, 09:28:38 PM |
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LRM need to make bonds attractive. Right now, 0.055BTC for 295mh/s is way overpriced when you can buy, on other place, 1gh/s or even higher.
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter. grnbrg.
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contactmike1
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January 21, 2014, 09:31:25 PM |
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LRM should be hashing at ~250TH to simply be on par and indicating a sustainable trend.
The equipment coming should be in that range, plus the ASIC project. I would propose we are reasonably on target for sustainability. (Ok, will be on target based on what is planned for the future.)
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fractal02
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January 21, 2014, 09:38:34 PM |
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LRM need to make bonds attractive. Right now, 0.055BTC for 295mh/s is way overpriced when you can buy, on other place, 1gh/s or even higher.
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter. grnbrg.
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||bit
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January 21, 2014, 10:39:00 PM |
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LRM should be hashing at ~250TH to simply be on par and indicating a sustainable trend.
The equipment coming should be in that range, plus the ASIC project. I would propose we are reasonably on target for sustainability. (Ok, will be on target based on what is planned for the future.) Reaching near 250 TH (the approximate par level for current difficulty) isn't expected for maybe two or two-and-a-half more months from now, according to LRM webpage.
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sparky999
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January 21, 2014, 11:04:58 PM |
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Think I just figured out who the asic project is with. Active mining and People's Asic they just taped out a 55nm delivery in Q2 2014.
PRESS RELEASE
Springfield, MO and Santa Jose, CA – January 21, 2014 – Active Mining Corporation (Belize) (AMC) a bitcoin Mining and Hardware Manufacture, and People's ASIC a stealth Silicon Valley startup founded by two veteran engineers is proud to announce today the tape-out of their 55 nm UMC Bitcoin Mining ASIC. The ASIC features SHA256 optimizations according to a scientific paper by Dadda et al.
Simultaneously, AMC has acquired the Intellectual Property (Verilog code, test bench, GDS-II data, etc. for the 55nm UMC Bitcoin Mining ASIC. Delivery of chips is expected in Q2/2014. Also, AMC will use the same design team and code which successfully taped out the 55 nm on AMC's eASIC's 28 nm. EASIC's 28 nm development has been upgraded to a full custom 28 nm.
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bigasic
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January 21, 2014, 11:11:55 PM |
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When I say we need to be at a PH, I mean by this spring time. Would love to have a PH now, but i think its possible if everything goes as planned. I really hope the asic project works out, I think thats going to save our bacon (along with the other ideas that LR has and yet to announce).. With cointerra and the rest, the difficulty will easily double in the next 3 months or so.
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M31
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January 22, 2014, 12:52:52 AM |
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Maintaining a steady 1-2% of the network seems like a good goal. In the next 3 years we'll begin to run up against facility/power costs (and of course need to make our own ASICs, selling some to subsidize). At that point, finding cheap power will be our new obstacle, and I can certainly imagine, if LRM is one of the biggest miners out there, that we'd buy or rent an entire hydro facility. Undoubtedly, the visionaries are currently looking for such, in areas that may not have the right infrastructure for powering homes -- like $$ transmission lines. Right now, power is still a small % of cost when compared to what we make, so even going with a larger nm ASIC is not a big deal; the big deal is getting it done ASAP. Time is our enemy... I'd rather have a PH/s of 55-65nm ASICs running today, than wait 18 months for 14nm ASICs.
Any ideas on diversification for LRM?
- ATMs, in other countries - Rental of hashing power? For this one I think a constant value bond works best. Instead of a fixed bond in a fluctuating network, set the bond as fixed by making it a percentage of the network. Ex: buy a 0.000001%/network for x amount. Bond would auto-expire in, say, 30 days, and you'd get your BTC back, plus any earnings. Of course, this would require adding hardware to keep up, but that would be reflected in the initial bond price, plus profit for LRM. It would be like a 30 day government bond. Locked in and a known quantity for investors. - Resales of hashing power (kind of like the second idea, but at a wholesale rate to people who can use it however they like. MLMs, forums not related to BTC, derivative packages). - Gift cards that sell not BTC or hardware, but bonds. I'd like to send my cousin 1 LRM bond - it comes with a wallet and login info to activate, and is in either a physical or virtual format, or both. - Design new hardware configurations: modular miner -- a 40ft container miner (say, 0.5-1PH/s at today's tech). Power, cooling and data is all a user needs to worry about, and it can be trucked anywhere, operating in extremes (like near a dam out in the open). Something like Google did early on. It could be trucked to where the cheap power is, or trucked to where heat could be used, for desalination for example. It could be stacked and expanded, and all remotely managed by LRM. - Co-generation opportunities: find businesses that need heating, and offer it at a lower cost using modular miner.
^^ those ideas are pretty specific to LRM. I've many more that are not, so will not bother with them here, but am just wondering if anyone has any ideas to add, during our news wait.
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Mindsync Miner
Member
Offline
Activity: 69
Merit: 10
An independent miner.
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January 22, 2014, 02:29:01 AM |
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Any ideas on diversification for LRM? ...
Some while back somebody here identified the ASIC venture as "feature creep". What you did here was take the feature creep ball and ran with it Gotta say I like the 40ft container idea. The others as well, however I think much of it falls outside the purview of what LRM was established to be. Focus on hashing is where this started and where it should remain for some time. I didn't buy LRM with the idea of becoming the next Google or Microsoft. This is a small operation so focus is crucial. The fore-mentioned companies started with sharp focus on search and operating systems respectively. Still, Larry Page and Bill Gates surely dreamed of what might be. My 2 satoshis is to put the conjecture aside until such ideas are closer to being actionable.
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You'll know me as dgiors in some other forums. LTC: LWUQSovF76vTPoCnoH9NzfChX6dxQ6Qra7 BTC: 1MQLfiKA5A6goEiSwMdVyVvFw4YgCj489V
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Lab_Rat (OP)
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January 22, 2014, 04:52:39 AM |
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I will say one thing as this is a side note to the actual release. Power costs are far UNDER $0.02/kWh for LRM starting in March so LRM is not going anywhere for a very very very long time.
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M31
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January 22, 2014, 04:55:36 AM |
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I will say one thing as this is a side note to the actual release. Power costs are far UNDER $0.02/kWh for LRM starting in March so LRM is not going anywhere for a very very very long time.
Music to a miner's ears Lab_Rat Cheap power -- well, that's more than cheap!
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