Since there is a lot of speculation going on about exchange-listings:
The following is a scenario, focused on the exchange-situation.
It’s a combination of what I know about exchanges in general and given informations from and about Savedroid. It will not be totally accurate or a safe prediction. I think in probabilites. But it is realistic and with some tendency to be likely in my opinion.
Background about the Savedroid-situation:
Information: Yassin Hankir said in the AMA that many exchanges demand high amounts of money for a listing, up to or even above $1 million. He also said about the announced top 5 exchange that he can’t say anything about it, because it’s under NDA.
And yes, it is true that at least some Exchanges sell listings for high amounts and also NDA’s during negotiations are common. They don’t like it to be public but it’s also not a secret. Btw, usually also projects don’t talk about bought listings. That he did and what his intention might be, … let’s get back to that later.
In this post I’ve already pointed on the fact that they’ve used the announcement of a top 5 exchange to hype their ICO, to give it a last push 4 days before it ended:
savedroid ICO: SVD Token will be traded on top 5 exchange
https://medium.com/@ico_8796/savedroid-ico-svd-token-will-be-traded-on-top-5-exchange-f45a453ca3efSidenote: They have used everything they could think of to hype the shit out of the ICO. That’s visible everywhere. I mention that because it shows that they are not just greedy but also unexperienced/stupid/careless. There are several good reasons why legit teams don’t do that, rational reasons - not about idealism or whatever. But, I don’t want to write a book about that, so, back to topic:
A potential scenario regarding the exchange-situation:
They’ve started negotiations with such an exchange or probably asked all of the bigger ones during the ICO. It could have started with a simple question if there would be a way to get listed, if yes how much it would cost etc. But it’s not likely that anything was finalized. More likely is a Memorandum of understanding and that Savedroid had a financial strategy that could have looked like this:
- we are four days before the end of the ICO
- we already know that we have raised many millions
- we would have to pay xxxx Dollar for a listing
- since such an announcement is likely to give the ICO a last big push it would be beneficial to do it. Maybe it would not only pay for itself but even lead to much more money, plus: the market situation after the ICO would be better with a good listing (not even sure if they are capable to think more than just superficially about market-dynamics and potential effects)Good exchange-listings have multiple, especially several psychological, effects. So there might be some probability that it seemed to be a good decision to come to an agreement, that they would pay for a listing. And that may have given them the option to announce a top 5 exchange. Why it is unlikely that anything was finalized at that time: They were not able to pay and are still not able to do that.
There are two other possibilities:
1) The top 5 announcement was a lie. I don’t want to say that this scenario is likely but it’s not impossible. Reason: Since they don’t say which exchange they also wouldn’t have to be too scared that any of them would dispute, while such an announcement is safe to bring in more money.
2) That there is not even some kind of agreement, that they just thought: "Yes, we’ll pay what they told us" but without that the exchange already agreed.
Situation now - after the PR-Stunt
Important in that context is that there is a new situation now, that is unlikely to have no consequences. Potentially there are at least two important kinds of bad consequences:
They’ve successfully burned down their own credibility. What I can read out of the german media-echo is: They are toxic now. Even payment and banking (those who gave them the award and revoked it after the „Exit-Scam-Prank“)
destroy Savedroid now publicly, brand them as snakeoil, not credible, buggy software and so on. Their reason to do so: Probably they want to come clean now and burn all bridges to Savedroid. And of course one can be critical about that move, but if focused only on facts, the given information in that article are true in my opinion. Savedroid is and never was what so many hoped to see in this project.
Another consequence is the financial side. Yassir said in his AMA that especially big Investors would like his PR-Stunt. What he says there between the lines actually is:
Big and smart Fintech-Guys see how genius it was, just little and stupid Crypto-Kids still don't get it! But how likely is that? Sure, there is no lack of stupid and/or unexperienced millionaires. Rich guys are not necessarily smarter. But let's stay rational here. It's simply not possible that all of them liked it. I believe it’s the opposite. It's just that rich guys don’t write posts here. They call their lawyers. Yassin also said that not all the ICO-money was in Escrow. Savedroid has made contracts with individual Investors, maybe even with individual conditions. And it’s very likely that many of those contracts are now under review in law firms to find a way to get the money back. In case of NDA's nothing of that is likely to reach the public. The thing here is: Since lawyers tend to do research instead of taking action in an impulsive way, and they are not in a hurry, Savedroid could be in the bad situation that they don't even now yet what may come on the legal front and how much money they may be forced to give back. I believe he also said that big guys liked it to calm down other big guys who maybe didn't like it while he doesn't even know that until now.
Under the line: It’s something I can’t know but they may have to sell back huge amounts. Plus: Many bought into the ICO using Credit Cards. Those guys can reverse transactions (a reason why Savedroid will not give them token until the money is safe).
Now, keep in mind the above - back to the exchange topic:Savedroid has burned down it’s own credibility and professional exchanges also have their „due diligence list“. Of course they want to avoid to list scams and projects that may turn out as that, because that would damage their own credibility. It’s simply not possible that a serious and professional exchange will just go over this insane PR-Stunt and say "yeah, great!" or "whatever". Much more likely is that they don’t want to list Savedroid anymore, or: that they’ve changed the conditions and that a listing would be much more expensive now.
Combine that with Savedroids situation on the legal and financial side, that it’s likely that they don’t know yet how much they’ll have to pay back, especially to big Investors and Credit Card Users, and that they don’t know what costs they will have to spend to clean up the legal side etc. There are many signs, that they are
scared like... #hopefully.
And if this guy here doesn’t lie, and I believe he tells the truth, this is how Savedroid reacts on guys who want to have their money back:
"Savedroid has destroyed its own reputation whether or not its an exit scam. I believe the majority of us would like a refund and it is crazy for them to lock tokens for 180 days but only give us a short period of 14 days to refund. Very unfair terms and I will be taking action under the Consumer Protection Act 2015. I have already asked my bank for a refund as Savedroid have acted both unprofessionally and in an incompetetive manner. I am still completely unsure if this was a failed exit scam or if they are buying time to take our money.
I spoke to Tobias (co founder) and he is extremely rude and unprofessional and he said he would send me a bill if I refunded (I mean seriously, what will you do with a bill from Germany??)."Source: Comment on FB
With other words: There is a reason that they try everything not to refund, because that could lead into a dynamic with a damaging result: That they would be left with legal costs but not that much money any more. Add that they are toxic now —> RIP.
Yassin said during the AMA that he doesn’t agree to payfor a listing while I consider it as highly unlikely that they were able to get an agreement for a top-5-exchange-listing without paying for that. That’s why I said
in my last post:
„(…) it might very well be that he is already preparing excuses.“But, just for fun: Let’s assume that I'm wrong and they really were able to secure an agreement for a listing without payment on a big exchange: How likely would it be that this exchange doesn’t care about their clown-show and doesn't step back?
If you consider that as unlikely you also know in which direction this goes if he says that he doesn’t want to pay for a listing now.
Some additional words about the legal side:
I can’t know how deep the trouble is which they are in. But it’s near to impossible that no Investor has called his lawyer. Probably it’s about hundreds who did that while Savedroid is maybe not even aware of all of them. What also most likely happened: Investors have written to the escrows, to exchanges, to their bank etc. - all to make pressure to get a refund. Smart guys don’t want this to be traded, because trading would significantly reduce the chance to get a refund.
I believe that it all will depend on how safe their own legal situation is. I didn’t check their legal stuff because I don’t have the competence to come to safe conclusions. But things like that are in a grey area quiet often. That's why I believe that they also have to fight with a lot of unknowns but maybe scary stuff.
What I believe will be the result of this shit-show:
(it’s speculation of course, because there are too many unknowns to make safe predictions and the situation is not static but vibrant)
1) I believe that several big guys will get their money back. They have some power Crypto-Investors don’t have - not just because of the legal side. Several of them also may have some influence. Savedroid would be stupid to create even more enemies in the German Fintech-space and risk more bad press. Maybe they’ll just give the money back to those who are influential without much complaining.
2) I believe that Savedroid will do everything not to refund Crypto-Investors and small Investors in general. The reason is simple: If they would agree on that they would have to refund everybody who wants out. And while that would also help those who still would decide to give this a try (because less supply would reduce the risk of dumping later) the Savedroid-ppl want to keep the money of course. And they couldn’t know how many would want to be refunded if they would agree on that possibility. They could lose $20 millions easily. Since they've already proven to be hypocritical teachers who love to educate others about greed it's a safe bet that they’ll fight hard to become multi-millionairs.
#this-project-will-never-generate-more-money-than-during-their-Hype-ICO 3) I don’t believe that this will hit a big exchange. Reasons are pointed out above.
4) I don’t believe that this will not lead to significant losses once traded. Even without PR-stunt… this is so damn overvalued. It would need some hype just to keep it’s value, but after a hyped up ICO and a burned down credibility - is there anything left to hype with? Development takes time, right? And how much time was spent on that before their Clown-Show? And now… exactly!
5) Probably they will put some effort in making "everyone" believe that the PR-Stunt also had a lot of positive effects, because they are known now - so much attention! And of course they say that they will keep on with their education, with their message to help this market to become more sustainable and so on. But what should they say else? Admit that they’ve fucked up like no project before while that would directly lead into refunds? Nope… they won’t do that.
6) But yes, the scam-brand and the „fucking-stupid-idiots-brand“ is nothing they’ll ever overcome. Just check the numbers, how much retweets they get, how much views on FB, how much activity there is on reddit etc. Compare that to their successful stunt! There will also not be much more „education“ and „messages“. It’s not even that Crypto would need to forget them. Crypto has never cared much and Investors are unlikely to build buy-walls for their new stupid-clowns-who-are-scam-or-fake-brand.
And yes, I know - some or even many here don’t like to read things like this. But that’s natural in situations without any good solution. My advice is also not to simply believe what I or others say. My advice is to think cold about it all, with some distance, to just take things into consideration, to think in probabilites and to come to conclusions that are not fix but about potential scenarios. Exactly that is what this team shows a total lack of ability in, while they still want to believe to be right. For me it’s astonishing to see such an insane combination of arrogance, hypocrisy and naivety and before all: That there was nobody internally who stopped those who came up with their great fame-creating-kamikaze-scam-let’s-call-it-education-prank-strategy.
#welcometothejungle
