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Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1041937 times)
Ytterbium
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September 06, 2013, 01:00:08 PM
 #5521





... (yes, the chart does go all the way past this to 2/12/16, but I don't feel like stitching two images together this morning),

6TH/s
September 13
=.00124453/SHARE


How about the remaining 44TH/s that Labcoin is going to bring online in Mid-Late October? Nobody's perfect - lets make it November 6th!

44TH/s brought online 11/6/13 would still yield BTC45266.2753, resulting in a per-share yield of BTC.00452663!

44TH/s
November 6
=.00452663/SHARE





Dude, you really don't need to post multiple giant images with estimates for satoshi dust years out given difficulty estimates that would require all earth's electrical generation go to bitcoin mining and it's entire surface covered with data centers.  Especially since you're only talking about the first few months anyway

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BitThink
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September 06, 2013, 01:01:13 PM
 #5522

Well, since everyone here loves their numbers, let me throw some of mine into the mix:

Labcoin's plan is to bring the following hashrate online:

6TH/s in Mid-September
44TH/s additional in Mid/Late-October (total of 50TH/s)


Source:


TLDR; Things are going as planned with no delays as of yet. Labcoin expects to hash at approx 6TH within 3-4 weeks and 50TH+ by mid to late October. Serial production run of chips will start early Sept. Pictures of chips, schematics and miners etc. will be posted as they become available. Website is undergoing redesign and will feature a real-time mining statistic as soon as the mining operation goes live.


So, let's see where these numbers take us! I am using the following assumption: 35% Difficulty Increase per Period. This is a high estimate, as even the most recent DI was ~32% and that was the highest in the past few months.

We can calculate the value of this hashrate by inputting the current daily value of a 1MH/s miner and extrapolating it out to 1TH/s. Then, we multiply that daily mining value times the number of days in that Difficulty period. At 35% increases, each Difficulty period will only be 9.1 days.



So, as you can see here (yes, the chart does go all the way past this to 2/12/16, but I don't feel like stitching two images together this morning), with a Difficulty Increase factor or 35%, 6TH/s brought online in Mid-September (9/13/13) will yield approximately a total of BTC12445.3143, or BTC.00124453 per share. Even THIS is higher than the IPO price!

6TH/s
September 13
=.00124453/SHARE


How about the remaining 44TH/s that Labcoin is going to bring online in Mid-Late October? Nobody's perfect - lets make it November 6th!

44TH/s brought online 11/6/13 would still yield BTC45266.2753, resulting in a per-share yield of BTC.00452663!

44TH/s
November 6
=.00452663/SHARE




The best part - this doesn't even include hardware sales!

So, the expected value of JUST the 50TH/s that Labcoin plans to bring online is .0057721 per share, not including hardware sales, and NOT including the additional 50-150TH/s that their 65nm generation is going to bring!

50TH/s
6TH/s Sep 13 + 44TH/s Nov 6
=.0057721/SHARE




Everyone here can argue how they want, but if LC starts their early hashing on-time and their 44TH/s hashing even a week late, this stock is undervalued by 40% BEFORE hardware and additional future hashrate.

Cheers!


It seems this calculation is not correct. With 4TH, 0.5% of current network hashing rate. The daily BTC is 3600 * 0.005 = 18. Much less than the value in your table. Could you double check it. A fast computation: assume 25% DI, then the total btc mined is 5 times the amount mined in the first round. So it is 18 * 12 * 5 = 1080BTC.
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September 06, 2013, 01:07:24 PM
 #5523

Pretty sure you've made a big mistake in daily BTC outcome of both 6T and 44T. Should be around 27 and 198 respectively.
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September 06, 2013, 01:15:59 PM
 #5524

It was 6Th/s for Sept, but mysteriously morphed into 3-4Th/s. Then there was a plan to roll out 50Th/s by Oct for their 130nm chips, but they've kind of overshadowed that with their recent announcement about how way awesome their 65nm stuff is looking. That's where the 200-300Th/s storyline came from. Actually when you think it through it sounds like some guy making sh1t up as he goes along, but we'll see soon enough.

They initially estimated 4.8Gh/s/chip and 12W, but (as discussed prior) that would difficult to cool, and they're using chips with no heat pads.

Since they said they'd have about 2,000-2,500 chips that works out to a clockrate between 3TH/s/2000 chips = 1.5Gh/chip and 4TH/s/2000 = 2Gh/chip.  At 2.5W/gh that comes out to 3.75W/chip to, which would be much easier to cool.

Their calculations may have been that it was simply cheaper to use a cheaper package (with no heatpad), cheaper heatsink and twice as many chips as it would be to cool a 1cm chip putting out 12W

If you do the math the numbers are completely consistent with the number of chips and the way they're packaged.

Right. They're more on target with 3-4Th given what little we know about their chips. The 6Th original estimate is the outlier and it's a good chunk of miscalculation or fairy magic.

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September 06, 2013, 01:26:54 PM
 #5525

LC's unwillingness or inability to provide much of anything by way of technical specs or hard evidence that they're close to being ready to hash is taking a toll. That and everyone knows they should've had the boards ready before the chips even arrived. They should be hashing now.

It was 6Th/s for Sept, but mysteriously morphed into 3-4Th/s. Then there was a plan to roll out 50Th/s by Oct for their 130nm chips, but they've kind of overshadowed that with their recent announcement about how way awesome their 65nm stuff is looking. That's where the 200-300Th/s storyline came from. Actually when you think it through it sounds like some guy making sh1t up as he goes along, but we'll see soon enough.

They initially estimated 4.8Gh/s/chip and 12W, but (as discussed prior) that would difficult to cool, and they're using chips with no heat pads.

Since they said they'd have about 2,000-2,500 chips that works out to a clockrate between 3TH/s/2000 chips = 1.5Gh/chip and 4TH/s/2000 = 2Gh/chip.  At 2.5W/gh that comes out to 3.75W/chip to, which would be much easier to cool.

Their calculations may have been that it was simply cheaper to use a cheaper package (with no heatpad), cheaper heatsink and twice as many chips as it would be to cool a 1cm chip putting out 12W

If you do the math the numbers are completely consistent with the number of chips and the way they're packaged.

Right. They're more on target with 3-4Th given what little we know about their chips. The 6Th original estimate is the outlier and it's a good chunk of miscalculation or fairy magic.

I see (https://btct.co/portfolio/f8A1) you still hold 5k shares.  Why don't you sell them?   I've got buy orders waiting to be filled and it's kind of boring.

Or are you just trolling for more cheap shares?

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September 06, 2013, 01:28:33 PM
 #5526

Pretty sure you've made a big mistake in daily BTC outcome of both 6T and 44T. Should be around 27 and 198 respectively.

Would you mind showing your work? I'd like to see where I went wrong, if I did-
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September 06, 2013, 01:33:26 PM
 #5527

Pretty sure you've made a big mistake in daily BTC outcome of both 6T and 44T. Should be around 27 and 198 respectively.

Would you mind showing your work? I'd like to see where I went wrong, if I did-

Current net hash rate is around 800T, and there's 3600 BTC a day. 4T is 0.5% of the total hash rate, thus 3600 * 0.005 = 18. So 6T is 27.
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September 06, 2013, 01:39:40 PM
 #5528

LC's unwillingness or inability to provide much of anything by way of technical specs or hard evidence that they're close to being ready to hash is taking a toll. That and everyone knows they should've had the boards ready before the chips even arrived. They should be hashing now.

It was 6Th/s for Sept, but mysteriously morphed into 3-4Th/s. Then there was a plan to roll out 50Th/s by Oct for their 130nm chips, but they've kind of overshadowed that with their recent announcement about how way awesome their 65nm stuff is looking. That's where the 200-300Th/s storyline came from. Actually when you think it through it sounds like some guy making sh1t up as he goes along, but we'll see soon enough.

They initially estimated 4.8Gh/s/chip and 12W, but (as discussed prior) that would difficult to cool, and they're using chips with no heat pads.

Since they said they'd have about 2,000-2,500 chips that works out to a clockrate between 3TH/s/2000 chips = 1.5Gh/chip and 4TH/s/2000 = 2Gh/chip.  At 2.5W/gh that comes out to 3.75W/chip to, which would be much easier to cool.

Their calculations may have been that it was simply cheaper to use a cheaper package (with no heatpad), cheaper heatsink and twice as many chips as it would be to cool a 1cm chip putting out 12W

If you do the math the numbers are completely consistent with the number of chips and the way they're packaged.

Right. They're more on target with 3-4Th given what little we know about their chips. The 6Th original estimate is the outlier and it's a good chunk of miscalculation or fairy magic.

I see (https://btct.co/portfolio/f8A1) you still hold 5k shares.  Why don't you sell them?   I've got buy orders waiting to be filled and it's kind of boring.

Or are you just trolling for more cheap shares?

Did I get the address wrong? Is this *NOT* a discussion board? Is this NOT the labcoin thread? I didn't see a neon sign anywhere that said "LC Cheerleaders only".

BTW the word troll is so grotesquely overused by this point that it's really meaningless. It simply means "I disagree with you and have nothing to contribute by way of meaningful discourse". ...only abbreviated.

You self proclaimed master day traders seem to think everyone is interested in constantly flopping around from one asset to another. It's comical. I have no interest and instead invest in the exchange itself so I can benefit from all the floppers.

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September 06, 2013, 02:03:27 PM
 #5529

Thanks Guys.

So in my view the 3-4 TH/s will be good to prove that the chips works. But if we really get the 50TH/s in October, we will be in an excellent position, I believe the share price should be around 0.01 if that happens given that we would be controlling about 3% of total network hash rate and generating about 0.0002 BTC/share/month in dividends.

If we really get 200TH/s by December, we should have about 6% of the total hash rate and a share price of 0.002 is not impossible...

Good.

Share price will be higher than 0.01 BTC after the 3-4 TH/s comes online. Just look at how ActM rose to around 0.0065 simply based on confirmation of the eASIC deal and that miners would be ready mid-October. With LC actually mining, there will be a significant rise in the share price.

Maybe, but my impression is that at that time there was a lot of BTC looking for investment, and not many investment options. Since then, lots of new companies IPO, including Labcoin. I think that 0.01 is the limit until we get the actual 50TH/s online in October and all the trolls cannot even question if the chips exist, if they are for real, etc. etc.

This only happened the 2 days ago and is why ActM's price is still above 0.004. People are basically just waiting for confirmation that LC is legit and on schedule. When that happens, you'll see a lot of people sell their other shares to buy LC hoping to cash in on the inevitable price rise.


ACTM's order book is weak.  Maybe 1 person might make off decently.
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September 06, 2013, 02:04:14 PM
 #5530

Pretty sure you've made a big mistake in daily BTC outcome of both 6T and 44T. Should be around 27 and 198 respectively.

Would you mind showing your work? I'd like to see where I went wrong, if I did-

Current net hash rate is around 800T, and there's 3600 BTC a day. 4T is 0.5% of the total hash rate, thus 3600 * 0.005 = 18. So 6T is 27.


1T will mine you 5.78btc today...... http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Creativex can give you real world payouts as he pays daily divs.
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September 06, 2013, 02:04:30 PM
 #5531

I see (https://btct.co/portfolio/f8A1) you still hold 5k shares.  Why don't you sell them?   I've got buy orders waiting to be filled and it's kind of boring.

Or are you just trolling for more cheap shares?

Did I get the address wrong? Is this *NOT* a discussion board? Is this NOT the labcoin thread? I didn't see a neon sign anywhere that said "LC Cheerleaders only".

BTW the word troll is so grotesquely overused by this point that it's really meaningless. It simply means "I disagree with you and have nothing to contribute by way of meaningful discourse". ...only abbreviated.

You self proclaimed master day traders seem to think everyone is interested in constantly flopping around from one asset to another. It's comical. I have no interest and instead invest in the exchange itself so I can benefit from all the floppers.

It's called a joke dude, lighten up.


I want the price to go down so my buys orders get filled.  

The other day bargraphics was saying he sold all his ActM stock then later said that wasn't true, he'd just been saying that in an attempt to drive the price down and get more cheap shares. These positions create weird incentives. You also seemed kind of harsh for someone with 5k shares.

And, as I said - I have buy orders, and if someone were to dump 5k shares my order would get filled Grin

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September 06, 2013, 02:08:40 PM
 #5532

I apologize then. I've been attacked by so many LC cheerleaders I can't even tell who's hostile anymore.

The shares are not mine. Therefore my vigilance is increased.

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September 06, 2013, 02:10:09 PM
 #5533

I apologize then. I've been attacked by so many LC cheerleaders I can't even tell who's hostile anymore.

The shares are not mine. Therefore my vigilance is increased.

I've been called a "troll" a bunch of times by people who seem to have no tolerance for any kind of negativity. It's ridiculous.  These companies absolutely need critical analysis.

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September 06, 2013, 02:16:02 PM
 #5534

Right, but I'm talking about those specific 948k shares in that portfolio.  Those shares aren't actually worth anything, they're not "real" shares that earn dividends, as far as I can tell. "regular" BASIC-MINING shares are worth something.

It would be nice if crypto-exchanges used standard terminology.  Allocated shares vs issued shares.

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September 06, 2013, 02:33:01 PM
 #5535

Hmm, this is interesting.  Check out the ActM chart, there was a huge dump about an hour ago, if add up the entries in the history, there were 17,858 shares dumped between 14:22 and 14:25. on btct.co.  It took the price 0.00436 to 0.03921  That's an 11% drop.
 
 (I'm not sure if it was one big order and took 3m for btct to execute or it was done in three stages.)
Now, there is also a 15,000 share buy order on the board for labcoin at .0032  I noticed since I had to move my bid up to be above it. Seems like it could be related.

Until this whale gets bored there will be a price floor around 0.0032. And if they get bored and decide to just buy, they'll jack the price up to 0.003519 in order to get 15,000 shares.

This kind of thing is why you can't possibly do chart-voodoo-astrology on stocks like this.  One bored whale decides to sell activeminer, the price drops by 11%.  One bored whale decides to buy labcoin and sets a price floor that will last for days (or until he gets bored) or could potentially jack the price up by 10%. if they get impatient.

I guarantee you this whale didn't make their decision based on the number of "red engulfing candles", "diving swans", or other voodoo mysticism on the chart.

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September 06, 2013, 02:52:15 PM
 #5536

 People are just moving their money into other alternatives that are more profitable in short term bases.
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September 06, 2013, 02:57:42 PM
 #5537

I think is obvious now that it will take a while for the prices to recover. You can just spend your money on other stock and come back when they prices start to go back up. People are just moving their money into other alternatives that are more profitable in short term bases.

Like what ? AM ? lol

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September 06, 2013, 02:58:40 PM
 #5538

I think is obvious now that it will take a while for the prices to recover. You can just spend your money on other stock and come back when they prices start to go back up. People are just moving their money into other alternatives that are more profitable in short term bases.

You'll miss the price increase. Guaranteed.
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September 06, 2013, 02:59:20 PM
 #5539

I think is obvious now that it will take a while for the prices to recover. You can just spend your money on other stock and come back when they prices start to go back up. People are just moving their money into other alternatives that are more profitable in short term bases.

You'll miss the price increase. Guaranteed.

Agree. I already did that kind of mistake  Grin

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TsuyokuNaritai
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September 06, 2013, 03:03:36 PM
 #5540

I think is obvious now that it will take a while for the prices to recover. You can just spend your money on other stock and come back when they prices start to go back up. People are just moving their money into other alternatives that are more profitable in short term bases.
Not sure if wrong thread, or someone programmed their trading bot to post randomly from FUD text tables.

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