Analysis

[dmwardjr]

He made a new post that even with google translate I can't understand.
Seems like he is not using very kind words for the BCH guys

He says that the BCH attack is impressive. But it doesn't change anything, because changing constants is not the solution.

He also says we are going to slowly trend towards weekly ma20.

Weekly MA20 is around 4 500$. So that means he is bearish short term?

Well if the price moves down, the moving average will still move a bit as it's a lagging indicator.
So price and MA20 in the weekly chart could probably meet around the $4750 - $5000 area.
As the $5000 level should be tested anyway I see this as a good sign to build a good support in that zone.
So imo we could see 2-3 more weeks of downside. If we consolidate then or see a strong bounce like the other 4 times before this year needs to be seen.

We are still parabolic, I don't understand the pessimism until we break below $5000. $5500 was a perfect bounce off the parabolic curve. We could still be at $10k by Jan 1 2018. I am not thinking downturn in the market for more than 5-9 days unless we go below $5k, then I am bearish for Bitcoin near term.

It's still very possible to make it above $10k by new year "while" breaking $5k beforehand, don't you think?

[illinest]

We are still parabolic, I don't understand the pessimism until we break below $5000. $5500 was a perfect bounce off the parabolic curve. We could still be at $10k by Jan 1 2018. I am not thinking downturn in the market for more than 5-9 days unless we go below $5k, then I am bearish for Bitcoin near term.

It's still very possible to make it above $10k by new year "while" breaking $5k beforehand, don't you think?

It's possible, but I would say that breaking $5000 would add significantly more risk to buying or holding in this situation. That may not have been true a few weeks ago, but due to the parabolic shape, it is. I think everyone trading this must know we are headed for a blow off top.... the question is when?

Here's one chart that shows it well: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/929847184341712896

We bounced right off that lower log scale boundary. To come back and break below? It would look to me like momentum has been lost and we are in for a longer term correction. And that's certainly possible. I made another post about it here:

It's not over yet, that's for sure

^^ This is the consensus opinion. I have to admit, my gut reaction is to agree. But I have two thoughts on that:

1) Everyone is seeing the same thing. From the momentum traders to the EW traders, most people see a 3-swing correction coming -- more downside after a bounce. "Everyone" is usually wrong in my experience. That is, if everyone thinks they can buy the dip, there is no dip.

2) The log parabolic structure: The $5400 low was damn near perfectly placed. A bounce and another leg down will start threatening the entire structure, suggesting that the rally is over. At this point, every move up and down should be getting more and more volatile, faster and faster. That's the nature of a parabola. Accordingly, I suspect there won't be another dip before new highs.

[Rooster101]

He made a new post that even with google translate I can't understand.
Seems like he is not using very kind words for the BCH guys

He says that the BCH attack is impressive. But it doesn't change anything, because changing constants is not the solution.

He also says we are going to slowly trend towards weekly ma20.

Weekly MA20 is around 4 500$. So that means he is bearish short term?

Well if the price moves down, the moving average will still move a bit as it's a lagging indicator.
So price and MA20 in the weekly chart could probably meet around the $4750 - $5000 area.
As the $5000 level should be tested anyway I see this as a good sign to build a good support in that zone.
So imo we could see 2-3 more weeks of downside. If we consolidate then or see a strong bounce like the other 4 times before this year needs to be seen.

It seems the dust is already settled down,and the bitcoin price is going up again while the forked coin is going down.

We are still parabolic, I don't understand the pessimism until we break below $5000. $5500 was a perfect bounce off the parabolic curve. We could still be at $10k by Jan 1 2018. I am not thinking downturn in the market for more than 5-9 days unless we go below $5k, then I am bearish for Bitcoin near term.

It's still very possible to make it above $10k by new year "while" breaking $5k beforehand, don't you think?

[timerland]

He made a new post that even with google translate I can't understand.
Seems like he is not using very kind words for the BCH guys

He says that the BCH attack is impressive. But it doesn't change anything, because changing constants is not the solution.

He also says we are going to slowly trend towards weekly ma20.

Weekly MA20 is around 4 500$. So that means he is bearish short term?

Well if the price moves down, the moving average will still move a bit as it's a lagging indicator.
So price and MA20 in the weekly chart could probably meet around the $4750 - $5000 area.
As the $5000 level should be tested anyway I see this as a good sign to build a good support in that zone.
So imo we could see 2-3 more weeks of downside. If we consolidate then or see a strong bounce like the other 4 times before this year needs to be seen.

We are still parabolic, I don't understand the pessimism until we break below $5000. $5500 was a perfect bounce off the parabolic curve. We could still be at $10k by Jan 1 2018. I am not thinking downturn in the market for more than 5-9 days unless we go below $5k, then I am bearish for Bitcoin near term.

It's still very possible to make it above $10k by new year "while" breaking $5k beforehand, don't you think?

That's exactly what i'm thinking.

We're more than 50% the way there and even though currently we've experienced a big setback with the rise of BCH and the dramatic panic dump of bitcoin, i really don't see a reason why BTC can't break $10k.

December to January should be the deadline of this happening. Pumps and dumps usually happen with 1-2 month cycles at this point.

[dmwardjr]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

[cAPSLOCK]

The analysis of MasterLuc:






The analysis of other particularly loud threadcrashers:

[DieJohnny]

He made a new post that even with google translate I can't understand.
Seems like he is not using very kind words for the BCH guys

He says that the BCH attack is impressive. But it doesn't change anything, because changing constants is not the solution.

He also says we are going to slowly trend towards weekly ma20.

Weekly MA20 is around 4 500$. So that means he is bearish short term?

Well if the price moves down, the moving average will still move a bit as it's a lagging indicator.
So price and MA20 in the weekly chart could probably meet around the $4750 - $5000 area.
As the $5000 level should be tested anyway I see this as a good sign to build a good support in that zone.
So imo we could see 2-3 more weeks of downside. If we consolidate then or see a strong bounce like the other 4 times before this year needs to be seen.

We are still parabolic, I don't understand the pessimism until we break below $5000. $5500 was a perfect bounce off the parabolic curve. We could still be at $10k by Jan 1 2018. I am not thinking downturn in the market for more than 5-9 days unless we go below $5k, then I am bearish for Bitcoin near term.

It's still very possible to make it above $10k by new year "while" breaking $5k beforehand, don't you think?

My chart says $5k is below the parabolic growth curve at this point. While the price has dipped below that parabola shortly in the past two years I am not sure we will see a correction like that at this point. All other dips have been driven by negative news events or attacks whether it be the first Bitcoin cash attack, the chinese ban or the last BCH attack. So we have to have something else push the price lower.

I almost feel like these events have all been created to shake out people and take their coins as they are forced to buy back later at a higher price. Could we see one more forced shakeout, maybe. What would that shakeout be?  Hasn't all Bitcoin Fudsters blown their load already? I just don't see anything that is an obvious attack vector that hasn't been tried already.

I guess that is the definition of a black swan, but what could a black swan be for the next shakeout? If there is no shakeout event, then no we don't go to $5k, if there is a shakeout event I still think we barely break below $5500 before surging up and away.

[Denker]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.

[explorer]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

[img crayon meltdown[/img]

Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.

cAPSLOCK nailed it.

[windjc]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

[img crayon meltdown[/img]

Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.

cAPSLOCK nailed it.

His calls also SUCK!  Where are our $4800 coins? Lol. Amateur hour in here. That’s why this is a master Luc thread.

[hicaribou]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.

Damn, based on that picure it looks like that i dont belong here.
Just want to drop this :

[birr]

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

[isov]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

[img crayon meltdown[/img]

Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.

cAPSLOCK nailed it.

His calls also SUCK!  Where are our $4800 coins? Lol. Amateur hour in here. That’s why this is a master Luc thread.

+1
Would also be cool if someone capable of understanding russian would translate the new vanga posts. Translate only helps so much.

[STT]

Theres something to be said for simplicity especially in conclusions or statements for an audience.   The chart shows multiple frames of analysis which is confusing at best and possibly contradictory.  I find the best take is to note simple structures or sequences which may reoccur as part of a trend upwards

The BTC price nearly halved in the lead up to that first fork, taking that as a Fibonacci sequence probably has relevance even now so 423.6% of the decline from 3,000 peak places 6523 as a bullish point to hold.  3,000 itself was the bottom to September prices, the more easily observable the figure the greater the number of people likely to hold it significant I think.  So overly complex conclusions is probably self defeating especially if we have global trading and various national currencies not just dollars

[windjc]

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.

Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.

Damn, based on that picure it looks like that i dont belong here.
Just want to drop this :

LOL. That made me laugh.

[podyx]

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

Anybody know what he said?

[itod]

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

Anybody know what he said?

More philosophical stuff than market expectations. "Honey badger don't care" like in English, mostly regarding BCH attack on Bitcoin, emphasizing how dangerous it was and how easily it was successfully pushed aside. Masterluc is obviously not for big blocks.

[neilol-real]

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."

[Denker]

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."

Let's see if he will be right or not. Still some way to go.
When we reach $10k it will be very important to see how the markets reacts.
Big profit taking and correction or not??!!

[ragnar0k]

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."

Let's see if he will be right or not. Still some way to go.
When we reach $10k it will be very important to see how the markets reacts.
Big profit taking and correction or not??!!

Seems like he thinks more on a general level, he is not very concerned with dips, just major retracements (>50%). My understanding is that he expects a >60% retracement once we reach 20k before we go to 100k