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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923448 times)
Denker
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September 07, 2017, 08:24:20 AM
 #5181

Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

There is nothing wrong with diversifying your crypto portfolio. Stop generalizing legitimate inventions and p&d/shitcoins. But you are correct that the majority of your portfolio should be in BTC (70%)

99% of shitcoins are straight up scams! And 98% of highly centralized! Do you know how easy it would be for governments to crack them down in a second, or to corrupt and control them??!!!
So diversifying in scams who are easy targets for the incumbents would be extremely dumb!
Trade shitcoins to make more cash or more BTC and you should be fine!!!
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September 07, 2017, 08:39:16 AM
 #5182

Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

There is nothing wrong with diversifying your crypto portfolio. Stop generalizing legitimate inventions and p&d/shitcoins. But you are correct that the majority of your portfolio should be in BTC (70%)

99% of shitcoins are straight up scams! And 98% of highly centralized! Do you know how easy it would be for governments to crack them down in a second, or to corrupt and control them??!!!
So diversifying in scams who are easy targets for the incumbents would be extremely dumb!
Trade shitcoins to make more cash or more BTC and you should be fine!!!

You have 4 ways to get more BTC (or lose your BTC):
  • Buy with cash
  • Play the BTC/Fiat market
  • Play the BTC/Altcoin market
  • Play your BTC on a casino

I don't see what's your issue with the portfolio diversification.
But peoples must be ready, if BTC really rocket to 10-15k soon, nobody know how will react the altcoin markets.

Denker
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September 07, 2017, 09:00:33 AM
 #5183

Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

There is nothing wrong with diversifying your crypto portfolio. Stop generalizing legitimate inventions and p&d/shitcoins. But you are correct that the majority of your portfolio should be in BTC (70%)

99% of shitcoins are straight up scams! And 98% of highly centralized! Do you know how easy it would be for governments to crack them down in a second, or to corrupt and control them??!!!
So diversifying in scams who are easy targets for the incumbents would be extremely dumb!
Trade shitcoins to make more cash or more BTC and you should be fine!!!

You have 4 ways to get more BTC (or lose your BTC):
  • Buy with cash
  • Play the BTC/Fiat market
  • Play the BTC/Altcoin market
  • Play your BTC on a casino

I don't see what's your issue with the portfolio diversification.
But peoples must be ready, if BTC really rocket to 10-15k soon, nobody know how will react the altcoin markets.

I explained why shouldn't diverse into altcoins for long term! They can be cracked down easily as they generally are centralized. Example? You wanna take down Ethereum? Just get rid off Vitalik and you're done! Without Vitalik Ethereum is nothing! Kill him, put him in jail, let him disappear. Very simple. Ethereum would collapse in a matter of seconds! With 98% of other altcoins it's the same. Or you threaten the heads of those alts to implement any shit that would destroy any privacy and financial freedom. Easy to do with mostly all of them!
With Bitcoin this is mostly impossible. Even if they put all the guys from Blockstream in jail. Bitcoin is having over a thousands devs worldwide, many of them unknown. Bitcoin Core 0.15 has more than 120+ contributors!! You can not crack down Bitcoin so easy anymore. And you would have to do it in a smart way. From outside it's almost impossible right now. That's why they try from the inside. And still they fail and Bitcoin is getting stronger and stronger after each attack.
This is what you have to understand. And then you wouldn't diverse into 99% of the alts!
Litecoin, Monero may be options. But that's mostly it.
veleten
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September 07, 2017, 09:40:31 AM
 #5184

Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

There is nothing wrong with diversifying your crypto portfolio. Stop generalizing legitimate inventions and p&d/shitcoins. But you are correct that the majority of your portfolio should be in BTC (70%)

99% of shitcoins are straight up scams! And 98% of highly centralized! Do you know how easy it would be for governments to crack them down in a second, or to corrupt and control them??!!!
So diversifying in scams who are easy targets for the incumbents would be extremely dumb!
Trade shitcoins to make more cash or more BTC and you should be fine!!!

You have 4 ways to get more BTC (or lose your BTC):
  • Buy with cash
  • Play the BTC/Fiat market
  • Play the BTC/Altcoin market
  • Play your BTC on a casino

I don't see what's your issue with the portfolio diversification.
But peoples must be ready, if BTC really rocket to 10-15k soon, nobody know how will react the altcoin markets.

there is one more relatively easy way to get more BTC
it is investing into online casino's bankroll
unlike gambling,it is almost risk free (if you don't invest into obvious scams,of course)
there are at least six top casinos that allow investments in their bankroll and most of the investments yield 15-30% annual interest

Proceed
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September 07, 2017, 09:53:30 AM
 #5185

Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

There is nothing wrong with diversifying your crypto portfolio. Stop generalizing legitimate inventions and p&d/shitcoins. But you are correct that the majority of your portfolio should be in BTC (70%)

I do not agree with you. The portfolio should not be 70% of BTC.
Many coins will also grow well. Etherium, a very good technology with smart contracts, it must be at least 20%.

Etherium 20%
Bitcoin 30%
Litecoin 20%
-----------
A total of 70%.


The remaining 30% is a altcoins.
jekjekman
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September 07, 2017, 10:18:46 AM
 #5186

Holding Bitcoin is still a good investment after all that ICO's flood that is happening right now in cryptocurrency scene because so much people tend to invest their Fiat moneys in ICO's that most are scam and will not survive that long but if they just invested and trust the potential of bitcoin then they will really become rich.

The price of bitcoin last year was almost x9 now with the currenct price of it, I know that there is a lot of altcoins that multiple a lot compare to bitcoin but it is up to the investors if they really want to do the fast and risky process or trust bitcoin and be headache free.
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September 07, 2017, 10:22:55 AM
 #5187

This is where human greed and impatience comes into play!
Many people will have sold probably some significant portion of their BTC stash when it hits 15k, 20k, 25k, 50k and 100k.

Paper gains help no one. I spent a bit around the $1000 mark. I'd been sitting doing nothing with it and felt like it was time BTC financed some actual enjoyment. Am I desperately embittered? Nah. It was free profit that was spent and it provided a high quality time.

I wouldn't spend significant amounts on depreciating tat, but equally there's no point in leaving a vast fortune to a cat protection home after living your final years in one rented room wearing carrier bags on your feet.

If it fulfils its potential it'll continue to appreciate forever. None of us will be here forever.

azguard
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September 07, 2017, 11:01:59 AM
 #5188

$15k Bitcoin is only 3.5X from where we are today, it is a complete forgone conclusion that BTC will hit $15k without a 50% pullback, it is written in stone. It is going to happen easily.

3.5X Bitcoin also puts the price at 1/4 AAPL stock valuation, a paltry and pathetic valuation. Ask yourself which will have a larger impact on the planet Earth, AAPL Corp. or Bitcoin? Anyone that has a clue knows that Bitcoin is becoming the world's store of value, AAPL one day will be a fragmented dream torn apart by anti-trust and corruption.

What does stop a growing exponentially $200 Billion dollar bitcoin train?

As the valuation grows the more it becomes the store of value everyone is seeking. It is the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy. Bitcoin will hit $1 trillion before it has any serious pause, then back down to $500 billion before launching itself into the permanent history of the entire planet. Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

Very optimistic prediction. Its possible but think that is hard for price to go that much, how at this current price. I not saying that i wouldnt like this to happen but realistically think that price between 7-10k is quite possible for this years end and first half of next year.



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Denker
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September 07, 2017, 11:34:59 AM
 #5189

This is where human greed and impatience comes into play!
Many people will have sold probably some significant portion of their BTC stash when it hits 15k, 20k, 25k, 50k and 100k.

Paper gains help no one
. I spent a bit around the $1000 mark. I'd been sitting doing nothing with it and felt like it was time BTC financed some actual enjoyment. Am I desperately embittered? Nah. It was free profit that was spent and it provided a high quality time.

I wouldn't spend significant amounts on depreciating tat, but equally there's no point in leaving a vast fortune to a cat protection home after living your final years in one rented room wearing carrier bags on your feet.

If it fulfils its potential it'll continue to appreciate forever. None of us will be here forever.


Well the average dummy in that space just wants money.You have to admit that! We, the ones who really are here because of something that hasn't been here before and could be a completely gamechanger are a small minority. Just try to speak with people who entered this space just a few weeks ago, they mostly know nothing about Bitcoin, why it was created and what it benefits are.
Someone from Korea told me, all these traders there are dumb as hell. They know nothing about cryptos or Bitcoin.Their lack of understanding even the basics is huge!!! For them the whole space is just a new casino!
DieJohnny
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September 07, 2017, 12:16:57 PM
 #5190

$15k Bitcoin is only 3.5X from where we are today, it is a complete forgone conclusion that BTC will hit $15k without a 50% pullback, it is written in stone. It is going to happen easily.

3.5X Bitcoin also puts the price at 1/4 AAPL stock valuation, a paltry and pathetic valuation. Ask yourself which will have a larger impact on the planet Earth, AAPL Corp. or Bitcoin? Anyone that has a clue knows that Bitcoin is becoming the world's store of value, AAPL one day will be a fragmented dream torn apart by anti-trust and corruption.

What does stop a growing exponentially $200 Billion dollar bitcoin train?

As the valuation grows the more it becomes the store of value everyone is seeking. It is the ultimate self-fulfilling prophecy. Bitcoin will hit $1 trillion before it has any serious pause, then back down to $500 billion before launching itself into the permanent history of the entire planet. Yes Bitcoin will be worth so much that every single person on this thread will be wealthy if only they can hold long enough. My guess is half of you will lose your chance chasing alt-coin wet dreams or buying a sports car with your precious BTC.

Very optimistic prediction. Its possible but think that is hard for price to go that much, how at this current price. I not saying that i wouldnt like this to happen but realistically think that price between 7-10k is quite possible for this years end and first half of next year.

Timeline is only relevant for people in massive debt, have a mortal disease, or are desperate for a social status upgrade. This year will most certainly see $6k, next year could be unprecedented, it might take a bit longer. Just accumulate.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
machouno
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September 07, 2017, 02:07:22 PM
 #5191

Hi there

I just registered to this forum in order to participate to this conversation which is surprisingly consistent ater 260 pages of posts Smiley

I would like to ask your opinion about the following. Having entered the market recently (about 3 months), I'm actually wondering if it is really time for accumulating. It seems to me that the entire crypto market is in a bubble, and that most of alt coins are highly overrated.

Therefore I'm really wondering if/when the bubble will pop, and if it happens then it would seem the right moment to really accumulate.

Very curious about your thoughts !
oda.krell
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September 07, 2017, 02:21:27 PM
 #5192

Paper gains help no one. I spent a bit around the $1000 mark. I'd been sitting doing nothing with it and felt like it was time BTC financed some actual enjoyment. Am I desperately embittered? Nah. It was free profit that was spent and it provided a high quality time.

I wouldn't spend significant amounts on depreciating tat, but equally there's no point in leaving a vast fortune to a cat protection home after living your final years in one rented room wearing carrier bags on your feet.

If it fulfils its potential it'll continue to appreciate forever. None of us will be here forever.


I'd be surprised if quite a few people in here didn't believe exactly that. See:

@article{botstein2017cryonics,
  title={Cryonics, Anti-aging and Transhumanism: Savviness and Naivety in the Cryptosphere},
  author={Botstein, Patrick and Dong, Wei},
  year={2017},
}

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure.
Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
ssmc2
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September 07, 2017, 02:35:29 PM
 #5193

Wow, nice work cluttering up this thread
DieJohnny
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September 09, 2017, 03:11:46 AM
 #5194

Hi there

I just registered to this forum in order to participate to this conversation which is surprisingly consistent ater 260 pages of posts Smiley

I would like to ask your opinion about the following. Having entered the market recently (about 3 months), I'm actually wondering if it is really time for accumulating. It seems to me that the entire crypto market is in a bubble, and that most of alt coins are highly overrated.

Therefore I'm really wondering if/when the bubble will pop, and if it happens then it would seem the right moment to really accumulate.

Very curious about your thoughts !

I completely understand your view. I frankly am not sure if I were new to crypto if I would heavily invest after this amazing 18 month run. But I do think you need to have investments in crypto regardless. Bear markets in the grander scheme of things do not last very long. It is entirely possible that you see a correction as much as 75% on any crypto, however, for the top 10 coins I think that correction only last 6 months max before you return to profitability.

What I am doing and have done is diversifed the percentage of my portfolio into Crypto that I could personally tolerate knowing I was in it for the long haul (5 years), 30% of my crypto holdings are typically in some alt or another. Then buy monthly at those same ratios what I could afford. Continue for 5 years and retire. I figure I have a couple more years before I retire as I have been doing this for three years.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
Ejanend
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September 09, 2017, 03:44:24 PM
 #5195

Holding Bitcoin is still a good investment after all that ICO's flood that is happening right now in cryptocurrency scene because so much people tend to invest their Fiat moneys in ICO's that most are scam and will not survive that long but if they just invested and trust the potential of bitcoin then they will really become rich.

The price of bitcoin last year was almost x9 now with the currenct price of it, I know that there is a lot of altcoins that multiple a lot compare to bitcoin but it is up to the investors if they really want to do the fast and risky process or trust bitcoin and be headache free.
Well it is good to see such well knowledge people in the forum you really elaborated well. A lot of thing happened in the bitcoin and a lot of things are going to be happen it is still early to say something finally I am expecting it to move faster as it is moving yet. It is the pump season for bitcoin and it is increasing a lot so it is bad to make some negative analysis about bitcoin even when it is increasing more and more.

   

 
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 09, 2017, 07:05:26 PM
 #5196

Hi there

I just registered to this forum in order to participate to this conversation which is surprisingly consistent ater 260 pages of posts Smiley

I would like to ask your opinion about the following. Having entered the market recently (about 3 months), I'm actually wondering if it is really time for accumulating. It seems to me that the entire crypto market is in a bubble, and that most of alt coins are highly overrated.

Therefore I'm really wondering if/when the bubble will pop, and if it happens then it would seem the right moment to really accumulate.

Very curious about your thoughts !

I completely understand your view. I frankly am not sure if I were new to crypto if I would heavily invest after this amazing 18 month run. But I do think you need to have investments in crypto regardless. Bear markets in the grander scheme of things do not last very long. It is entirely possible that you see a correction as much as 75% on any crypto, however, for the top 10 coins I think that correction only last 6 months max before you return to profitability.

What I am doing and have done is diversifed the percentage of my portfolio into Crypto that I could personally tolerate knowing I was in it for the long haul (5 years), 30% of my crypto holdings are typically in some alt or another. Then buy monthly at those same ratios what I could afford. Continue for 5 years and retire. I figure I have a couple more years before I retire as I have been doing this for three years.


You are likely to come to faulty and inaccurate conclusions if you amorphously lump your investment in "crypto" and fail to distinguish your analysis of bitcoin as compared to the other pump and dumps that are plentiful out there and having coattail effects with bitcoin and even producing some of their own dynamics that can fuck around with being able to determining exactly what is going on in bitcoin proper.

I don't know what the fuck you are talking about when you try to say bear market or bull market in terms of crypto generally, because the pump and dump effect of a lot of the crap-ass various ICOs on bitcoin is a relatively new phenomenon in terms of proportions, and sure we should attempt to understand some of this but putting too much emphasis on various cryptos is like trying to suggest that the tail is wagging the dog, and is a faulty perspective.

On the other hand, if you isolate your analysis to bitcoin rather than lumping in a bunch of bullshit into it, then yeah, we can see bitcoin in a bullish market since late 2015 - however, we could not really be sure that we were in a bullish market until about May 2016, when we saw BTC prices break above $500 and stay there for good.  So bitcoin has been in a bullish market, ever since late 2015 and seems to be inclined to stay in a bullish market for the near future - at least for the next 6 months or so.... of course we can watch whether bitcoin stays in a bullish market, and sometimes it can take 6 months or more to verify if either the tide has turned (whether that is flattening out or reversing), which like I already suggested does not seem too likely at that present time and under the present conditions.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
Bitcoinaire
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September 09, 2017, 09:48:12 PM
 #5197

He has a new post and chart.

'About China. First, ICO is not bitcoin. Secondly, even if they take up the bitcoin of the stock exchange again, this is not 2013 and China is no longer a cake. If in 2013 China dragged the whole world market of bitcoins to heaven, now China reluctantly drags itself after the world.

Therefore, if it is true that they want to cover something there, then this will not be such a catastrophic event as in 2013. I think the maximum, what can be expected is another correction for the weekly ma20 (now at the level of 2,900 and is fairly cheerfully growing).

In this case it is very important not to overlap with the previous weekly maximum of $ 2980 from June 12 of this year. In the sense of not reaching this level with correction. Then the overall super-bullish picture will not spoil.

And by the way, looking at the previous graph - the longer we trample on the current levels, the higher will be the maximum, because. the historical logarithmic trend is upward and with time both support and resistance are getting higher.'



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September 10, 2017, 01:26:06 AM
 #5198

He has a new post and chart.
Who has?
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September 10, 2017, 02:53:16 AM
 #5199


OP, aka MasterLuc, aka Lucifer, aka Bitcoin Vanga, aka PentarhUdi

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
windjc
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September 10, 2017, 03:56:12 AM
 #5200

He has a new post and chart.

'About China. First, ICO is not bitcoin. Secondly, even if they take up the bitcoin of the stock exchange again, this is not 2013 and China is no longer a cake. If in 2013 China dragged the whole world market of bitcoins to heaven, now China reluctantly drags itself after the world.

Therefore, if it is true that they want to cover something there, then this will not be such a catastrophic event as in 2013. I think the maximum, what can be expected is another correction for the weekly ma20 (now at the level of 2,900 and is fairly cheerfully growing).

In this case it is very important not to overlap with the previous weekly maximum of $ 2980 from June 12 of this year. In the sense of not reaching this level with correction. Then the overall super-bullish picture will not spoil.

And by the way, looking at the previous graph - the longer we trample on the current levels, the higher will be the maximum, because. the historical logarithmic trend is upward and with time both support and resistance are getting higher.'





Where is the chart? Smiley
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