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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919133 times)
BitcoinNewsMagazine
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November 04, 2015, 10:04:34 PM
 #4181

So far just a 50% correction from 10/31 $303 to 11/4 $502:



Price already rebound to $436 while posting this.

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ssmc2
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November 04, 2015, 10:18:54 PM
 #4182

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.

Anyway, this is above my skillz. I waited this great 3, it comes suddenly. I quit. Bye guys. Analysis ended.

Epic end to an epic thread.


Of three epic threads only one is left Angry.

The three threads:
Goomboos Journal https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0
This thread.
Third?

Gotta be PnF TA https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1064374.0
podyx
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November 04, 2015, 10:24:17 PM
 #4183

chessnut's EW analysis too
Joerii
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November 04, 2015, 10:33:35 PM
 #4184

Thanks Master.

Sad to see the  best thread on this forum come to a close though.

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uki
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November 04, 2015, 10:50:49 PM
 #4185

Here comes the sanity... at $400 already.

Like an LSD trip wearing off.

Right now we're actually still up compared to yesterday. I wonder if we're going to stabilise around $400 or if we'll drop into the $300 range. I don't think we'll necessarily drop into the $200 range again though, at least I hope so Wink

I think we shouldn't go below $350 which was the top target of this rally for me. Right now that should be a solid support, if we are pushed below $400. Good to see a correction, because the pace of recent events was unsustainable and hard to explain by any fundamental news or TA.

@luc: sad to see you go, although I am not big fan of EW, nevertheless the quality of the posts in this thread deserves to keep it alive!

this space is intentionally left blank
mrbrt
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November 04, 2015, 10:55:04 PM
 #4186

Anyone find it odd that there is a $60 USD difference between bitstamp and the chinese exchanges (okcoin, huobi)?
Zarathustra
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November 04, 2015, 10:55:56 PM
 #4187

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.

Anyway, this is above my skillz. I waited this great 3, it comes suddenly. I quit. Bye guys. Analysis ended.

Epic end to an epic thread.


Of three epic threads only one is left Angry.

The three threads:
Goomboos Journal https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.0
This thread.
Third?

The thread with the 1'527'282 views.
hdbuck
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November 04, 2015, 11:00:23 PM
Last edit: November 05, 2015, 07:18:44 AM by hdbuck
 #4188

thx master!
windjc
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November 04, 2015, 11:08:24 PM
 #4189

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.


Can someone translate this for me? Thx.
Miz4r
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November 04, 2015, 11:47:27 PM
 #4190

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.


Can someone translate this for me? Thx.

You understand EW theory I presume? Masterluc is just saying that we're still only in local wave 3 since 240, and that he expected to see a corrective wave 4 much earlier. That's why he sold his coins at 320-360 or something around there.

I don't really understand why this is a reason for masterluc to end his analysis though. So wave 3 was bigger than anticipated, and wave 4 seems to be underway right now. Why is this such a problem? You can't correctly predict and ride every single wave out there, this one was too big and unexpected also for me and I've been hanging on all the way in November 2013. Chinese buyers are just something else lol.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
Tzupy
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November 05, 2015, 12:10:26 AM
 #4191

I'm sorry to hear that masterluc enters a silence phase, I hope my "polluting" of his thread, especially during these last days, wasn't among the causes.

About the market, I think we need to form a bullish double bottom before going up, so need to test support again (happening as I write this... Grin).
At a larger time frame, this exciting evolution may fit into the "THE wave B" scenario, of an accelerated wave C that we just entered.
But it depends how much fresh fiat is going to hit the exchanges during the next weeks, if China dries up, then it's a good case for wave C.
If price recovers and stays close to 500$, then this may have been the wave 1 (and beginning of 2) of a new bubble.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
heropzy
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November 05, 2015, 12:10:37 AM
 #4192

Don't quit, Luc. We missed you Cheesy Cheesy
klee
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November 05, 2015, 12:10:50 AM
 #4193

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.


Can someone translate this for me? Thx.

You understand EW theory I presume? Masterluc is just saying that we're still only in local wave 3 since 240, and that he expected to see a corrective wave 4 much earlier. That's why he sold his coins at 320-360 or something around there.

I don't really understand why this is a reason for masterluc to end his analysis though. So wave 3 was bigger than anticipated, and wave 4 seems to be underway right now. Why is this such a problem? You can't correctly predict and ride every single wave out there, this one was too big and unexpected also for me and I've been hanging on all the way in November 2013. Chinese buyers are just something else lol.
Is there an objective way to count the waves? Or is it up to anyone's interpretation?
infofront
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November 05, 2015, 12:25:24 AM
 #4194

Of course it may pop at some point, then recover, but there wasn't even 4rd wave since 240. All this is the local 3rd.


Can someone translate this for me? Thx.

You understand EW theory I presume? Masterluc is just saying that we're still only in local wave 3 since 240, and that he expected to see a corrective wave 4 much earlier. That's why he sold his coins at 320-360 or something around there.

I don't really understand why this is a reason for masterluc to end his analysis though. So wave 3 was bigger than anticipated, and wave 4 seems to be underway right now. Why is this such a problem? You can't correctly predict and ride every single wave out there, this one was too big and unexpected also for me and I've been hanging on all the way in November 2013. Chinese buyers are just something else lol.
Is there an objective way to count the waves? Or is it up to anyone's interpretation?

Both. There are guidelines, but as with anything else, the data can be interpreted in multiple ways. That's why, given the same circumstances, you can see vastly different EW analyses.
pontikis13
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November 05, 2015, 12:46:17 AM
 #4195

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol
Morecoin Freeman
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November 05, 2015, 01:08:06 AM
 #4196

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol
I was in a similar situation while trading alt coins back in 2013-2014.
Immediately following up my best trades with multiple terrible ones, wasting my profit.

I really liked this advice:
When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.
Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.

Ask the stranger he knows who you really are.
pontikis13
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November 05, 2015, 01:25:39 AM
 #4197

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol
I was in a similar situation while trading alt coins back in 2013-2014.
Immediately following up my best trades with multiple terrible ones, wasting my profit.

I really liked this advice:
When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.
Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.


Thats great advice. Thanks. The past is the past. I'm going to learn from it and move forward.
DieJohnny
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November 05, 2015, 01:28:50 AM
 #4198

I had sold every last coin I owned at 500. After masterluc announced that analysis ended I was finally convinced that this is the next bubble and bought back in at 470.
Panic sold at 415. Bought back in at 420. Then panic sold 392.  All in all a horrible way to end the day lol
I was in a similar situation while trading alt coins back in 2013-2014.
Immediately following up my best trades with multiple terrible ones, wasting my profit.

I really liked this advice:
When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next.
Because in the end that is what I did to improve. I would turn off my computer and go read a book in the sun.
Really starting to appreciate my profits instead of being in such a hurry to make more all the time.

Realizing there will be plenty of great opportunities down the road brought me happy times.

I suck at trading these posts help me remember why I don't do it anymore... i am certain there is a frame of mind perfectly suited for trading, just not mine.

Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
gentlemand
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November 05, 2015, 01:37:52 AM
 #4199


I suck at trading these posts help me remember why I don't do it anymore... i am certain there is a frame of mind perfectly suited for trading, just not mine.

The most successful traders are those who are not quite of this world. And I wonder how much the outrageous successes have burnt through before they became financial ice men or women. As one Hollywood exec said, if they'd greenlit all the films they'd said no to and blew off the ones they said yes to they'd probably have ended up in the exact same position.

Tmdz
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November 05, 2015, 02:36:49 AM
 #4200

It requires a strong gut to put up with the trading market, the worst thing to do is panic trade.  BTC Will always go up and receive boom and busts, make a plan and do some smart trades.  Make a solid trade or 2 but if after that trade some losses follow don't worry about it, relax and things might bounce the next day.  I experienced today was a sharp decline to 404 then it started trading up quickly, got some at 417 as I thought it will probably raise to higher levels later.  Then it dropped to 370 or so and everyone started going nuts losing their minds like this was it btc was doomed.  Meh I held and now prices are at 430 something, likely to rise to some nicer levels later on.  The big thing is don't panic and.. don't trade if your emotions start messing with you.
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