Analysis

[birr]

He has a new post and chart.

Who has?

OP, aka MasterLuc, aka Lucifer, aka Bitcoin Vanga, aka PentarhUdi

Request that you guys include links.  It's frustrating when I read "he has a new post" or "he has a new chart."

* For clear communications, it helps to identify subject.  Pronouns lacking antecedent are a very common problem in written communications.  This is a heads up for future use, not just on this thread.
* If you want to post a picture of MasterLuc's latest chart, or copy and paste the text of MaterLuc's new post (in translation), that's great; but please, include a link.

[1715060885]

1715060885

[ft73]

Masterluc already told his opinion.

Watch for Weekly SMA20.

[Millionero]

MasterLuc/Bitcoin Vanga mentions MA20 in a couple of recent posts.
One from Sept 8 https://vk.com/wall-130254204_2504
where he says
I think the maximum, what can be expected is another correction for the weekly ma20 (now at the level of 2,900 and is fairly cheerfully growing).
In this case it is very important not to overlap with the previous weekly maximum of $ 2980 from June 12 of this year. In the sense of not reaching this level with correction. Then the overall super-bullish picture will not spoil.
And Sept 11 https://vk.com/wall-130254204_2527
Yes. Closed clearly under the weekly BB. Well. Again in the area of ​​the week ma20 is very likely a walk: /

But it loses something in translation, to say the least.  What does that last bit about a "walk" mean?

"A promised picture. It broke the logarithmic line and "spreads" along it. Something is waiting. I do not observe special divergences. Persistently crawl to the goal."

I can't find that chart.  When I go to https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/ the latest chart I see is from Aug 12.  Is it because I don't have a tradingview account?

[STT]

Decent size fall, this is from Chinese news from a couple days ago I guess.   So its reset the action for this month and last but is retaining the highs of July.   

Seems like ok looking action on 15m with spike down and then a base above that, 21000 CNY or above is a good start.  USD looks maybe more negative, lost a positive long term trend at 4000 which will take a while to recover I think and 3600 also a level to watch for which way a tide is turning.  Rise and confirmation above 3600 would be a start

[snowdropfore]

BTCC close it's exchange tonight . hope we are not going back just like 2013 ,don't turn the bull into bear market, i want to see $15000. i do not want to see $1500.

[RAJSALLIN]

new post from the master. translated with google

"There would be a Fiat, where from here (3,370) to 3,000 in the short term would go with the goal of daylight saving. Bounce will be on it"

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

[pisston]

new post from the master. translated with google

"There would be a Fiat, where from here (3,370) to 3,000 in the short term would go with the goal of daylight saving. Bounce will be on it"

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

so the autumn periods have already begun. I thought the opposite, Bitcoin should rise in price. I understand your words, because every year in the summer when there is a holiday period, Bitcoin always began to fluctuate in its price, But this pair should already be over. A.

[Pruden]

What did he mean by daylight savings? Is it about the date when the Summer Time ends (around 1 November)? What about it?

[romani245]

What did he mean by daylight savings? Is it about the date when the Summer Time ends (around 1 November)? What about it?

I think it was a bad translation. My basic takeaway: Low $3000s (down to $3000) is buy support. Below this level (and below the weekly 20MA) would be a major overlap. As an aside, such an overlap would be bearish from the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory. If $3000 holds, the bullish picture remains ($40,000+ by 2019), and this would just be considered another healthy correction.

Unfortunately, this sets up a "darkest before dawn" scenario. Testing the weekly 20MA is healthy. Overlapping is not. In this case, both scenarios are a stone's throw away from one another. It's an extremely binary scenario. One sets off the run to $6000s, the other sets off a prolonged bear market.

[baseke]

new post from the master. translated with google

"There would be a Fiat, where from here (3,370) to 3,000 in the short term would go with the goal of daylight saving. Bounce will be on it"

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

If i had fiat i would buy in from this area 3 370 to 3 000 for a short term with the (exit) target at daily ma 20. The bounce will be right there.  (which is 4000-4100 usd)

[Pruden]

Thank you oh so much.

[Equilux]

What did he mean by daylight savings? Is it about the date when the Summer Time ends (around 1 November)? What about it?

I think it was a bad translation. My basic takeaway: Low $3000s (down to $3000) is buy support. Below this level (and below the weekly 20MA) would be a major overlap. As an aside, such an overlap would be bearish from the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory. If $3000 holds, the bullish picture remains ($40,000+ by 2019), and this would just be considered another healthy correction.

Unfortunately, this sets up a "darkest before dawn" scenario. Testing the weekly 20MA is healthy. Overlapping is not. In this case, both scenarios are a stone's throw away from one another. It's an extremely binary scenario. One sets off the run to $6000s, the other sets off a prolonged bear market.

Thanks for the (I think correct) interpretation of the message from MasterLuc

[Millionero]

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_2504

I think the maximum, what can be expected is another correction for the weekly ma20 (now at the level of 2,900 and is fairly cheerfully growing).
In this case it is very important not to overlap with the previous weekly maximum of $ 2980 from June 12 of this year. In the sense of not reaching this level with correction. Then the overall super-bullish picture will not spoil.

Bounced at 2980.4 on Bitfinex, bounced at 2972 on Stamp.
Almost too good to be true.  Where's the catch?

[machouno]

From https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
Posted 2h ago.

Horrible translation from Google:

Bad news 1. The dive in 2972 ​​intersected with the previous hay of 2980 (September 2). Hence, the correction will be oily.
Bad news 2. After the rebound, we can easily go zigzag at 2300.

Good news 1. It will all bounce back at least 61.2% (4200) in the short term.
Good news 2. The crossing gave me a clue about the end of this seemingly endless wave. And I finally drew the Elliott countdown.
Good news 3. Here the end of the historic triplet is not even visible at all. We are still drawing the top three pink subwaves. And there will be 4 and 5, and pink can be only the first FM. TLDR: Everything is just beginning.

$ 9600 in the post stick - the limit of the historical triple I think was greatly underestimated. After correction, the price can be drowned in this level, but this will be even lower than the middle ...

Technical infa. Bitcoin fell out of love with the triangles-fours and fell in love with the cut-down fives.

https://pp.userapi.com/c841038/v841038144/1fb9b/DU9nE-EfFRo.jpg

(sorry I didn't manage to display the picture, but the timeline is interesting, going around 2019 for the next break)

[Micky25]

I'm wondering if I'm already on the verge of selling my soul to the devil, by listening to the words of a satanist.

[explorer]

From https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
Posted 2h ago.

Horrible translation from Google:

Bad news 1. The dive in 2972 ​​intersected with the previous hay of 2980 (September 2). Hence, the correction will be oily.
Bad news 2. After the rebound, we can easily go zigzag at 2300.

Good news 1. It will all bounce back at least 61.2% (4200) in the short term.
Good news 2. The crossing gave me a clue about the end of this seemingly endless wave. And I finally drew the Elliott countdown.
Good news 3. Here the end of the historic triplet is not even visible at all. We are still drawing the top three pink subwaves. And there will be 4 and 5, and pink can be only the first FM. TLDR: Everything is just beginning.

$ 9600 in the post stick - the limit of the historical triple I think was greatly underestimated. After correction, the price can be drowned in this level, but this will be even lower than the middle ...

Technical infa. Bitcoin fell out of love with the triangles-fours and fell in love with the cut-down fives.



(sorry I didn't manage to display the picture, but the timeline is interesting, going around 2019 for the next break)

Does he always work on a linear chart?

[exstasie]

Does he always work on a linear chart?

I remember from the days of his 2013 "ping pong" chart that yes, he is fond of the linear scale. Here it does not matter, at least to the EW count. After a magnificent wave 5 (as expected), he expects a return to the region of the previous 4th. That is quite a painful correction, given that we would normally expect a Wave 4 to be closer to a 38.2% retracement, rather than 61.8%.

Under normal circumstances, if the Wave 4 went that low, I would expect truncation of the next wave up. But this is Bitcoin, where wave 5s melt your face off.

[Bitcoinaire]

Looks like bad news, we'll have to wait till 2019-2020 for the next bubble. Hopefully he'll be wrong.

Edit to add:

I'm wondering if I'm already on the verge of selling my soul to the devil, by listening to the words of a satanist.

Yeah, odd name to choose, lucif.....

[exstasie]

Looks like bad news, we'll have to wait till 2019-2020 for the next bubble. Hopefully he'll be wrong.

I don't think that's what he's saying. I don't think those arrows correspond to time, but rather the shape of the structure he expects to form. The Wave 3 that he draws is ~ 9 months long, so by Elliott Wave rules, the time taken by Wave 4 should be no more than ~18 months. However, there is no minimum time, so it could be much, much quicker than that. If the zig zag comes to fruition, then I would expect to enter the next Wave 5 (of the primary third) within several months.

[Bitcoinaire]

Looks like bad news, we'll have to wait till 2019-2020 for the next bubble. Hopefully he'll be wrong.

I don't think that's what he's saying. I don't think those arrows correspond to time, but rather the shape of the structure he expects to form. The Wave 3 that he draws is ~ 9 months long, so by Elliott Wave rules, the time taken by Wave 4 should be no more than ~18 months. However, there is no minimum time, so it could be much, much quicker than that. If the zig zag comes to fruition, then I would expect to enter the next Wave 5 (of the primary third) within several months.

Thanks for the clarification!