Analysis

[Herman Hesse]

It is quite interesting...
If we bottomed (even temporarily) at 7600-7900 (depending on which exchange),then:

Vanga/ml>Enky

if we go lower that 7K around here, then
Enky>Vanga/ml

The contest is for a current King-of-the-Hill bitcoin tech analyst.

What is your opinion?
You could write a long one or just mention V>E or E>V, but ONLY short to mid term (four weeks max).
Obviously, longer term things could be different.

Very interesting, indeed... but it depends not only of analysts... or TA.. it depends also on external rumors and news.. if there will be no further news creating FUD (like alleged bitcoin ban in some large and important country) in the next four weeks, i would put my money on Vanga...

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[STT]

I agree on the negative news influence, how much does that news actually matter is another thing.   Just like hype, there is FUD which barely makes any difference to actual prospects.    I never use facebook personally, perhaps Im underestimating that lost exposure but people are still allowed to talk surely

Doesnt any bounce back rely on volume returning which I think means we see a proper recovery post Chinese new year.    Till then we idle and shake off the weak hands who want instant results.   Anyone whose been in crypto prior to 2017 knows the pace of the last year isnt how it always goes, it can certainly take months to iron out.     The other take would be that we decline at the same pace we rose at,   I think theres alot of impatient people in the ranks now and they either have to sit down and wait or leave and till then the price reflects no great trend.       The other thing is that sideways can be a positive, so I wouldnt mind that scenario

[Enjel]

Right on..thanks for the update.
This cracks me up.

Of note: Enky sold and vanga/ml called him out here: "Too bad, yet another tired poker player threw away his cards"

Busted.  

I bet he feels really stupid now, selling out and potentially buying back in cheaper.

Burn

See, I don't get this. Enky wrote that a bearish scenario would involve a break below 7.5k USD. And right above that, BTC bounced massively.

But then he sold when it was like 8.5k - 9k, without waiting. Why didn't he just follow his own (correct) analysis?

[windjc]

Right on..thanks for the update.
This cracks me up.

Of note: Enky sold and vanga/ml called him out here: "Too bad, yet another tired poker player threw away his cards"

Busted.  

I bet he feels really stupid now, selling out and potentially buying back in cheaper.

Burn

See, I don't get this. Enky wrote that a bearish scenario would involve a break below 7.5k USD. And right above that, BTC bounced massively.

But then he sold when it was like 8.5k - 9k, without waiting. Why didn't he just follow his own (correct) analysis?

Emotions

[btcone111]

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

When small participants lose hope (me and you) that's when the real whales will come in and buy.
The market is more driven by these whales than me and you.
GS is starting a crypto trading desk in June I guess that says a lot about the potential direction of crypto market this year.

[btcone111]

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Could someone who speaks russian kindly gives us a better translation than google translate?
Des it mean master think the worst is absolutely over?
thanks,

[Harlot]

If grandma is to be believed, the worst is over.

my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

year(s)-ish, maybe months.  How's that for precision?

The long term charts seems to be pretty solid and intact so far. All this hourly and daily chart really makes most people nervous as they always think about it in the short term. A lot of people here are always thinking of profiting with Bitcoin in a short term which seems to be impossible as it is going on a down trend right now. What they can do is to accumulate more Bitcoin in the process in selling Bitcoin at its high and buying it again at its lower low. Right now we can take advantage of it even with out current investment without putting additional capital.

[Biodom]

Make a screen shot of that graph as ml is now (temporarily?) banned from at least russian version of tradingview.
He says that he does not know why exactly. Maybe some token service term violation or they don't like his ideas [speculative from him].

Re the question of graph interpretation, he posted in comments that he does not have enough info re the structure of 4, but I, personally, don't really care if it is a flat or a hump with 13-14 intermediate top, then retest higher low as long as we are for a longer term ride to 50-100K.

[Toxic2040]

Whats usually the best way to make something more popular?

[mammut]

Whats usually the best way to make something more popular?

Propaganda. Why are you asking?

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

Right on..thanks for the update.
This cracks me up.

Of note: Enky sold and vanga/ml called him out here: "Too bad, yet another tired poker player threw away his cards"

Busted.  

I bet he feels really stupid now, selling out and potentially buying back in cheaper.

Burn

See, I don't get this. Enky wrote that a bearish scenario would involve a break below 7.5k USD. And right above that, BTC bounced massively.

But then he sold when it was like 8.5k - 9k, without waiting. Why didn't he just follow his own (correct) analysis?

I was also a bit surprised, but when it is your money, especially big sums, looks like he just wanted to protect his profits, not to maximize them. I am very surprised that he liquidated all his crypto holdings.

[thefiniteidea]

Good traders are popular because they offer great trading advice... great traders are unheard of because they take their own advice.

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

Make a screen shot of that graph as ml is now (temporarily?) banned from at least russian version of tradingview.
He says that he does not know why exactly. Maybe some token service term violation or they don't like his ideas [speculative from him].

Re the question of graph interpretation, he posted in comments that he does not have enough info re the structure of 4, but I, personally, don't really care if it is a flat or a hump with 13-14 intermediate top, then retest higher low as long as we are for a longer term ride to 50-100K.

Yeah, he was very vague about 4. I am not even sure whether he means that there would be a bottom below 7k, before we go to 50-100k? One would think that being in wave 4 must (?) imply this, but this part is left blank on the picture.

If we just crawl up along the trendline from 7.7k, which I personally consider most likely, there would be no reason to call it 4? Or is this scenario also considered likely my ML? I wish I knew 

[Biodom]

Make a screen shot of that graph as ml is now (temporarily?) banned from at least russian version of tradingview.
He says that he does not know why exactly. Maybe some token service term violation or they don't like his ideas [speculative from him].

Re the question of graph interpretation, he posted in comments that he does not have enough info re the structure of 4, but I, personally, don't really care if it is a flat or a hump with 13-14 intermediate top, then retest higher low as long as we are for a longer term ride to 50-100K.

Yeah, he was very vague about 4. I am not even sure whether he means that there would be a bottom below 7k, before we go to 50-100k? One would think that being in wave 4 must (?) imply this, but this part is left blank on the picture.

If we just crawl up along the trendline from 7.7k, which I personally consider most likely, there would be no reason to call it 4? Or is this scenario also considered likely my ML? I wish I knew 

We are deep in 4 already (at the minimum).
He indicated the lows of 4 with a red spot (so far on the money).
From his perspective the unknown is the structure of 4 as it transitions to 5.
You can look at 2013 (from 250-260 correction) for a possible structure, but it could be something else entirely.

My (not ml) macro take on this is as follows:

PTB made a decision to participate in crypto (Davos showed it), but too much crypto is in the hands of lower class (in their opinion) investors, so they try to remove crypto from weak hands into their hands using propaganda, old school people like Krugman and Roubini, denying credit card purchases, etc.

Who do you think rely more on credit cards to purchase btc? No need to even answer. Hence they manufactured a spike and a small (so far) crash. They did the same with the Internet, then loaded on gen 2 internet while denying lower 95% a chance to participate in earlier rounds where 90% of appreciation in FB was made, for example. Amazon was pushed from 100 to 5, then folks like Bill Miller came in and scooped it cheap, while CNBC was lamenting the "Internet crash".

[exstasie]

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

[explorer]

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

 $45 was a spike that disappeared pretty fast.  We didn't begin recovering from April 2013 until $63 at the end of June.  And 3 months after that, Silk Road and BOOM.

[Afrikoin]

Looking at his chart,

1. wave 4 cannot be as shallow as he suggests

2. Likely suggesting sub $6k price

[podyx]

Looking at his chart,

1. wave 4 cannot be as shallow as he suggests

2. Likely suggesting sub $6k price

Why?

[Biodom]

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it.