Analysis

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

Not good news, but I am frankly most intrigued by the Google translate "fucking babies"  - anybody fluent in Russian here to help please?

Actually that's not Russian, but Ukrainian famous phrase literally meaning "Such [fucking] shit, kids".

Thanks!

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[Tzupy]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

[AR_fan]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

[megadeth]

Sad to see one of the best permabears Tzupy turn bull.

[doc12]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

Almost every "trader" is babbling the same shit like you, so I assume you are wrong -> Too many bears -> bullish

[RejectedBanana]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

The scenario Tzupy presented resembles the mid-2013 correction in the middle of the bull run from $5 to $1k.

The scenario you are presenting resembles the 2014 capitulation from $1k to $100.

Either scenario is probable. Both are wrong because history may rhyme but doesn't repeat.

Schrodinger's TA.

There is a big difference between 2013/2014 and today. There are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude more of everything: exchanges, market cap, media, alts, regulation, whales, fools.

[windjc]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

And why the FUCK should we listen to you?

Tzupy has credibility. Years of calls. What the fuck do you have?

[windjc]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

The scenario Tzupy presented resembles the mid-2013 correction in the middle of the bull run from $5 to $1k.

The scenario you are presenting resembles the 2014 capitulation from $1k to $100.

Either scenario is probable. Both are wrong because history may rhyme but doesn't repeat.

Schrodinger's TA.

There is a big difference between 2013/2014 and today. There are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude more of everything: exchanges, market cap, media, alts, regulation, whales, fools.

I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.

Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.

[gentlemand]

Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.

Would that change in sentiment be down to the comparable slow motion of the rise? I remember November 2013 being pure euphoria, but it was so incredibly rapid that there's no way the same ejaculations could've been kept up during this run.

Perhaps that misplaced euphoria was replaced by a misplaced sense of quiet confidence. Both are pretty wrongheaded.

2014 is the ghost that haunts everyone. My personal feel is that it was so extreme that something comparable won't come around again until the ultra bubble has been and gone and we're nowhere near that.

This rise was a significant gurgling, but not the monstrous fart that will reverberate around the globe some day.

[uslfd]

Hate to say but one of the best gauges has always been the contrarian sentiment indicator.
I personally don't feel desperation in btc community. Most people are still hopeful this is going to be short correction and things would "get back to normal" fairly soon.
The more people think like this, the more it WON'T turn out to be the case...........

Just my thoughts....

[600watt]

I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.

Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.

i also have the feeling that the chart movements are slowing down so much, that it is hard to grasp it. funny though that there are people who think movements are speeding up.

[AR_fan]

whats nice is that time will show who's right

in 1 week we'll literally be around 5k$

and this is isn't based on TA or some other dubious wave analysis, this is coming right from the temple of Apollo

[Micky25]

whats nice is that time will show who's right

in 1 week we'll literally be around 5k$

and this is isn't based on TA or some other dubious wave analysis, this is coming right from the temple of Apollo

The 'literally' in your sentence makes me believe you're wrong.

[thefiniteidea]

whats nice is that time will show who's right

in 1 week we'll literally be around 5k$

and this is isn't based on TA or some other dubious wave analysis, this is coming right from the temple of Apollo

The 'literally' in your sentence makes me believe you're wrong.

I would normally agree, but this person may actually be right this time. There's a lot of evidence to support 5k by next week, including the amount of price compression that has been going on over the last 5 trading periods. However, that same compression can also be fuel for the bulls to push price into 11k.

One thing is clear, we will know which side wins very soon. I think in about a week, maybe 2.

[mymenace]

I agree. Things happen much slower now. We went on a bull run in slow motion and now we are correcting in slow motion. We could still be doing a correction that April '13 did in a matters of days - now its taking months.

Those of us that have been around a long time - I think most will agree the sentiment at the top of this bull run was more bullish than April
13 but less bullish than Nov. 13. I figure this correction will split the difference between the two.

i also have the feeling that the chart movements are slowing down so much, that it is hard to grasp it. funny though that there are people who think movements are speeding up.

Yeah sentiment seems accurate (very bullish), their is an adoption phase going on and old bitcoiners have been waiting and know this and are excited (true value of btc?)

Technical indicators point to HUGE! bear trap, $8000 USD has bounced around now for 8 weeks (great swings)

W pattern forming weekly chart??? bullish

MACD weekly pattern declining

fundamentals - media assisting and providing support on bitcoin use and of course attacks from banks and regulatory authorities ramping up

ah heck lets call it..

Its a trap

[Bitcoinaire]

The latest:

"For my medium-term optimism, it is necessary that the price immediately rises above the daily ma 200 and weekly ma 20."


Для мoeгo cpeднecpoчнoгo oптимизмa нeoбxoдимo чтoбы цeнa нeмeдлeннo вoзвыcилacь нaд днeвнoй мa 200 и нeдeльнoй мa 20.

[greensheep]

The market found support lower than I expected, but the bullish scenario is not dead yet. This support will probably be tested tomorrow,
and a bullish scenario needs the test to be followed by strong buys for the next 5 days, reaching 10 k$, then correct and form a triangle.

My god you are completely delusional, did you sell your account? Old tzupy was sharper than that.  We've been in a bear market since months now, there wont be any bullish scenario before price is boring again and we go through a desperation period so market makers can accumulate and we get rid of all the guys who came here to get rich quick.

Right now price is bleeding slowly to keep people in the market until they get desperate and capitulate under 6K.

ML scenario of 3K seems the most appropriate to that effect.

It's possible we go towards 9200 or 10250 in the meantime but it'll just be an opportunity to short and break the 6K bottom with more ease.

Almost every "trader" is babbling the same shit like you, so I assume you are wrong -> Too many bears -> bullish

Only when the last bear has capitulated....
Only when the last bull has capituladed...

Where are we now...

[greensheep]

The latest:

"For my medium-term optimism, it is necessary that the price immediately rises above the daily ma 200 and weekly ma 20."


Для мoeгo cpeднecpoчнoгo oптимизмa нeoбxoдимo чтoбы цeнa нeмeдлeннo вoзвыcилacь нaд днeвнoй мa 200 и нeдeльнoй мa 20.

If I'm correct:
daily SMA 200 about 9.25K --> can do
Weekly SMA 20 about almost 12K --> seems not possible

daily EMA 200 about 9.1K --> can do
weekly EMA 20 about 9.8K --> well hm..

[STT]

^^ You have the perfect storm forming seems like.   I have a long term bullish trend closely aligned to the 200 Daily moving average and they are quite close to where the current price is.   So I would have to agree with our Russian friend for at least pointing at a place of high significance, if we both came to this conclusion independently then that increases my interest in what happens in this area.   I'm not sure yet on market strength exactly, I think credit did some damage and Im not sure how important that was vs the fees problem now resolved.

[marcus_of_augustus]

... the next 200 days are critical.