Analysis

[Wekkel]

God enough for me. I will just patiently await where this is going.

[1714179440]

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[1714179440]

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[1714179440]

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[keystroke]

Tempting to use some dry powder to scoop up more coins...

[Tzupy]

...
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.

The triangle didn't even form properly and broke down, oh well...

Bearish scenario: that the whole 20 k$ to 6 k$ correction was wave A, we had the wave B to 12 k$ and now C could reach as low as 3 k$, but I am not convinced yet.
The market is oversold in 12h and 24h time frames, but there are signs of exiting the oversold condition, like the possible (tomorrow?) flip of 6h and 12h PSAR to bullish.
The bid side has also recovered somewhat on both GDAX and Bitfinex, so there is ammo to pump, traders just wait for improved indicators to join a pump.

[windjc]

...
The market was weak and didn't reach the 10 k$ I was hoping for (and more importantly, push the 6h, 12h and 24h MACD higher), and now the correction is worsening the indicators.
I compared the current movements (from 6th February) with those of September 15th - 25th 2017, and if the bullish scenario will still win, the market moves about 6x slower
and should start pumping strongly 5 - 6 days from now (but given the current weakness, the pump could fail). If this fails, then the bearish scenario becomes quite probable.

The triangle didn't even form properly and broke down, oh well...

Bearish scenario: that the whole 20 k$ to 6 k$ correction was wave A, we had the wave B to 12 k$ and now C could reach as low as 3 k$, but I am not convinced yet.
The market is oversold in 12h and 24h time frames, but there are signs of exiting the oversold condition, like the possible (tomorrow?) flip of 6h and 12h PSAR to bullish.
The bid side has also recovered somewhat on both GDAX and Bitfinex, so there is ammo to pump, traders just wait for improved indicators to join a pump.

I agree. My spidey sense says that we might have found a local bottom or real soon.

[Tzupy]

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

.... and now?

[Tzupy]

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

.... and now?

Weekly MACD crossed into negative some days ago, but it's not deep yet. If we'll go sideways for long enough, the 12h MACD will be close to cross into positive and a pump could be attempted.

[ssmc2]

So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.

[exstasie]

So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.

I've heard that markets trend 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time, they chop and consolidate. In my experience that's correct. With that in mind, "up, down, or sideways" is the best approach until the market has decisively trapped either bulls or bears on the wrong side of a consolidation. Humans tend to hold through (and double down on) losses, so once a significant trading range is broken, it's worth taking note and following the trend.

We're in the middle of a 2-week consolidation, tight range. There should be gas in the tank once we have a breakout. Fingers crossed for > $7,500 but this is a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise.

[harvw]

Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?

[DimaKHV]

Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?

https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/7
Bpoдe клин cpaбoтaл!

[snowdropfore]

what does the new update mean??

[exstasie]

what does the new update mean??

The 1-day chart shows a falling (bullish) wedge. I mentioned it here:

A trading friend of mine (who generally leans permabear) is partial to this bullish wedge:

The wedge has now broken upwards. Masterluc says, "Bpoдe клин cpaбoтaл!" which means, "It seems the wedge worked!" So we should trend upwards for a while.

I would like to see an update to this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

It's not obvious to me (because another three weeks have passed since he posted that) whether we failed the mid-line or not. But I take Masterluc's words (and the strong bounce off the 1-week 50MA) to mean that we are bullish for the foreseeable future.

I suspect we will have another round of despair in a few months, but for now, everything looks bullish. We are likely to re-test the lower $7,000s but I would be extremely surprised if bears are allowed below $7,000 again. Lots of trapped shorts still to be squeezed.

[TheQuin]

I would like to see an update to this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

It's not obvious to me (because another three weeks have passed since he posted that) whether we failed the mid-line or not. But I take Masterluc's words (and the strong bounce off the 1-week 50MA) to mean that we are bullish for the foreseeable future.

I had a go at drawing the same lines on the same weekly log scale chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qoRIHLgS/


Disclaimer: I'm not entirely sure it means anything.

[exstasie]

I would like to see an update to this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

It's not obvious to me (because another three weeks have passed since he posted that) whether we failed the mid-line or not. But I take Masterluc's words (and the strong bounce off the 1-week 50MA) to mean that we are bullish for the foreseeable future.

I had a go at drawing the same lines on the same weekly log scale chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qoRIHLgS/

Disclaimer: I'm not entirely sure it means anything.

Thanks. Ideally, we'd only wick through the mid-line, but I'm keeping an open mind here. I should point out that pitchfork lines are fairly subjective based on who's drawing the lines and where they decide areas of confluence are.

Anyway, in the short term, I'm looking for a dip. But ideally it would be a short term consolidation before one leg higher, to form an impulse. Bigger picture, I'm still looking for a push into the lower $7,000s but I think it's really unlikely bears get new lows. Scribble of one possible path on the road to $10,000+:

[marky89]

I guess the master is bullish, then? Based on that wedge? At least for a solid bounce I assume.

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

[TheQuin]

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

From his trust wall it looks like the account has been hacked and is now inactive.

[Millionero]

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

From his trust wall it looks like the account has been hacked and is now inactive.

Yes, masterluc's account was hacked, and he doesn't use bitcointalk any more.
He has a blog
https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
and a telegram account
https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga

[drays]

I guess the master is bullish, then? Based on that wedge? At least for a solid bounce I assume.

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

He is not exactly bullish, he just said there may be bullish trend in short-term (the one actually happened last days), however he didn't tell it is going to continue mid term. He just said it *might* escalate, but with low certainty ("вoзмoжнa нeкaя бычья движyxa в кpaткocpoкe c пepcпeктивoй эcкaлaции."). I assume he prefers to be careful now, given the awkward state of the market and price drop below his longterm mid-lower trend line here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/.

[exstasie]

Anyway, in the short term, I'm looking for a dip. But ideally it would be a short term consolidation before one leg higher, to form an impulse. Bigger picture, I'm still looking for a push into the lower $7,000s but I think it's really unlikely bears get new lows. Scribble of one possible path on the road to $10,000+:

Price is following the expected course:



Price action from the $6,600s forms a clean impulse. That's good news because it suggests it was a Wave A or Wave 1, meaning there is probably more upside to come after this pullback. We should be prepared for continued dipping into the mid-$7,000s. There's a nice gap there that needs to be filled.