Analysis

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Six months have passed since the beginning of the correction, there are still as many. Sewers did not want to fall. Bitcoin too. The longer we hold at current levels, the higher the probability of falling to new bottoms.

I think there will be a multi-month outset. Time is now against the bears.

Correction: so BELOW the probability of falling

A cryptic message again from the Master 

Google translate says:

Six months have passed since the beginning of the correction, there are still as many. Sewers did not want to fall. Bitcoin too. The longer we hold at current levels, the lower the probability of falling to new bottoms.

I think there will be a multi-month outset. Time is now against the bears.

He does not seem to expect new highs until 2019 FWIW. 

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[figmentofmyass]

it's always so difficult trying to decipher his words. i'm beginning to think he does it on purpose!

sounds to me like he expects a ranging market, on a multi-month timeframe? and the probability of new lows (sub-$5700s) is growing smaller, but still possible?

that's pretty much my outlook as well. boring (but not dismally bearish) for the next year or so.

[birr]

Six months have passed since the beginning of the correction, there are still as many. Sewers did not want to fall. Bitcoin too. The longer we hold at current levels, the higher the probability of falling to new bottoms.

I think there will be a multi-month outset. Time is now against the bears.

Correction: so BELOW the probability of falling

A cryptic message again from the Master  

So below the LOWER the probability of falling (the longer we hold at current levels).
I think "sewers" should be "stocks."

[celeNG666]

I kind of confuse actualy...
it's not a guarantee I think, but it depend the way we improve

[Wekkel]

Got this translation in the WO thread:

“Six months have passed since the beginning of the correction, with maybe as many yet to come. Stocks stopped wanting to fall. Bitcoin too. The longer we hold at current levels, the higher the probability of falling to new bottoms.
I think there will be many months of sideways. Time is now against the bears.
Correction: the lower the probability of falling”

[Wind_FURY]

it's always so difficult trying to decipher his words. i'm beginning to think he does it on purpose!

sounds to me like he expects a ranging market, on a multi-month timeframe? and the probability of new lows (sub-$5700s) is growing smaller, but still possible?

that's pretty much my outlook as well. boring (but not dismally bearish) for the next year or so.

This chart is all you need to look at in times of boredom, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4540750.0

Plus a "ranging market" is the best scenario to predictably buy every dip before the halving on 2020.

[drays]

it's always so difficult trying to decipher his words. i'm beginning to think he does it on purpose!

No, its just because he uses informal Russian mixed with trader's jargon. Google-transaled version is hard to read and funny at best, but the original text is easily understandable for Russian speaker. Honestly, Google translator sucks badly.

The translation provided by Wekkel above, is correct. I would add my translation, so there are two versions for better understanding:

It is already half a year since the beginning of correction cycle, and still half a year remains until its end. Stocks don't want to fall anymore, and Bitcoin doesn't want as well. The longer we keep the current levels, the higher is the probability of falling to new lows.

I think there will be many months of sideways movement. Time now plays against bears.

Correction to text above: "the LOWER is the probability of falling to new lows."

The correction in the text is not mine, it is in the original text from masterluc. I don't correct or comment on his words, as I am not a prophet . Hopefully he is right, though as you can see he is not certain, especially now, after some of his recent short-term predictions turned to be ... not so precise, to say mildly

[neilol-real-again]

Do we have any confirmation this is the real ML/Vanga?

https://twitter.com/masterlyuk

Didn't see it discussed here

[drays]

Do we have any confirmation this is the real ML/Vanga?

https://twitter.com/masterlyuk

Didn't see it discussed here

99.99% fake. I don't have any official info on this, but reading those tweets I can see they are not from masterluk. They do not fit his views, his character and his writing style.

[nashvidi]

Important adjustment from the master

https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@bitcoin_wanga

Пoлгoдa пpoшлo c нaчaлa кoppeкции, ocтaлocь eщe cтoлькo жe. Cтoки pacxoтeли пaдaть. Биткoин тoжe. Чeм дoльшe мы дepжимcя нa тeкyщиx ypoвняx, тeм вышe вepoятнocть пaдeния нa нoвыe низы.

Я дyмaю бyдeт мнoгoмecячный бoкoвик. Bpeмя тeпepь пpoтив мeдвeдeй.

Пoпpaвкa: тeм HИЖE вepoятнocть пaдeния

[Micky25]

which was already posted one page back.

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

[podyx]

Has masterluc made any prediction lately?

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

[abedit]

From ML on his Telegram Channel:  Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик. $6000-$7000 длитeльнaя зoнa нaкoплeния биткoв.

Google Translate:  Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.


As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.

[Millionero]

For some reason bitcoin is called "cueballs."  Could be slang, or something about the auto-translator getting confused by non-standard Russian spelling.  The bit about long term accumulation 6-7k is obvious, but it might be interesting to receive a little enlightenment about what "Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик." might mean.
Bing translator translates Идём в бoкoвик as "go to sideways," apparently what me mean when we say going sideways.

[drays]

From ML on his Telegram Channel:  Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик. $6000-$7000 длитeльнaя зoнa нaкoплeния биткoв.

Google Translate:  Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.


As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.

Manual translation: "Yes, sideways. We are transitioning to sideways moving market.  $6000-$7000 is long lasting Bitcoin accumulation zone."

Quite optimistic statement, if you ask me...

[AR_fan]

From ML on his Telegram Channel:  Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик. $6000-$7000 длитeльнaя зoнa нaкoплeния биткoв.

Google Translate:  Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.


As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.

Manual translation: "Yes, sideways. We are transitioning to sideways moving market.  $6000-$7000 is long lasting Bitcoin accumulation zone."

he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

[JayJuanGee]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?