Analysis

[Wind_FURY]

it's always so difficult trying to decipher his words. i'm beginning to think he does it on purpose!

sounds to me like he expects a ranging market, on a multi-month timeframe? and the probability of new lows (sub-$5700s) is growing smaller, but still possible?

that's pretty much my outlook as well. boring (but not dismally bearish) for the next year or so.

This chart is all you need to look at in times of boredom, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4540750.0

Plus a "ranging market" is the best scenario to predictably buy every dip before the halving on 2020.

[drays]

it's always so difficult trying to decipher his words. i'm beginning to think he does it on purpose!

No, its just because he uses informal Russian mixed with trader's jargon. Google-transaled version is hard to read and funny at best, but the original text is easily understandable for Russian speaker. Honestly, Google translator sucks badly.

The translation provided by Wekkel above, is correct. I would add my translation, so there are two versions for better understanding:

It is already half a year since the beginning of correction cycle, and still half a year remains until its end. Stocks don't want to fall anymore, and Bitcoin doesn't want as well. The longer we keep the current levels, the higher is the probability of falling to new lows.

I think there will be many months of sideways movement. Time now plays against bears.

Correction to text above: "the LOWER is the probability of falling to new lows."

The correction in the text is not mine, it is in the original text from masterluc. I don't correct or comment on his words, as I am not a prophet . Hopefully he is right, though as you can see he is not certain, especially now, after some of his recent short-term predictions turned to be ... not so precise, to say mildly

[neilol-real-again]

Do we have any confirmation this is the real ML/Vanga?

https://twitter.com/masterlyuk

Didn't see it discussed here

[drays]

Do we have any confirmation this is the real ML/Vanga?

https://twitter.com/masterlyuk

Didn't see it discussed here

99.99% fake. I don't have any official info on this, but reading those tweets I can see they are not from masterluk. They do not fit his views, his character and his writing style.

[nashvidi]

Important adjustment from the master

https://web.telegram.org/#/im?p=@bitcoin_wanga

Пoлгoдa пpoшлo c нaчaлa кoppeкции, ocтaлocь eщe cтoлькo жe. Cтoки pacxoтeли пaдaть. Биткoин тoжe. Чeм дoльшe мы дepжимcя нa тeкyщиx ypoвняx, тeм вышe вepoятнocть пaдeния нa нoвыe низы.

Я дyмaю бyдeт мнoгoмecячный бoкoвик. Bpeмя тeпepь пpoтив мeдвeдeй.

Пoпpaвкa: тeм HИЖE вepoятнocть пaдeния

[Micky25]

which was already posted one page back.

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

[podyx]

Has masterluc made any prediction lately?

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

[abedit]

From ML on his Telegram Channel:  Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик. $6000-$7000 длитeльнaя зoнa нaкoплeния биткoв.

Google Translate:  Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.


As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.

[Millionero]

For some reason bitcoin is called "cueballs."  Could be slang, or something about the auto-translator getting confused by non-standard Russian spelling.  The bit about long term accumulation 6-7k is obvious, but it might be interesting to receive a little enlightenment about what "Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик." might mean.
Bing translator translates Идём в бoкoвик as "go to sideways," apparently what me mean when we say going sideways.

[drays]

From ML on his Telegram Channel:  Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик. $6000-$7000 длитeльнaя зoнa нaкoплeния биткoв.

Google Translate:  Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.


As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.

Manual translation: "Yes, sideways. We are transitioning to sideways moving market.  $6000-$7000 is long lasting Bitcoin accumulation zone."

Quite optimistic statement, if you ask me...

[AR_fan]

From ML on his Telegram Channel:  Дa, в бoк. Идём в бoкoвик. $6000-$7000 длитeльнaя зoнa нaкoплeния биткoв.

Google Translate:  Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.


As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.

Manual translation: "Yes, sideways. We are transitioning to sideways moving market.  $6000-$7000 is long lasting Bitcoin accumulation zone."

he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

[JayJuanGee]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?

[Tzupy]

...
What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?

By strong buys I understand buys that would break the 8,500$ resistance, followed by a minor ABC correction, and to keep the price action away from the lower BB on the weekly chart.
So far, what I have seen favors a bearish scenario, the correction from 8,500$ was stronger than I expected (I had bullish expectations), and we are close to the lower BB.
Still, since we flipped the 12h PSAR to bullish and seems we are emerging from the 24h very oversold state, I expect to have found a local bottom (at least for a while).
That some altcoins do much worse than bitcoin does not make bitcoin look more bullish, sorry.

[gentlemand]

he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

Aye. I'm interested in what he has to say but I think his magic touch has wafted away for now. We still haven't reached the truly sweat inducing price, let alone the indifference phase. It depends on whether this is a lull that picks up towards the end of the year or a continued descent.

[figmentofmyass]

he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

Aye. I'm interested in what he has to say but I think his magic touch has wafted away for now. We still haven't reached the truly sweat inducing price, let alone the indifference phase. It depends on whether this is a lull that picks up towards the end of the year or a continued descent.

he's still been pretty solid on the bigger picture. i think he (rightfully) has become less and less precise because this market trades much choppier than in the old days---it's super algo-heavy now. it's simply less predictable than it used to be. so as a trader, i fade less and less, and i ride trends more and more.

we got a nice short squeeze today off $6k. hopefully a sign that he's right about $6k being on the low end of an accumulation range.

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?

In the mean time, weekly PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitstamp and GDAX, so it's likely the shit will hit the fan, the bearish scenario is now my favorite.
The market stayed very oversold in the 24h time frame, I was expecting some bounce, but it didn't happen, so I deem the market as very weak.

[tokeweed]

So wait...  What was masterluc's prediction on this day last year?  I think it was supposed to be higher than where it is now and bullish right?

I'd like to see what chart he did around Aug. 14, 2017 if a reg in this thread could kindly pull it up.  Thanks.