Analysis

[Tzupy]

...
What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?

By strong buys I understand buys that would break the 8,500$ resistance, followed by a minor ABC correction, and to keep the price action away from the lower BB on the weekly chart.
So far, what I have seen favors a bearish scenario, the correction from 8,500$ was stronger than I expected (I had bullish expectations), and we are close to the lower BB.
Still, since we flipped the 12h PSAR to bullish and seems we are emerging from the 24h very oversold state, I expect to have found a local bottom (at least for a while).
That some altcoins do much worse than bitcoin does not make bitcoin look more bullish, sorry.

[gentlemand]

he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

Aye. I'm interested in what he has to say but I think his magic touch has wafted away for now. We still haven't reached the truly sweat inducing price, let alone the indifference phase. It depends on whether this is a lull that picks up towards the end of the year or a continued descent.

[figmentofmyass]

he's been wrong on all his predictions lately, i wont be surprised if we break 6000 and go towards 5K before rebounding a little and then slowly crash towards 2600

didnt see your edit, yeah too optimistic for me too, the get quick rich people and all the retail investors have to be burned before we switch to a bull market, now the market is just exhausting their nerves, we havent entered the despair phase where they are wondering if it will ever come back up again

Aye. I'm interested in what he has to say but I think his magic touch has wafted away for now. We still haven't reached the truly sweat inducing price, let alone the indifference phase. It depends on whether this is a lull that picks up towards the end of the year or a continued descent.

he's still been pretty solid on the bigger picture. i think he (rightfully) has become less and less precise because this market trades much choppier than in the old days---it's super algo-heavy now. it's simply less predictable than it used to be. so as a trader, i fade less and less, and i ride trends more and more.

we got a nice short squeeze today off $6k. hopefully a sign that he's right about $6k being on the low end of an accumulation range.

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?

In the mean time, weekly PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitstamp and GDAX, so it's likely the shit will hit the fan, the bearish scenario is now my favorite.
The market stayed very oversold in the 24h time frame, I was expecting some bounce, but it didn't happen, so I deem the market as very weak.

[tokeweed]

So wait...  What was masterluc's prediction on this day last year?  I think it was supposed to be higher than where it is now and bullish right?

I'd like to see what chart he did around Aug. 14, 2017 if a reg in this thread could kindly pull it up.  Thanks. 

[Mallyx]

So wait...  What was masterluc's prediction on this day last year?  I think it was supposed to be higher than where it is now and bullish right?

I'd like to see what chart he did around Aug. 14, 2017 if a reg in this thread could kindly pull it up.  Thanks.  

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.

edit:
mistake, it's that one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/
Again, still accurate to me except the timeframe, but if it keep dropping, the chart will be invalidated.

This one is also nice, the accuracy is high for a +1y old prediction: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

[Mallyx]

So wait...  What was masterluc's prediction on this day last year?  I think it was supposed to be higher than where it is now and bullish right?

I'd like to see what chart he did around Aug. 14, 2017 if a reg in this thread could kindly pull it up.  Thanks.  

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.

edit:
mistake, it's that one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/
Again, still accurate to me except the timeframe, but if it keep dropping, the chart will be invalidated.

This one is also nice, the accuracy is high for a +1y old prediction: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.

hmmmm  huh heh ha ba ha BAH HA BAH HA HA!!!

The chart?!!! The chart?!!!  

Always interesting as to why there is no fundamentals in your analysis, are these linked elsewhere?

It's not my analysis.

Was just an answer to @tokeweed.

[Mallyx]

Masterluc isn't so easy to follow, I'm only wayching that thread sometimes.
The TA above is 1y+ old and I find it pretty accurate. He moslty rely to Eliott waves for his predictions.

[tokeweed]

So wait...  What was masterluc's prediction on this day last year?  I think it was supposed to be higher than where it is now and bullish right?
I'd like to see what chart he did around Aug. 14, 2017 if a reg in this thread could kindly pull it up.  Thanks.  

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.
edit:
mistake, it's that one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/
Again, still accurate to me except the timeframe, but if it keep dropping, the chart will be invalidated.
This one is also nice, the accuracy is high for a +1y old prediction: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.
hmmmm  huh heh ha ba ha BAH HA BAH HA HA!!!
The chart?!!! The chart?!!!  
Always interesting as to why there is no fundamentals in your analysis, are these linked elsewhere?

It's not my analysis.
Was just an answer to @tokeweed.

no disrespect

i just found the strike funny in the current market as it seems all TA has gone out the window

seriously though
Are fundamentals included with these analysis, or they do not exist in this world, or linked elsewhere?

again no disrespect, gave me a chuckle

cheers

Thanks Mallyx.  Appreciate it. 

And reading about the 'fundamentals' are nice but it doesn't really help some traders, on when to buy, at what price and how much to buy.  Everything really is in the price, momentum and volatility imho.  The rest is just market noise.

But that's just me.

[Mallyx]

So wait...  What was masterluc's prediction on this day last year?  I think it was supposed to be higher than where it is now and bullish right?
I'd like to see what chart he did around Aug. 14, 2017 if a reg in this thread could kindly pull it up.  Thanks.  

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.
edit:
mistake, it's that one: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/
Again, still accurate to me except the timeframe, but if it keep dropping, the chart will be invalidated.
This one is also nice, the accuracy is high for a +1y old prediction: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

That chart ?
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/
The timeframe isn't good anymore but for me still pretty accurate until BTC drop below $5k.
hmmmm  huh heh ha ba ha BAH HA BAH HA HA!!!
The chart?!!! The chart?!!!  
Always interesting as to why there is no fundamentals in your analysis, are these linked elsewhere?

It's not my analysis.
Was just an answer to @tokeweed.

no disrespect

i just found the strike funny in the current market as it seems all TA has gone out the window

seriously though
Are fundamentals included with these analysis, or they do not exist in this world, or linked elsewhere?

again no disrespect, gave me a chuckle

cheers

Thanks Mallyx.  Appreciate it. 

And reading about the 'fundamentals' are nice but it doesn't really help some traders, on when to buy, at what price and how much to buy.  Everything really is in the price, momentum and volatility imho.  The rest is just market noise.

But that's just me.

Fundamentals have to be specified only when they are subjective.
When they are objective, just refer to the rules.

To me @masterluc is the most accurate guy of all time with his predictions, belong @chessnut. He can be wrong, ofc, it's just predictions, not prophecies.

[Mallyx]

It's being discussed starting by here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.5160
Not sure he posted any fundamentals, he just said "no resistances until 15k", then he applied the EW likewise.

[Tzupy]

The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.

I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish...

We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce.
But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.

What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks?  You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too?  How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly?  Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?   

By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space.  So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic.  In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin.  I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?

In the mean time, weekly PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitstamp and GDAX, so it's likely the shit will hit the fan, the bearish scenario is now my favorite.
The market stayed very oversold in the 24h time frame, I was expecting some bounce, but it didn't happen, so I deem the market as very weak.

The market has recovered to some extent, and now is experiencing a (hopefully minor) correction.
If this will play similar to July 9 - 15, then we'll get a new rally, possibly reaching ~10 k$. Watch the 12h time frame, for exiting oversold.

[AR_fan]

its like all the old jedi masters are rekt by current market behaviour

tzupy calls arent what they used to be

masterluc last post was bullish and happened at the top of the wave

who will be our next jedi teacher?

better become your own

[marky89]

Anything from Masterluc, lately?

Looking forward to breaking this range. I guess with today's $1,100+ dump, we're clearly not breaking out to the upside. Last I heard, he said $6K-7K was base, a range for bullish accumulation. Is that still his position?

[JayJuanGee]

its like all the old jedi masters are rekt by current market behaviour

tzupy calls arent what they used to be

masterluc last post was bullish and happened at the top of the wave

who will be our next jedi teacher?

better become your own

It seems to me that if you look closely, most predictions are hedged, yet frequently readers will read too much into them.

So, for example, there may be a bold prediction to suggest that an outcome is 75% likely to happen; however, there still remains a 25% chance that it won't.  Surely, I get pissed off by some predictions, mostly when the predictions fail to assert what kind of probability that they are giving to what they consider to be the most likely outcome, which causes them to appear as if they are asserting something to be 100% likely when they are not really saying that, unless they happen to be retarded.

[ft73]

I fail to see what's surprising in this correction.
A giant bearish flag was clearly visible at least by the last weeks of August.

For instance:


Morevover Stoch RSI was overbought on daily since Aug, 22.
It stayed so for 2 full weeks ( till yesterday ), which is something.

So i think we got plenty of warnings.

[ft73]

OBV / 1D

[Wekkel]

Interesting.

Where would BTC price be when hitting that yellow band?

[exstasie]

Interesting.

Where would BTC price be when hitting that yellow band?

It's difficult to say, since OBV is volume-based. It really depends on the whether the 1-day candles close green or red, and how large volume is on any given day. A nice, slow slide to $6,000 or sightly below might do it if bulls buy the dumps.......preferably it would hold above the last low to keep the bull case intact. This is the formula used to calculate the OBV:

The OBV is a running total of volume (positive and negative). There are three rules implemented when calculating the OBV. They are:

1. If today's closing price is higher than yesterday's closing price, then: Current OBV = Previous OBV + today's volume

2. If today's closing price is lower than yesterday's closing price, then: Current OBV = Previous OBV - today's volume

3. If today's closing price equals yesterday's closing price, then: Current OBV = Previous OBV

[ft73]

Interesting.

Where would BTC price be when hitting that yellow band?

Better keeping an eye on it, as it's very difficult to predict the price.
I think potentially 5700-6000$, but it's a blind guess.

I made some comments here, if you care:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/xJ0eluJJ-A-chance-for-the-Bulls-Let-s-see/

Just my 2 cents.