Analysis

[jadenunderhill]

Google translation:

Kstati Bitcoin today is full 10 years: beer:

I can translate little better

By the way, Bitcoin became 10 years old. Beer)

[1713994643]

1713994643

[1713994643]

1713994643

[mihail19]

https://c.radikal.ru/c02/1901/b5/367dfbba13ec.png
кaк вaм движeниe биткoинa в этoм кaнaлe?

[fright]

News from Master:
"Heдeльнaя мa200. Haчaлa cyщecтвoвaть пpимepнo в кoнцe 2014. B нaчaлe и cpeдинe 2015 былa пpoтecтиpoвaнa c мoмeнтaльным oтcкoкoм. Я тoгдa пиcaл "cмoтpитe! пoкyпaйтe!". Знaя нacкoлькo ввepx oт нee мoжeт yйти цeнa. Ceйчac cитyaция пoвтopяeтcя. Boзмoжeн тecт вниз c мoмeнтaльным oтcкoкoм. Ho xpeн oнo ee пpoбьeт. A пoтoм бyдeт pocт. Ho ecли пpoбьeт и yдepжитcя, я кaк бык oфициaльнo cдaюcь"


Weekly ma200. It began to exist around the end of 2014. At the beginning and in the middle of 2015, it was tested with an instant rebound. I then wrote "look! Buy!". Knowing how much the price can go up from it. Now the situation is repeated. Chance to test down with an instant rebound. But hell it will break it. And then there will be growth. But if I strike and hold on, I’m officially giving up like a bull.

[machouno]

The translation is quite confusing

[birr]

Until the Russian native speakers weigh in, I'll take a swing at it.
Weekly MA200 served the function of a trampoline in 2015 and promises to do so now.
"hell it will break it" (MA200) is the colloquial Russian typical of our maestro.  Waiting for the Russian native speakers to weigh in.

When I pasted "Ho ecли пpoбьeт и yдepжитcя, я кaк бык oфициaльнo cдaюcь" in Google Translate, it gave me
But if there is a way to survive, I, as a bull, will formally surrender

I'm looking for a way to export the MA200 data from some charting site for comparison to the square root trend posted above.
Rough estimate of the MA200 current rate of ascent, annualized, is about 70 or 75%.  By comparison, the square root trend extrapolates to a doubling in 2019.

[figmentofmyass]

another bump for the native russians to chime in.....

The translation is quite confusing

from what i can glean, he's reinforcing his earlier opinion that anything below the weekly ma200 will bounce very hard---same as 2015 he says. i'm very curious what the last sentence means though. something about what would make him give up as a bull? does he mean closing below the ma200? i thought the long term basis for his analysis was the sqrt trend though.....

[exstasie]

A lot of people (too many?) are focusing on the weekly 200 MA but breaking it doesn't really matter. In October 2008, Amazon stock broke below it for around 3 months (around  $50 at the time), 1 year later the price had almost tripled.

No indicator (moving average or otherwise) is a guarantee of support or resistance. It's just a matter of probability. It's obvious the 200-week MA (along with the 200-day and 20-week) are important for traders and investors, whether because of a self-fulfilling prophecy or otherwise. Markets often respect these levels, including Bitcoin.

The first data on the 200-week MA in Bitcoin markets came out in 2014. The only times the market ever tested it (twice in 2015), it held. With such limited price history (2010 on), it's hard to ignore that.

[keystroke]

Native speaker says the last line is idiomatic. Basically means, "if it crosses the line previous stated, I was wrong/give up."

[windjc]

Native speaker says the last line is idiomatic. Basically means, "if it crosses the line previous stated, I was wrong/give up."

Wrong and give up have too entirely different meanings.

[Wind_FURY]

A lot of people (too many?) are focusing on the weekly 200 MA but breaking it doesn't really matter. In October 2008, Amazon stock broke below it for around 3 months (around  $50 at the time), 1 year later the price had almost tripled.

No indicator (moving average or otherwise) is a guarantee of support or resistance. It's just a matter of probability. It's obvious the 200-week MA (along with the 200-day and 20-week) are important for traders and investors, whether because of a self-fulfilling prophecy or otherwise. Markets often respect these levels, including Bitcoin.

The first data on the 200-week MA in Bitcoin markets came out in 2014. The only times the market ever tested it (twice in 2015), it held. With such limited price history (2010 on), it's hard to ignore that.

True. My point is that a close below the weekly 200 MA doesn't mean the end of the BTC bull market and is where the smart money hopes to buy Your bitcoins by inducing a panic reaction.

I believe the holders, the "weak hands", and whoever is participating in this market have already acquired enough knowledge and experience of the Bitcoin market not to fall for the whalecumulators' traps.

On the contrary, I believe they will be placing bids below the weekly 200 MA.

[ophyrim]

A lot of people (too many?) are focusing on the weekly 200 MA but breaking it doesn't really matter. In October 2008, Amazon stock broke below it for around 3 months (around  $50 at the time), 1 year later the price had almost tripled.

No indicator (moving average or otherwise) is a guarantee of support or resistance. It's just a matter of probability. It's obvious the 200-week MA (along with the 200-day and 20-week) are important for traders and investors, whether because of a self-fulfilling prophecy or otherwise. Markets often respect these levels, including Bitcoin.

The first data on the 200-week MA in Bitcoin markets came out in 2014. The only times the market ever tested it (twice in 2015), it held. With such limited price history (2010 on), it's hard to ignore that.

True. My point is that a close below the weekly 200 MA doesn't mean the end of the BTC bull market and is where the smart money hopes to buy Your bitcoins by inducing a panic reaction.

I believe the holders, the "weak hands", and whoever is participating in this market have already acquired enough knowledge and experience of the Bitcoin market not to fall for the whalecumulators' traps.

On the contrary, I believe they will be placing bids below the weekly 200 MA.

That's totally possible, and the weekly 200 MA might even hold. But it's very clear the wannabe BTC bottom buyers are building a narrative, that BTC has never broken the weekly 200 MA and if it does it's the end of the world. Very transparent.

There is also a probability that we can see a flash drop and recover under weekly 200 MA, I mean a capitulation candle like 14 January 2015 which has a pin under  200 weekly but the close is above weekly 200 MA.

[ft73]

Chart and Weekly RSI



Falling wedges, even on RSI ( Look at 2014-2015 ).

Monthly RSI / Stoch RSI



Both within their historical support area ( 2014 / 2015 ).
Should bulls be able to have them close above support in january then anything may happen ...

[drays]

Ok, so as a somewhat-native Russian speaker, I'll try to translate the unclear parts. In fact, @figmentofmyass, while not being Russian speaker, got them right anyway.

Until the Russian native speakers weigh in, I'll take a swing at it.
Weekly MA200 served the function of a trampoline in 2015 and promises to do so now.
"hell it will break it" (MA200) is the colloquial Russian typical of our maestro.  Waiting for the Russian native speakers to weigh in.

"Ho xpeн oнo ee пpoбьeт." - "But hell it will break it." in more formal language means - "There is absolutely no way the price will be able to brake MA200". He means it can be tested and even pierced, but should bounce immediately.

When I pasted "Ho ecли пpoбьeт и yдepжитcя, я кaк бык oфициaльнo cдaюcь" in Google Translate, it gave me
But if there is a way to survive, I, as a bull, will formally surrender

It means - "But if anyway price brakes MA200 and stays there, I will officially give up being a bull". That's pretty strong statement, as he means his long-term bullishness, which was unaffected by any prior Bitcoin move.

[Wind_FURY]

A lot of people (too many?) are focusing on the weekly 200 MA but breaking it doesn't really matter. In October 2008, Amazon stock broke below it for around 3 months (around  $50 at the time), 1 year later the price had almost tripled.

No indicator (moving average or otherwise) is a guarantee of support or resistance. It's just a matter of probability. It's obvious the 200-week MA (along with the 200-day and 20-week) are important for traders and investors, whether because of a self-fulfilling prophecy or otherwise. Markets often respect these levels, including Bitcoin.

The first data on the 200-week MA in Bitcoin markets came out in 2014. The only times the market ever tested it (twice in 2015), it held. With such limited price history (2010 on), it's hard to ignore that.

True. My point is that a close below the weekly 200 MA doesn't mean the end of the BTC bull market and is where the smart money hopes to buy Your bitcoins by inducing a panic reaction.

I believe the holders, the "weak hands", and whoever is participating in this market have already acquired enough knowledge and experience of the Bitcoin market not to fall for the whalecumulators' traps.

On the contrary, I believe they will be placing bids below the weekly 200 MA.

That's totally possible, and the weekly 200 MA might even hold. But it's very clear the wannabe BTC bottom buyers are building a narrative, that BTC has never broken the weekly 200 MA and if it does it's the end of the world. Very transparent.

I don't believe that they are "building" a narrative, more of an analysis that doesn't deal with absolutes, but more on the probabilities that it might hold the weekly 200 MA based on past performance.

[ophyrim]

A new dip probability or double bottom probability is higher than a reversal at the moment. We are still in a bearish trend. I think we are going to see a fast dip (for 2-3 days) with very high volume at the level of 2400-3000 USD. this means just a pin under 200 weekly MA. And then we are going to enter an accumulation zone. And a reversal. By the way "Crypto Fear & Greed Index" hasn't done the dip yet.

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/



We touched oversold zone at RSI like 2014, we touched 200 weekly MA like 2014, but we have not seen a capitulation bar like 2014 yet.
Here is a possible scenario.

[birr]

we have not seen a capitulation bar like 2014 yet.

Freefall from $6400 to $3200 may serve the purpose.  If only it had recovered immediately, it would've looked like a capitulation spike.
But this time it didn't bounce.
Which is maybe even more capitulation-ish.

[figmentofmyass]

we have not seen a capitulation bar like 2014 yet.

Freefall from $6400 to $3200 may serve the purpose.  If only it had recovered immediately, it would've looked like a capitulation spike.
But this time it didn't bounce.
Which is maybe even more capitulation-ish.

if only!

the reason analysts use the strong recovery (high volume, hammer candles, etc) as confirmation of capitulation is because it means everyone who wants to sell has already sold. the entire market is left chasing price upwards because of complete seller exhaustion and flip of supply/demand ratio.

the lack of a strong high volume recovery suggests this change in dynamic hasn't occurred yet.

[keystroke]

Yea, I think people got excited too easily.

[Andergriff]

Wanga in Telegram

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
Инвepcия treasuries. Кoгдa кpaткocpoчныe oблигaции пo дoxoднocти пepeгoняют дoлгocpoчныe. Cлyчилocь этo в мapтe, впepвыe c 2007 гoдa
Инфopмaция для paзмышлeния

Translated:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
Inversion of treasury. When short-term bonds yield long-term overtaking. It happened in March, for the first time since 2007.
Information for reflection.

[keystroke]

New post: The weekly candle above the BB will close - there will be a quick happiness for everyone.