Analysis

[figmentofmyass]

I saw this on Twitter. Blue line is volume in USD, green line is volume in USDT. Is Tether/Bitfinex leading the rally again? Or do large USDT hodlers know something bad is about to happen to Tether?

Bitfinex's wallet continues to be drained, https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

and yet outstanding shorts keep rising and rising. it's a beautiful thing---after every little dip, bears just keep piling them on!

so supply on the exchange is lessening; the ask side is getting thinner. meanwhile the rising shorts are building up huge buy pressure (because the shorts eventually need to be closed). looks like bitfinex is gonna drive spot prices upwards yet again.

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[Wind_FURY]

I saw this on Twitter. Blue line is volume in USD, green line is volume in USDT. Is Tether/Bitfinex leading the rally again? Or do large USDT hodlers know something bad is about to happen to Tether?

Bitfinex's wallet continues to be drained, https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r



l

Hmm.. Why you tell "again" then? According to those graphs (IF we trust them - and thats a big IF), the last rally was almost completely driven by USD, with USDT volume being dismal in comparision.

Sorry, I should have made myself clear. I was referring to the first rally of the year that was starting on early February - April. Then the "again", when Bitcoin rallied above $9,000 - $10,000.

I thought USDT/Tether/Bitfinex, as the catalyst for the late-rally, was no more. That data shows that it might be responsible for whole bull market until now.

[drays]

Sorry, I should have made myself clear. I was referring to the first rally of the year that was starting on early February - April. Then the "again", when Bitcoin rallied above $9,000 - $10,000.

I thought USDT/Tether/Bitfinex, as the catalyst for the late-rally, was no more. That data shows that it might be responsible for whole bull market until now.

Thanks for clarification! Who knows.. only Bitfinex/Tether owners could know for sure; the rest are just assumptions in the best case. You can trust your assumptions only if you feel they are really your own, not influenced by outside taking "prophets". Most influential folks on Twitter and elsewhere just spread disinformation (causing FUD/FOMO) to fulfill their own goals, or are doing paid job for those who want to spread disinformation (causing FUD/FOMO). One of the best lessons learned on the internet - never trust info on the internet, unless it comes from a person you personally have reasons to trust - and such persons could be very few, and they cannot be too popular, as "popular" nowadays automatically means "involved in manipulation".
Ok, those are just my random thoughts

And.. I believe, the first rally of the year technically was not a rally by itself - it was just a inevitable wave of a whole EW wave structure - there just should have been one, and it would have happened with or without Bitfinex influence.

[Wind_FURY]

Sorry, I should have made myself clear. I was referring to the first rally of the year that was starting on early February - April. Then the "again", when Bitcoin rallied above $9,000 - $10,000.

I thought USDT/Tether/Bitfinex, as the catalyst for the late-rally, was no more. That data shows that it might be responsible for whole bull market until now.

Thanks for clarification! Who knows.. only Bitfinex/Tether owners could know for sure; the rest are just assumptions in the best case. You can trust your assumptions only if you feel they are really your own, not influenced by outside taking "prophets". Most influential folks on Twitter and elsewhere just spread disinformation (causing FUD/FOMO) to fulfill their own goals, or are doing paid job for those who want to spread disinformation (causing FUD/FOMO). One of the best lessons learned on the internet - never trust info on the internet, unless it comes from a person you personally have reasons to trust - and such persons could be very few, and they cannot be too popular, as "popular" nowadays automatically means "involved in manipulation".
Ok, those are just my random thoughts

And.. I believe, the first rally of the year technically was not a rally by itself - it was just a inevitable wave of a whole EW wave structure - there just should have been one, and it would have happened with or without Bitfinex influence.

I don't believe I could agree with that, but I know we could agree that in that first rally of the year, panicking USDT holders in Bitfinex were the catalyst.

[exstasie]

I don't believe I could agree with that, but I know we could agree that in that first rally of the year, panicking USDT holders in Bitfinex were the catalyst.

I agree with drays. Maybe a catalyst, but not the cause. It would have happened either way.

This price action indicates much larger demand than just an exodus from Tether/Bitfinex. The premium between Bitfinex and the rest of the market closed quite quickly. Much of the time, Bitfinex price has actually remained below exchanges like Bitstamp and Coinbase, suggesting there is real FOMO at play and not just Tether/Bitfinex panic.

[Wind_FURY]

I don't believe I could agree with that, but I know we could agree that in that first rally of the year, panicking USDT holders in Bitfinex were the catalyst.

I agree with drays. Maybe a catalyst, but not the cause. It would have happened either way.

But would it have happened either way, without a cause? I believe that was what drays was saying because of the theory of Elliot Waves.

This price action indicates much larger demand than just an exodus from Tether/Bitfinex. The premium between Bitfinex and the rest of the market closed quite quickly. Much of the time, Bitfinex price has actually remained below exchanges like Bitstamp and Coinbase, suggesting there is real FOMO at play and not just Tether/Bitfinex panic.

Someone also said that "Tether QE program is monetizing altcoins", which I don't understand. Tether is selling altcoins for USDT to buy Bitcoin?

[exstasie]

I agree with drays. Maybe a catalyst, but not the cause. It would have happened either way.

But would it have happened either way, without a cause? I believe that was what drays was saying because of the theory of Elliot Waves.

The cause was excess demand and diminished supply. Period.

The question is whether it would have happened without a catalyst like Bitfinex insolvency panic driving fiat/USDT holders into BTC. I am asserting that yes, it would have happened either way. It may have taken longer, but eventually the excess demand we're seeing would have absorbed all supply at lower levels and began the uptrend anyway.

We see huge price moves without fundamental catalysts all the time. That's why most traders prefer TA to FA. With TA, supply and demand is reflected in the charts whether or not you pay attention to the news.

Someone also said that "Tether QE program is monetizing altcoins", which I don't understand. Tether is selling altcoins for USDT to buy Bitcoin?

I'm not sure what that means without more context. Maybe they mean Tether is propping up the altcoin market via Tether printing or something.

[Wind_FURY]

Someone also said that "Tether QE program is monetizing altcoins", which I don't understand. Tether is selling altcoins for USDT to buy Bitcoin?

I'm not sure what that means without more context. Maybe they mean Tether is propping up the altcoin market via Tether printing or something.

I found the tweet here. I hope that gives you more context, https://twitter.com/silver_watchdog/status/1142789426168377345

I believe QE means "Quantitative Easing"? But how can we find out if Tether has been printing more USDT?

[Globb0]

Twitter is cack.

I can see there are comments but cant view them. Keeps redirecting to the profiles.

Wanky.

[figmentofmyass]

I found the tweet here. I hope that gives you more context, https://twitter.com/silver_watchdog/status/1142789426168377345

I believe QE means "Quantitative Easing"? But how can we find out if Tether has been printing more USDT?

you can track the circulating supply here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

without an audit there's no way to know if they are "printing USDT" out of thin air, but you can track the market cap/supply to see how much is being issued or redeemed.

[Hope_Trader]

any word from the Master?



At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.


It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

Otherwise it's pop and drop and multi year bear market, longest one yet IMO. Would be interested what the top analysts say. Many I have heard agree that if we don't get a proper correction here, it's going to open up 3k or lower again.


Stocks are showing similar irrationality too.


Cheers

[exstasie]

At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.

It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

I wouldn't overgeneralize there. Wave 5s can be extremely strong and this has been seen many times in Bitcoin's internals. Since Historical Wave 1 was shorter than Wave 3, it's possible Wave 5 will be the strongest wave yet. I would not discount this possibility!

Historical Wave 5 could be the vertical leg of an S-curve.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

That's true. We need this wave to subdivide in order to see significant extensions. Straight up in one vertical push would suggest a shorter Wave 5. And after that probably comes a bearish super cycle.

[Hope_Trader]

At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.

It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

I wouldn't overgeneralize there. Wave 5s can be extremely strong and this has been seen many times in Bitcoin's internals. Since Historical Wave 1 was shorter than Wave 3, it's possible Wave 5 will be the strongest wave yet. I would not discount this possibility!

Historical Wave 5 could be the vertical leg of an S-curve.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

That's true. We need this wave to subdivide in order to see significant extensions. Straight up in one vertical push would suggest a shorter Wave 5. And after that probably comes a bearish super cycle.

Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.


The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.




Other thing is indexes are basically going parabolic, a sign of an irrational market IMO. Same story I think, might end badly.

[exstasie]

Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.

xxxx123abcxxxx has some good EW analysis that roughly agrees with you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456

I'm keeping EW guidelines in mind but I also think we need to consider the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin. I'm usually a technicals only kind of guy, but I've been punished hard in the past for ignoring Bitcoin's economic model in favor of EW guidelines. When the past cycles have resulted in huge exponential gains, I'm hesitant to assume it'll stop at 2x the ATH or less.

The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.

I'd love to see what he has to say. He's been a bit off the ball on his last few calls though.

[prophetx]

Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.

xxxx123abcxxxx has some good EW analysis that roughly agrees with you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456

I'm keeping EW guidelines in mind but I also think we need to consider the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin. I'm usually a technicals only kind of guy, but I've been punished hard in the past for ignoring Bitcoin's economic model in favor of EW guidelines. When the past cycles have resulted in huge exponential gains, I'm hesitant to assume it'll stop at 2x the ATH or less.

The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.

I'd love to see what he has to say. He's been a bit off the ball on his last few calls though.

I believe you are on point here. Just looking at the TA one would never see the price going over 10k before 2020. One has to peer into the economic fundamentals and price driven by adoption waves. If you understand why FB was valued at a billion even before it had many users and little revenue you can understand how little shifts in demands equal big gains in price as we have historically seen with Btc

[keystroke]

"Booбщe, мeждy нaми дeвoчкaми, нaдoeлo мнe этo вce. Пpoгнoзы yжe нe тe y мeня, дeлaю я иx бeз былoй xвaтки и видeнья. Pacтoлcтeлa, ocтeпeнилacь вaнгa...

Ho вoт чecтнo гoвopя, пo пocлeднeй cитyaции нa pынкe, мoгy cкaзaть, чтo кpaткocpoчнaя мeдвeжья кapтинкa oпять внeзaпнo пopтитcя. Пpocтo xoтeлa этo cкaзaть."

[keystroke]

And the translation from Google:

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

 But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

[Millionero]

Does that mean it's more bearish or less bearish now?

[keystroke]

Does that mean it's more bearish or less bearish now?

Less bearish.

[boumalo]

Tomorrow, the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, will talk in front congress. Will it tip his hand and explains how dovish he will be and will market participants feel how much he is ready to cut the federeal rate and create currency via QEs or other monetary options ?

It's possible the USD will tank, gold and bitcoin will rise.

Within 12 months, there will be a break-out and the trust in USD and EUR will go down, probably abruptly. This is very bullish for BTC.