Analysis

[exstasie]

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.

Nothing so nefarious. By "they" I mean what Richard Wyckoff called "the Composite Man."

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

It ties into something called the maximum pain theory. In a nutshell, the market likes to go where it will inflict the most pain on the most traders and investors at once (that's max pain theory) and the Composite Man is the fictitious whale traders who are trading against us. He's the one accumulating our panic dumps and selling into public exuberance before a crash.

It doesn't matter if the Composite Man (or whales manipulating the price) really exist or not. It all ties into market sentiment. When longs heavily pile into the market deep into an uptrend, when everyone finally agrees the only possible direction is up, no one is left to buy. Max pain theory warrants a crash. It's the Composite Man who is selling to all these greedy top buyers.

The only time Coinbase has ever shown weekly volume this high, it was the week of the 2017 top. That tells a lot about the extreme levels of selling volume we just saw. Meanwhile, Bitmex interest rates are insanely in the negative and Bitfinex shorts have tripled.

That leads me to ask, which direction is maximum pain? Who was buying into all that panic selling the last 2 days? Who was selling into all the panic buying in December 2017? The Composite Man, and you always want to trade with him, not against him.

[1715390144]

1715390144

[1715390144]

1715390144

[Wind_FURY]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha.

The path to FOMO.

[spiderbrain]

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Interesting. Who do you think "they" is this instance?

Are "they" bitcoin's friends or bitcoin enemies? If they are enemies perhaps the whole charade is orchestrated to get a close under the 200WMA and ultimately destroy bitcoin. Then they fight you.

Nothing so nefarious. By "they" I mean what Richard Wyckoff called "the Composite Man."

“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”

It ties into something called the maximum pain theory. In a nutshell, the market likes to go where it will inflict the most pain on the most traders and investors at once (that's max pain theory) and the Composite Man is the fictitious whale traders who are trading against us. He's the one accumulating our panic dumps and selling into public exuberance before a crash.

It doesn't matter if the Composite Man (or whales manipulating the price) really exist or not. It all ties into market sentiment. When longs heavily pile into the market deep into an uptrend, when everyone finally agrees the only possible direction is up, no one is left to buy. Max pain theory warrants a crash. It's the Composite Man who is selling to all these greedy top buyers.

The only time Coinbase has ever shown weekly volume this high, it was the week of the 2017 top. That tells a lot about the extreme levels of selling volume we just saw. Meanwhile, Bitmex interest rates are insanely in the negative and Bitfinex shorts have tripled.

That leads me to ask, which direction is maximum pain? Who was buying into all that panic selling the last 2 days? Who was selling into all the panic buying in December 2017? The Composite Man, and you always want to trade with him, not against him.

Nice analysis.

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already. After every bubble the bottom has been around the peak of the previous bubble, so I imagine there are a lot of old school buy orders waiting around 1100-1500. At those prices it won't need much fiat to make a floor there, and once there's a floor then it''ll likely just ping back up to these kinds of prices again.

[Majormax]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Agree. The technicals of this move are bad.  At the very worst moment of carnage , the 7000 level should have provided support to remain bullish. at the very least 6400 to remain neutral. The very last line is that 3850, below that, price is never going to recover.

The 10 year bullish structure has been nearly destroyed according to the chart. Selling now would be the technical traders unquestioned response. Anything near 6000 would be a chance to get out.

The volume wasn't high enough for a panic low either. That could be expected at around 100% market cap in  a day.

Cautionary note : this is merely TA, but it is a very classic case.

[Majormax]

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already. After every bubble the bottom has been around the peak of the previous bubble, so I imagine there are a lot of old school buy orders waiting around 1100-1500. At those prices it won't need much fiat to make a floor there, and once there's a floor then it''ll likely just ping back up to these kinds of prices again.

That is a good point as well.  The true bottom of each bear market has actually been quite a way above the top of the previous bull , only very close if you consider the transitory spikes.

A second thought to my post above :   Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one.  Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

The alternative is not good and best not to discuss.

[jadenunderhill]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

No, I have some more coins in stash. But I'll try to sell more. It would be great to see short bounce to 7K or so. . IMHO there will be 2500-2800 in the end of this year. So, I'll buy som back. Also I'll keep few coins for better times..
PS: Sold another 2 coins just now.

[jadenunderhill]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha.

The path to FOMO.

Good guess, but no))

[exstasie]

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.

I would look at Coinbase, much bigger market. The week isn't even done and this is the second highest on record. On Bitstamp, it was the biggest daily volume since the February 2018 v-bottom so not inconsequential.

A second thought to my post above :   Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one.  Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

Here's an idea based on Masterluc's triangle: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305

[dragonvslinux]

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.

I would look at Coinbase, much bigger market. The week isn't even done and this is the second highest on record. On Bitstamp, it was the biggest daily volume since the February 2018 v-bottom so not inconsequential.

Persnally I'd pay attention to both, based on Bitstamp being a "OG" market with lower volume and Coinbase being a much newer market having higher volume from retailers and some institutional investment. I consider the different to be CB is "newer money" coming in/out the market, while Bitstamp is "older money" or "older investors".

Of course this is a somewhat of a generalization, but both sets of different volume are very relevant to me. For example at the moment I believe there is proportionately more selling from newer investors, than older investors, which I find reassuring to say the least. This inverse would be highly problematic in my opinion.

[Bossian]

Yes, I've sold 3 coins at 5500 today

And what are your plans now? Leave for good? Come back another day and buy back in lower?

If you're considering timing it that has plenty of space for it to go wrong. If you're gone for good then I hope you made a nice profit.

He didn't reply. He might be very busy calling his/her exchange/bank to cancel his/her wire transfer, and trying to get all his fiat back to his/her exchange account, and buy Bitcoin again. Hahaha.

The path to FOMO.

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.

Bitcoin price should navigate between the 3.5k range and 6.4k range for a while. In the long term I am pretty sure we will test the 6.4k resistance again, in the short term wouldn't be surprised to see the 3.5k support tested too. Second semester of 2019 we saw the price stay for a while between 6.4k and 10.5k, now we are in 3.5k - 6.4k.
I am very curious to see how Bitcoin price will react if we go near 6.4k. If we break above then it's easy money until 8-9k (lower high compared to 10.5k).
My opinion.

[Bossian]

Very quiet day at work today so I had a read at the first 25 pages. Epic post below:



December 4, 2013, Bitcoin around 1k USD, and next month would start to fall, until 2015 when it will trade around 200 USD.

If Masterluc was back in 2016, price started around 400 USD... and the 2017 run we all know  

Also notable points from these 2013 posts: people seem to be much less emotionally involved and much more tolerant towards bearish opinions. This is 2020, you cannot post bearish opinions without being called dumb or retarded, or both. That's the current era we are living in. How times have changed...  


This was epic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.500 masterluc sold exactly at the top of the 2013 bubble, amazing.

[Majormax]

..
Also notable points from these 2013 posts: people seem to be much less emotionally involved and much more tolerant towards bearish opinions. This is 2020, you cannot post bearish opinions without being called dumb or retarded, or both. That's the current era we are living in. How times have changed...  


....

Yes. That in itself is a very bearish signal. Price is going lower.

[Wind_FURY]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Agree. The technicals of this move are bad.  At the very worst moment of carnage , the 7000 level should have provided support to remain bullish. at the very least 6400 to remain neutral. The very last line is that 3850, below that, price is never going to recover.

The 10 year bullish structure has been nearly destroyed according to the chart. Selling now would be the technical traders unquestioned response. Anything near 6000 would be a chance to get out.

The volume wasn't high enough for a panic low either. That could be expected at around 100% market cap in  a day.

Cautionary note : this is merely TA, but it is a very classic case.

When my friends want the latest news about Bitcoin, I say "don't buy, it's dead, it's a just meme, it's a quick path to losses", WHILE I'm thinking about taking loans from them to buy Bitcoin. Hahaha.

[songsunling]

Maybe we can see the bull market comes back in the end of 2020.

[dragonvslinux]

It would take a weekly close under the 200 SMA ... still Friday the 13th for the cavalry to arrive.

Not sure if we can rely on any indicators now. The goal is IMO to make hodlers puke their coins before the next bull. How low and how long it will take is anybody's guess.

The market has always historically respected the 200-week MA. Holding below it will indicate something has changed.

I agree with you but if they take it too far, they are playing with fire. Overlapping into pre-2017 ranges and destroying the 10 year bullish structure isn't something the market is likely to easily recover from. Like Masterluc said, "the music will fade."

If the $3,850 low can hold, especially with a V-bottom, then the triangle scenario looks good. The proportions look great at the moment.

Agree. The technicals of this move are bad.  At the very worst moment of carnage , the 7000 level should have provided support to remain bullish. at the very least 6400 to remain neutral. The very last line is that 3850, below that, price is never going to recover.

The 10 year bullish structure has been nearly destroyed according to the chart. Selling now would be the technical traders unquestioned response. Anything near 6000 would be a chance to get out.

The volume wasn't high enough for a panic low either. That could be expected at around 100% market cap in  a day.

Cautionary note : this is merely TA, but it is a very classic case.

When my friends want the latest news about Bitcoin, I say "don't buy, it's dead, it's a just meme, it's a quick path to losses", WHILE I'm thinking about taking loans from them to buy Bitcoin. Hahaha.

I had a similar conversation with a friend recently, I told him "I don't think it's the best time to buy right now"... at the same time he granted me a loan to buy more 
I made it clear I didn't need the money, it was to put it into Bitcoin, simply to buy more soon rather than later. He agreed to it, friends are great 
If you're not thinking about getting a loan at these prices, I think you might regret it by summer time Bitcoin under $5K is loan material imo.
Not financial advise.

[Bossian]

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

[exstasie]

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

[podyx]

The weekly closes in 11 hours.

If it's true, this is the perfect buying opportunity

[drays]

The volume on Bitstamp yesterday wasn't that amazing, although I feel like we're warming up for a bottom, and perhaps it's happened already.

I would look at Coinbase, much bigger market. The week isn't even done and this is the second highest on record. On Bitstamp, it was the biggest daily volume since the February 2018 v-bottom so not inconsequential.

A second thought to my post above :   Likely the bear market of 2018-202x is not yet over. A slow consolidation above 3800, or a spike down to sub-2000 might be the end. ...but then we would have to go through crypto winter, and it would be a long one.  Possible 2025 before full recovery. That is not so far out of line with the lengthening cycles.

Here's an idea based on Masterluc's triangle: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54020305#msg54020305

I was looking for the best place to look for volume too, and thought CMC could be one, as it shows volume accumulated over tens of multiple exchanges. So if we look at the volume on the chart here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the volume on these days (March 13-14) is unmatched - way more than ever.

Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Anyone knows a better place to see the overall worldwide BTC volume? Would appreciate if someone point to it.

[figmentofmyass]

I was looking for the best place to look for volume too, and thought CMC could be one, as it shows volume accumulated over tens of multiple exchanges. So if we look at the volume on the chart here: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the volume on these days (March 13-14) is unmatched - way more than ever.

Not sure how trustworthy those numbers are though. Anyone knows a better place to see the overall worldwide BTC volume? Would appreciate if someone point to it.

i wouldn't trust CMC's numbers. i would look at the top "real volume" exchanges as listed here (although i'm not sure if poloniex is legit anymore either): https://twitter.com/BitwiseInvest/status/1109114665240616962

the market saw monumental volume across the board. if that were the only metric that mattered, i'd say we obviously bottomed already.