Analysis

[Majormax]

How probably is for the Bitcoin to do the opposite of what the public expects, and don't crash with the stocks, when they do crash?

We're in a phase where the world is looking for confidence, and there isn't a lot to be found. I see no reason why BTC would be any more confident in the face of a global shit than stocks. This isn't one economy wrecking itself, it's everyone everywhere. That means pensions faltering, jobs going, taxes rising.

Yep, nothing really escapes big economic contractions. Some assets fare better than others, but ultimately they all face the same downward pressures, especially in this dollar debt-inflated economy.

Now, ranting aside, I would expect the stock market to crash pretty soon, or at least suffer a lot, for a long time. Does it mean Bitcoin has to do the same, just because it correlates to stocks..? I am trying to find reasons why it shouldn't, but the only one coming to my mind is - as everyone expects Bitcoin to follow stocks, maybe it wouldn't follow them just because of that?

BTC will probably diverge bullishly at some point, but my guess is it won't be until after the mid-term economic picture becomes clearer. A V-shaped recovery is out of the question now, but depression and stagflation are both on the table. Each would have very different outcomes for BTC.

Don't know about the stock market : The game there is not really open to free trade so much, being led by derivatives HFT.

However, tend to agree on BTC.  It should break out at some point, but this is not it, not yet a while. The momentum is far too sudden. There is very strong overhead resistance at 13500,  10500, and now this spike looks like it could create another in the 9000's, which would be very bearish. Only a sustained move above 10500 would be a real positive, but that might be some time away.

The upcoming halving is creating FOMO, and that will be over very soon.

[chunglam]

New comment from masterluc:
Apr 30: Daily SMA 200 revisited and broken up with healthy long green daily candle. I am now waiting uptrend line (@10000) to be broken to return midterm absolutely bullish bias.
Unless that I keep in mind "Bearish outcome" related idea because of last very painful dip.

[leyton11]

Old topic closed. lucif nickname rebranded. Analysis reloaded.

Determining trend.... Mid term trend is undefined. Market makes decision, and if you are looking for trading advise - here is it: Stay away from trading now, keep your funds in most comfortable position for you - fiat or btc.

The last figure I drew was this potential triangle.

No, I think this is a golden time for trading, short-term trading and long-term speculation. At this point we have big waves and we can trade margin to make more money. And this is also a good time for long-term speculation, bitcoin halving is going to happen and it is expected that we will have a strong year of growth in the crypto market. The reason I say that is that people are thinking that the market will collapse soon. It may sound strange, but it's the whales' plan, they always make the market go against the crowd.

[Millionero]

New comment from masterluc:
Apr 30: Daily SMA 200 revisited and broken up with healthy long green daily candle. I am now waiting uptrend line (@10000) to be broken to return midterm absolutely bullish bias.
Unless that I keep in mind "Bearish outcome" related idea because of last very painful dip.

link please.

people are thinking that the market will collapse soon. It may sound strange, but it's the whales' plan, they always make the market go against the crowd.

Yes, but did whales manipulate people to experience fear of collapse?  Or are the crowd simply mired in ignorance like medieval peons, while the whales know which way the wind blows and act accordingly.

[chunglam]

@Millionero
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

[chunglam]

masterluc just update that post, scroll down a bit

[Millionero]

masterluc just update that post, scroll down a bit

thanks, always love to see new masterluc posts

[Wind_FURY]

Are you talking about the daily chart or the weekly chart? Because in the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price has never stayed long below the 200-day SMA.

Dips near, or below 200-day SMA = Buy the dip, and HODL.

I suppose you mean the 200-week SMA above..?

It was the 200-day SMA used in a daily chart, converted into a weekly chart. Yes, you're right! 200-week SMA. Hahaha.

The 200-day MA only provided temporary resistance in October 2019 and this past January before significant moves above it. I'm not sure if bouncing off it automatically means we are hell bound. I guess that would mean $1,800?

I have been speculating for a while about a failure off the 0.618 and 200-day MA ~$8K. Honestly though, the price action has been very choppy and unpredictable for the entire month of April. A lot is probably riding on what the stock market does given the recent correlation.

Are you talking about the daily chart or the weekly chart?

Discussions above moving averages can be confusing. That's why I always say things like "200-day" or "200-week" to distinguish between time frames.

Because in the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price has never stayed long below the 200-day SMA.

I bet big on the 200-week MA holding in 2018 and this past March. Definitely historical "buy the dip" moments. The 200-day MA is a different story. Lots of fluctuation above and below. We spent over a year below it after the 2017 bubble popped.

The 200 weekly MA was previously attacked violently and it bounced. Still find it hard to believe that Bitcoin won't break it next and stay below at least for a few months after 10 years   

After 10 years, Bitcoin would be enjoying 6 digits.

[exstasie]

New comment from masterluc:
Apr 30: Daily SMA 200 revisited and broken up with healthy long green daily candle. I am now waiting uptrend line (@10000) to be broken to return midterm absolutely bullish bias.
Unless that I keep in mind "Bearish outcome" related idea because of last very painful dip.

Reasonable. I can't bet on the bubble scenario myself, not yet. I think it's more likely we keep building out this consolidating range. The proportions and character of the sub-waves really supports the idea of a 2018-2021 triangle.



My trend line is closer to $11K, although in Elliott Wave, breaking that line isn't the determining factor anyway. The B-D line will form the upper bound of the triangle, and Wave D hasn't completed yet. We could even see some short-lived shenanigans above the $10.5K pivot and still come down to build out Wave E.

[adaseb]

He seems to be correct on many of his predictions. I remember back in late 2018 he said that he was waiting for the 200 WMA to hold and provide support which it did. And even though he said the same thing on the 200 WMA holding again in March 2020, it had a huge wick which ended up in me having to hold a huge losing position.

I saw that it touched the 200WMA and moved away from it, so I bought at maybe $100 more, I think the 200WMA was like $5700 and I bought $5800 or so. Then to my surprise the stock market started to crash and we started to head toward  $5K then $4K and went to about $3.5K. Luckily I bought more at $4K and ended up with a decent average of $5K however it was very scary how fast it was going down that day. When the weekly candle finally closed on the 200WMA, it was pretty bullish so I kept the position open.

[exstasie]

What are you saying? Dragonfly after downtrend = bullish reversal sign?

Only the first dragonfly you labelled is actually a dragonfly. The second and third have huge candle bodies and closed in the bottom half of the bar, so not even close.

A Dragonfly Doji is a type of candlestick pattern that can signal a potential reversal in price to the downside or upside, depending on past price action. It's formed when the asset's high, open, and close prices are the same. The long lower shadow suggests that there was aggressive selling during the period of the candle, but since the price closed near the open it shows that buyers were able to absorb the selling and push the price back up.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dragonfly-doji.asp

[mikeywith]

The B-D line will form the upper bound of the triangle, and Wave D hasn't completed yet. We could even see some short-lived shenanigans above the $10.5K pivot and still come down to build out Wave E.

Nice chart as usual. I draw the triangle a little differently, and I don't see us going to 10.5k, in fact, we got rejected by the downtrend at 9.5k, and the only way, for now, is a correction to the south, somewhere around 8.2k


 

Anyway, do you mind explaining what does your chart suggests anyway?


edited: exstasie's explanation on the dragonfly candles is correct and sufficient.

[Wind_FURY]

New comment from masterluc:
Apr 30: Daily SMA 200 revisited and broken up with healthy long green daily candle. I am now waiting uptrend line (@10000) to be broken to return midterm absolutely bullish bias.
Unless that I keep in mind "Bearish outcome" related idea because of last very painful dip.

Reasonable. I can't bet on the bubble scenario myself, not yet. I think it's more likely we keep building out this consolidating range. The proportions and character of the sub-waves really supports the idea of a 2018-2021 triangle.

Bitcoin did reach its ATH on 2017, it's on the course/schedule to follow the same path after the next halving in my opinion, but with maybe a difference of a few months.

[chunglam]

New comment from masterluc -
May 8: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.

[Majormax]

New comment from masterluc -
May 8: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.

Yes.. That has been the case for 3-6 months. 10500 was rejected twice and now forms the toughest resistance point.

10000 is also in the process of testing, and if it is rejected, then the bearish scenario is intact for some  time.

10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see.

[exstasie]

New comment from masterluc -
May 8: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.

Yes.. That has been the case for 3-6 months. 10500 was rejected twice and now forms the toughest resistance point.

10000 is also in the process of testing, and if it is rejected, then the bearish scenario is intact for some  time.

10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see.

Bears don't look impressive yet, but it's possible we're slowly forming a multi-day top similar to August 2019 or February 2020.

Sentiment has turned strongly bullish with all the halving hype. Bitfinex longs outnumber shorts 4.66 to 1 now. Bitmex swaps are consistently holding above spot, the Fear & Greed index is showing "greed." I'm afraid to even predict a bearish outcome because going down feels impossible (a top indicator in and of itself).

I'm a big believer in maximum pain theory, and with sentiment this bullish, it's beginning to feel like the direction of maximum pain is down, not up.

I've closed my longs. Time to let the bulls and bears fight over $10K, and $10.5K. I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.

[Globb0]

I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.

What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it?

[exstasie]

I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.

What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it?

Closing longs, waiting for a new trading setup. Cash/stablecoins on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. I don't like to short strong uptrends like this.

It partly just means not having my head in the clouds. Many people in my feed are already counting their millions, planning on lambos. They don't expect a crash at all. When the price dumps 10-20% in a day (as happened during those crashes mentioned above) a lot of them will panic and will eventually get shaken out.

I plan to be on the opposite side of that, buying the blood.

[Majormax]

I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.

What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it?

Closing longs, waiting for a new trading setup. Cash/stablecoins on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. I don't like to short strong uptrends like this.

It partly just means not having my head in the clouds. Many people in my feed are already counting their millions, planning on lambos. They don't expect a crash at all. When the price dumps 10-20% in a day (as happened during those crashes mentioned above) a lot of them will panic and will eventually get shaken out.

I plan to be on the opposite side of that, buying the blood.

Sensible move.  In that context, the next downwave could see sub 7000 again, so there is a lot of meat for shorters. However, shorting BTC is an exceptionally hazardous trade, so waiting for long entry is the safe bet.

Putting it from the other side of the coin, 10k is one of the worst possible levels to buy at this time . That remains so 'until its not' , at which point shorts get slaughtered, but I don't think we are there yet.

[dragonvsandroid]

I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.

What does being ready mean in this context? short the falling price? or wait the dip to long it?

Closing longs, waiting for a new trading setup. Cash/stablecoins on exchanges, waiting to buy the dip. I don't like to short strong uptrends like this.

It partly just means not having my head in the clouds. Many people in my feed are already counting their millions, planning on lambos. They don't expect a crash at all. When the price dumps 10-20% in a day (as happened during those crashes mentioned above) a lot of them will panic and will eventually get shaken out.

I plan to be on the opposite side of that, buying the blood.

My thoughts exactly. Even with price moving 1K higher than my closed longs, I'm also expecting another shakeout as ia the nature of volitile crypto markets. Price is bullish but still facing strong resistance is the main concern right now. Reaching 10K makes me more curious about 8K support level that will now be a 20% pull-back if occurs, instead of being rejected by 9K area as I had previously expected (and got tapped out shorting with a fortunately tight stop loss). But either way, I also prefer buying into capitulation in bull trends than breakouts, as there's a lot more gain to be had for starters.
Buy red sell green.