[FAILED]Butterfly Labs 30 day countdown to the end of September

[joeventura]

From the COO of BFL Josh Zerlan:

Obviously we haven't made the October target for being done. We are getting close though... Very close. Looking at our remaining orders looks much better than two months ago.

We had another large day today, final tally 1027 shipped today at last count. I think we might start on the 50/25s next week I hope and those should go pretty quickly.

#END#


Update Joshy:

1.  "Done" is when you get the the 7 1/2 months of orders that haven't shipped yet out the door.
What you are shooting for is some artificial milestone you have set for yourself. We here call it when the poor bastards who paid twice the price start getting their paperweights.

2. So you looked at the remaining orders? That would have been advised 9 months ago then perhaps your "estimates" would have been more accurate

3. If you shipped 1027 units today then you are still in a quagmire of orders and you may clear April (as opposed to being "done") in two weeks ^tm to a month


Jalapenos, Little Singles and Singles, the Block Erupters of the current era.


Revenue on a Jalapeno that cost $274 with free electricity is $72.58 by October 2014 then it stops.

That is assuming difficulty increase of 120% a month.

If difficulty slows to 60% a month then it goes to $103 in revenue then stops.

BTC would have to go to $800 today for a Jalapeno to break even in a year.

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[joeventura]

They are clicking off just one day of product a day,
That will likely let up, but my prediction for ALL backlogged orders to be shipped is:

March 1st, 2014

Their promise to finish 65nm stock before they ship Monarchs will be broken.

You read it here first.


Wednesday, November 6, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 5 gh/s: April 28, 2013

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: April 3, 2013

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: April 10, 2013 pay date

MiniRigs: June 14 (1st 500 gh/s), April 3 (2nd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Mar 2013 MiniRig orders complete.

[Bicknellski]

They are clicking off just one day of product a day,
That will likely let up, but my prediction for ALL backlogged orders to be shipped is:

March 1st, 2014

Their promise to finish 65nm stock before they ship Monarchs will be broken.

You read it here first.


Wednesday, November 6, 2013 Shipping Update

Jalapenos 5 gh/s: April 28, 2013

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: April 3, 2013

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: April 10, 2013 pay date

MiniRigs: June 14 (1st 500 gh/s), April 3 (2nd 500 gh/s) and All June 2012-Mar 2013 MiniRig orders complete.

You think they will ship a Monarch at all? Not a Luke Jr stay in the lab shipment but to actual customers in the real world.

[joeventura]

Yes I am sure they will ship.

Question is "when"

[joeventura]

Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: March 11, 2013   No Days

Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Feb. 7, 2013   1 Day

Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: Mar. 5, 2013 pay date   1 Day

MiniRigs: February 6 (1st 500 gh/s) January 6 (3rd 500 g/s), and All June-Dec, 2012 MiniRig orders complete.


March 2013 is like June 23rd all over again.

Here is your new prediction of when Josh and the monkeys will clear April orders.


Ready?.............

December 2nd 2013

I will tell you what Josh does not have the balls to tell you.

and when they reach that goal in December they will still be backlogged 8 months.

I believe BFL Overall 65nm Backlog will likely not be cleared until next summer.

I also believe Josh knows this and is intentionally not sharing it.

Looks like April orders will be cleared between November 15th and November 18th.

2 1/2 months past the original prediction from Joshy.

He claims they have been shipping between 600-1000 units a day now.
On that premise, being 2.5 month late in his initial prediction, he was expecting to ship 2000-2500 per day to get done by the end of August?

Hmmm   really?

If there are degrees of being wrong, Geez this guy is the Olympian of Wrong

[Bicknellski]

If there are degrees of being wrong, Geez this guy is the Olympian of Wrong

[joeventura]

I guess it was better for my prediction to be off by a real two weeks than a Josh "Two Weeks ^tm"

[Fiyasko]

hey joe, Could you put a nice shiny Negative countdown clock, so everyone can see Precisely just how wrong josh has been, For the 2nd year in a row.
He's like what... 70days past his original estimate so far?, No wait, hangon, Didnt he say it would be cleared by the end of August?

[joeventura]

hey joe, Could you put a nice shiny Negative countdown clock, so everyone can see Precisely just how wrong josh has been, For the 2nd year in a row.
He's like what... 70days past his original estimate so far?, No wait, hangon, Didnt he say it would be cleared by the end of August?

Yes first he said end of August,

Then on Sept 11th he said end of September

When he missed September he said about "2 weeks or so" to get April cleared,

Gave him until 3rd week of October for "2 weeks or so" April still not cleared.

2 weeks into November we are almost there.

So if you are keeping count, it will be about 110 days he missed it by if they are done by Monday November 18th.

And they still maintain their trophy of being 6+ months behind on shipping.


For more math:

In the last 110 days they have shipped 308 days of product, for an average of 2.8 days of product per day of shipping
(that's assuming 7 days a week shipping)

They have about 190 days of orders left to ship which I predict they will have done by early to mid January

[Puppet]

I say they will be done earlier. Not because I expect shipping to pick up pace, but because order volume will have dropped significantly and these 65nm miners are beginning to get pointless. As a result many of these orders will be converted in to 28nm orders that will be delivered, well maybe 12 months from here by which time they will have become equally pointless and perhaps there will be an upgrade program to their 20nm chip .

[joeventura]

I say they will be done earlier. Not because I expect shipping to pick up pace, but because order volume will have dropped significantly and these 65nm miners are beginning to get pointless. As a result many of these orders will be converted in to 28nm orders that will be delivered, well maybe 12 months from here by which time they will have become equally pointless and perhaps there will be an upgrade program to their 20nm chip .

You may very well be right.

[Fiyasko]

hey joe, Could you put a nice shiny Negative countdown clock, so everyone can see Precisely just how wrong josh has been, For the 2nd year in a row.
He's like what... 70days past his original estimate so far?, No wait, hangon, Didnt he say it would be cleared by the end of August?

Yes first he said end of August,
Then on Sept 11th he said end of September
When he missed September he said about "2 weeks or so" to get April cleared,
Gave him until 3rd week of October for "2 weeks or so" April still not cleared.
2 weeks into November we are almost there.
So if you are keeping count, it will be about 110 days he missed it by if they are done by Monday November 18th.
And they still maintain their trophy of being 6+ months behind on shipping.

For more math:

In the last 110 days they have shipped 308 days of product, for an average of 2.8 days of product per day of shipping
(that's assuming 7 days a week shipping)

They have about 190 days of orders left to ship which I predict they will have done by early to mid January

Yeah, this is the kind of information i want turned into a clock that runs in reverse and continues to add days/hours to the clock until the backlog is Actually cleared,
It would be a GREAT deterrant for anyone who wants to order from BFL to see a big clock in the negative showing "Hey we missed our estimate again, Again, heres how badly we missed it"

[Syke]

Josh just did it again. He predicted they'll clear all orders "in two weeks".

[joeventura]

Here is the actual prediction from Josh:


A word about customer service and shipping.
We are aware of the customer service issues surrounding BFL at the current time. I would like to apologize for the delay that some people experience when trying to contact the customer service team.

We are working through the queue as quickly as possible for both shipping, RMA, general customer service questions and shipping. At this time BFL employees over 100 people to handle all aspects of our operation. Given the nature of this business it is difficult to find competent, intelligent people for some of the more backed up areas, such as customer service. While we have been able to hire an adequate number of people for shipping and assembly, due to the requirements of customer service personnel to have at least a rudimentary understanding of bitcoin it is very difficult to find people able to work the customer service side effectively, especially when you are dealing with not only bitcoin, but bitcoin mining which adds just one more layer of complexity to the situation.

I realize that this is no excuse for inadequate customer service and I am not trying to duck our responsibility to our customers but I do want to at least explain the current situation in our offices.

Believe it or not we are constantly trying to improve and get caught up with our customer service and order shipping. We have shipped nearly 40,000 miners so far with just under another 10,000 to go. Our shipping and assembly teams ship between 600 and 1000 units per day. We are almost to the end of the minirig order queue which will free up a lot of resources for manufacture and shipping of the other product lines. I expect to be done shipping with all back orders, including those that have ordered in the past few weeks, within 3 weeks, most likely sooner.

Again, there is no excuse for poor customer service and I am very sorry and apologize deeply to those that have received less than pleasing customer service response times. It is one area we at BFL are going to be focusing on in the coming weeks. I can't promise things will be fixed overnight but it is an area we are very aware of and take very seriously. We have learned a lot over the past year and we are taking those lessons forward. Our growing pains have been immense and our rate of growth has been amazing, but with that has come the problems of scaling a small startup to something as large as BFL. Until now all of our energy and focus has been on getting the miners out to our customers as fast as we possibly can. We are slowly getting a handle on things and with the conclusion of the order queues being shipped we will be poised to really make sweeping, positive changes going forward.

Again let me offer my apologies but we are working on improving your customer experience. You are not being ignored and we care about listening to what you have to say. All I ask, and I realize it is a lot to ask at this point, is for a little more patience. We are nearly at the end of the tunnel and the future looks very bright indeed


#END#

So they don't allow timers anymore so we are counting down to December 4th 2013.

[Xian01]

I realize that this is no excuse for inadequate customer service and I am not trying to duck our responsibility to our customer

 Oh, just fuck off, Josh.

 You've made a career out of ducking responsibility and fucking people in the ass (unlubed) while deriving orgasmic pleasure from your power-tripping. This "apology" seems about as genuine and honest as your previous shipping estimates.

 If you want to take responsibility for your actions, do the honorable thing, quit your job at Butterfly Labs, and pass the mantle to a pro.

 Maybe then the healing can begin, but so long as you remain at Butterfly Labs, your company is tainted by your unforgivable historical contempt and arrogance.

 You should have at least kept your commitment to follow through with Seppuku back in April.

 https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/632-getting-ready-april.html#post9395

[Puppet]

I dont recall Josh ever using that tone before. If you wouldnt know him any better, you might even think he is sincere. Makes me wonder, what changed? Are they finally getting some heat from the FTC or something?

[joeventura]

I dont recall Josh ever using that tone before. If you wouldnt know him any better, you might even think he is sincere. Makes me wonder, what changed? Are they finally getting some heat from the FTC or something?

SALES...........STOPPED

[BuckNaked]

Are they finally getting some heat from the FTC or something?

Well, I did my best to fuel the fire.  I complained to the FTC, the Kansas City BBB, the Kansas State Attorney General, the Johnson County District Attorney.

I would speculate that when the number of complaints reached 100, the Kansas Attorney General started taking a serious interest.  That is going to be an uncomfortable situation for Josh, given his background.

[Flying Hellfish]

I dont recall Josh ever using that tone before. If you wouldnt know him any better, you might even think he is sincere. Makes me wonder, what changed? Are they finally getting some heat from the FTC or something?

SALES...........STOPPED

You mean that somehow the mantra of fire your customers is not keeping the sales funnel full?  I guess coming on BTC talk and being a cunt is not drumming up enough pre orders, maybe he should try harder!

[joeventura]