[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[Vigil]

OK if we sell these shares Ukyo wants all the proceeds divided equally not us first and everyone else later. Now do the maths. I don't know how much he owes and to how many people.

I've done a little digging and figure that if Ken managed to sell all Ukyo's shares at 0.01btc per share, then after we recouped 106btc for ActM and paid the other 2214btc to the community, there would still be just over 3500btc outstanding that Ukyo would still owe the community.

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

[1714672641]

1714672641

[1714672641]

1714672641

[minerpart]

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

That's a strange conclusion. I guess you mean you don't think there will be enough volume on CT because today it is dead?

Well, buyers follow the market. In other words, if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

[zumzero]

OK if we sell these shares Ukyo wants all the proceeds divided equally not us first and everyone else later. Now do the maths. I don't know how much he owes and to how many people.

I've done a little digging and figure that if Ken managed to sell all Ukyo's shares at 0.01btc per share, then after we recouped 106btc for ActM and paid the other 2214btc to the community, there would still be just over 3500btc outstanding that Ukyo would still owe the community.

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

Make sure you don't cut your lip and chip a tooth on that cracked half empty glass of yours Vigil.  

[JoTheKhan]

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

That's a strange conclusion. I guess you mean you don't think there will be enough volume on CT because today it is dead?

Well, buyers follow the market. In other words, if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

Now would be a decent time to get some Crypto Trade Shares. The transaction fees and therefore the dividends will definitely be much higher once ACTM gets on there. - I know this off topic, my apologies.

But anyways, yeah I think we'll see huge sell blocks pop up with some buying around  > .002 - .001 and we will possibly (most likely)  go down to .0005. I doubt shares will see .004+ (if that) Until Ken's next big update.

[Vigil]

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

That's a strange conclusion. I guess you mean you don't think there will be enough volume on CT because today it is dead?

Well, buyers follow the market. In other words, if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

Right... if and when that happens. But you are looking at at least a couple months form now. You will be lucky to see .5 BTC per day volume on there until then.

[cheaptar]

if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.  Start with an absurd premise, get an absurd conclusion

[JoTheKhan]

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

That's a strange conclusion. I guess you mean you don't think there will be enough volume on CT because today it is dead?

Well, buyers follow the market. In other words, if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

Right... if and when that happens. But you are looking at at least a couple months form now. You will be lucky to see .5 BTC per day volume on there until then.

Nope you'll see more. There are some delusional people in here willing to buy for quite a bit > .0005 and there are plenty of people looking to sell.

[shadallion]

Fuck that. If the guy played with, lost and now owes monies then get it out of him in anyway possible. I don't know why anyone is arguing about or defending this sheister.

+1.  Fuck you, Ukyo.

[minerpart]

we will possibly (most likely)  go down to .0005.

I respect your opinion but look at it this way.

If ACtM can mine 1% of the bitcoins mined in 2014 - in other words if we can take and hold 1.25% of the global hash by beginning April - then we will mine 13,140 coins in 2014.
At current prices that is 13Mill dollars.

But lets assume an average price of Bitcoin of 5k USD in 2014 (10k USD target is widely talked about now for 2014) - so we will generate 5,000x13,140=65.7Million USD.
So Holding just 1.25% of global hash from April will make us 65.7 Mill USD in 2014.

Lets round that down to 50Mill in pure profit from mining.
Add 40Mill USD profit from chip orders for our 28nm chip in 2014
Add 10 Mill profit from chip orders for our 55nm chip
Add 25 Mill profit in miner sales for 2014.

You have a yearly profit of 125Mill USD.

Now to repay 0.0025BTC per share (10Mill publicly held shares) you need about 25Mill USD in todays price. But taking into account price rise of BTC through the year by say begining Q3 we would have 0.0025 paid back in full at a cost of 50Mill USD.

So the next 75Mill USD profit will be split between all shares (25Mill shares) giving a further div payout for the year of around 0.0006.

So in total each publicly held share will recieve approx  0.0031BTC in divs in 2014.


Now - a fair share price can be worked out when you know the expected total yearly divs. That's how professional investors value a stock.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield

So if 0.0031 is paid to each share in a year then the listed share price is expected to be a certain multiple of that dividend payout. So for example if I get 1 dollar from a share each year I would be happy to pay 10dollars to hold that share - that's a 10% return and you won't get that in a bank. So a share price of 10x the annual dividend would be reasonable to many investors if the company was viewed as being on a sure footing.

In summary then: Predicted sales plus 1.25% of hash through 2014 gives an average share price of 0.031 BTC in 2014.

All IMO. Let's have a heated debate?

[knybe]

if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.  Start with an absurd premise, get an absurd conclusion

Wow what original noob cliché fodder. Ignore in full effect.

[Vigil]

minerpart, you are stuartuk.

[minerpart]

No but we have both looked at this and both worked it out with similar results. He and I both agree with this method of valuing the shares and want everyone to understand this. It is what professionals do to value any companies stock.

Let's talk about this valuation method.

[Bitdust]

if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.  Start with an absurd premise, get an absurd conclusion

Wow what original noob cliché fodder. Ignore in full effect.

As girthy as your ignore list may be, your bragging contributes nothing to the topic of this thread - the tragicomic virtual entity called Active Mining Belize.
Kindly delete your posts.  If you can't stop yourself from posting altogether, do stay on topic.
thx

[Stuartuk]

Vigil, I'm not him and he's not me. I didn't invent dividend yield analysis but thanks for suggesting I might have.

Are you Bruce Willis?

[minerpart]

lol 

Hi Stu

[MilkyWayMasta]

http://www.tigerdirect.com/bitcoin/

Advertising Butterfly Labs, how awesome would it be to get ActiveMining equipment on TigerDirect.com when ACTM is ready?

[Bitdust]

No but we have both looked at this and both worked it out with similar results. He and I both agree with this method of valuing the shares and want everyone to understand this. It is what professionals do to value any companies stock.

Let's talk about this valuation method.

While usage of "we" could be written off as pompous royal plural, you consequently refer to yourself as "He and I."  That is an unmistakable sign of pathology.
Dial 911 and stay on the line until help arrives.

[minerpart]

Thanks, I will.




Pompous? How very DARE you.

[Vigil]

Your writing style and verbiage are exactly the same.

[lobbes]

we will possibly (most likely)  go down to .0005.

I respect your opinion but look at it this way.

If ACtM can mine 1% of the bitcoins mined in 2014 - in other words if we can take and hold 1.25% of the global hash by beginning April - then
...

This seems like a risky premise. I'm no expert, but isn't it safe to say that mining with 28nm even as early as February wouldn't make ROI? Nevermind the fact that ActM is just now taping out the 55nm.