boumalo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
|
|
June 17, 2014, 05:27:55 PM |
|
Congrats, keep playing I'd like someone to post a 400k 4M or 40M win
|
|
|
|
snarlpill
|
|
June 17, 2014, 08:58:56 PM |
|
I asked wetsuit before on here, months ago, if anybody had ever hit 10,000 in Free Roll or 8888 in the multiplier. I don't think he ever responded, but I would still be interested to know. I like low-chance wins, like when you see somebody on just-dice hitting under 5 at 5% chance and winning big.
|
|
|
|
wetsuit (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 981
Merit: 1026
|
|
June 18, 2014, 12:10:21 PM |
|
I asked wetsuit before on here, months ago, if anybody had ever hit 10,000 in Free Roll or 8888 in the multiplier. I don't think he ever responded, but I would still be interested to know. I like low-chance wins, like when you see somebody on just-dice hitting under 5 at 5% chance and winning big.
Honestly, I do not know how many have hit the big number because I do not keep a record of rolls to keep the database load low. At 500 million rolls, keeping record of each would increase overhead by a lot.
|
|
|
|
boumalo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
|
|
June 18, 2014, 02:07:21 PM |
|
I asked wetsuit before on here, months ago, if anybody had ever hit 10,000 in Free Roll or 8888 in the multiplier. I don't think he ever responded, but I would still be interested to know. I like low-chance wins, like when you see somebody on just-dice hitting under 5 at 5% chance and winning big.
Honestly, I do not know how many have hit the big number because I do not keep a record of rolls to keep the database load low. At 500 million rolls, keeping record of each would increase overhead by a lot. @snarlpill : you can check the biggest jackpot@overall winners on http://freebitco.in/?op=stats
|
|
|
|
energa
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 10
Merit: 0
|
|
June 19, 2014, 06:24:27 PM |
|
Hello
how it works?
its like gambling? or some HYIP offer?
|
|
|
|
deisik
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
|
|
June 19, 2014, 07:03:17 PM |
|
Hello
how it works?
its like gambling? or some HYIP offer?
You can gamble (like in an online casino), but you can also earn free bitcoins once an hour (free faucet). Surely not HYIP or anything related...
|
|
|
|
boumalo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:37:01 AM |
|
Hello
how it works?
its like gambling? or some HYIP offer?
You can gamble (like in an online casino), but you can also earn free bitcoins once an hour (free faucet). Surely not HYIP or anything related... You cannot deposit to gamble though, you can only gamble what you won from the faucets or referrals
|
|
|
|
deisik
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:56:03 AM |
|
Hello
how it works?
its like gambling? or some HYIP offer?
You can gamble (like in an online casino), but you can also earn free bitcoins once an hour (free faucet). Surely not HYIP or anything related... You cannot deposit to gamble though, you can only gamble what you won from the faucets or referrals Yeah, people would lose a lot more!
|
|
|
|
Mayuyu48
|
|
June 20, 2014, 08:11:16 AM |
|
anyone knows how much freebitco pay us for 1 roll in $? it seems they pay us in USD instead BTC, since their payment always change when bitcoin prices change
|
|
|
|
deisik
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
|
|
June 20, 2014, 08:14:39 AM |
|
anyone knows how much freebitco pay us for 1 roll in $? it seems they pay us in USD instead BTC, since their payment always change when bitcoin prices change
Why does it interest you? Evidently, wetsuit buys bitcoins for dollars, that's why the payment keeps constantly changing...
|
|
|
|
natri
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
|
|
June 20, 2014, 05:00:44 PM |
|
Hey guys. I love this faucet however I think it is deceiving in terms of payoff and it's probability of high winnings. Rolling a number between 1-10000 would imply a 1/10000 probability of hitting 10000, however, I think it is much lower. Anyways, I've actually tested the randomness of rolls and the result was that rolls ARE NOT RANDOM, p=0,004 (sample 500, chi-squared). This low p means it's almost impossible that I made error of type I, so rolls actually aren't random at all... More info regarding my testing procedure here: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/28dtaa/wondering_freebitcoin_provably_unfair/So, I would love if the rolls were truly random, even if it meant a lower top prices. Right now, it just seems deceiving to the point of scamming... (btw, I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet, probability of which should be over 75%...) Raising false hopes, huh?
|
|
|
|
Luror
|
|
June 20, 2014, 06:51:06 PM Last edit: June 20, 2014, 07:02:38 PM by Luror |
|
Hey guys. I love this faucet however I think it is deceiving in terms of payoff and it's probability of high winnings. Rolling a number between 1-10000 would imply a 1/10000 probability of hitting 10000, however, I think it is much lower. The probability is actually 1/20000, take a look at my earlier post: With 2889 referrals, I find it odd that I've never gotten a 50% commission from a 0.22500000 BTC payout (10000 lucky number).
I'm in doubts the probability of rolling "10000" is 0.0001 with current algorithm, it would be interesting if someone would do an independent test (run an implementation of current algorithm 1,000,000 times, look at the amount of 10000's). upd Ok, I looked at algorithm closer, and if everything is properly randomized, we can calculate the probability theoretically: "3. The first 8 characters of the hex string are taken and converted to a decimal. 4. This decimal is then divided by 429496.7295 and rounded up to the nearest whole number. 5. This whole number is used as your roll, with the maximum possible value being 10,000." We have hex strings from "00000000" to "ffffffff" (0 to 4294967295), 4294967296 in total. "ffffffff" converts to 4294967295/429496.7295 = 10000. The biggest number which will be rounded to 10000 is 9999.5, back converting it (*429496.7295), we'll get 4294752546.63525. So the numbers from the interval [4294752547, 4294967295] will be converted to "10000", the quantity of them = 4294967295-4294752547+1 = 214749. The probability of getting "10000" = 214749/4294967296 = 0.00005000014789402484893798828125 (~ 1/20000) P.S. After 40,000 rolls one should get 86% probability of rolling "10000" at least once (proof: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-%281-0.00005000014789402484893798828125%29^40000)
|
BTC: 1DzAEtLoFxqmJoNH5ZYHyWxaSNYUGKf2S6
|
|
|
wetsuit (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 981
Merit: 1026
|
|
June 20, 2014, 06:58:36 PM |
|
I shall set up a javascript based roll verifier within a couple of days to hopefully stop all the "your game is not fair" accusations.
|
|
|
|
Luror
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:12:02 PM |
|
This is interesting, it is possible after all that pseudo-random numbers (for seeds) are not quite random. Why didn't you share full test results? It would be nice for someone to repeat it (though it's quite time consuming: 500 hours). (btw, I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet, probability of which should be over 75%...)
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000). [0 - 9885]: ~ 1/20000 + 9885/10000 = 0.98855 [9886 - 9985] ~ (9985-9886+1)/10000 = 0.01 (~ once per 100 rolls) [9986 - 9993] ~ (9993-9986+1)/10000 = 0.0008 (~ once per 1250 rolls) [9994 - 9997] ~ (9997-9994+1)/10000 = 0.0004 (~ once per 2500 rolls) [9998 - 9999] ~ (9999-9998+1)/10000 = 0.0002 (~ once per 5000 rolls) [10000] ~ 1/20000 = 0.00005 (~ once per 20 000 rolls)
sanity check: 0.98855+0.01+0.0008+0.0004+0.0002+0.00005 = 1
|
BTC: 1DzAEtLoFxqmJoNH5ZYHyWxaSNYUGKf2S6
|
|
|
wetsuit (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 981
Merit: 1026
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:16:38 PM |
|
This is interesting, it is possible after all that pseudo-random numbers (for seeds) are not quite random. Why didn't you share full test results? It would be nice for someone to repeat it (though it's quite time consuming: 500 hours). (btw, I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet, probability of which should be over 75%...)
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000). [0 - 9885]: ~ 1/20000 + 9885/10000 = 0.98855 [9886 - 9985] ~ (9985-9886+1)/10000 = 0.01 (~ once per 100 rolls) [9986 - 9993] ~ (9993-9986+1)/10000 = 0.0008 (~ once per 1250 rolls) [9994 - 9997] ~ (9997-9994+1)/10000 = 0.0004 (~ once per 2500 rolls) [9998 - 9999] ~ (9999-9998+1)/10000 = 0.0002 (~ once per 5000 rolls) [10000] ~ 1/20000 = 0.00005 (~ once per 20 000 rolls)
sanity check: 0.98855+0.01+0.0008+0.0004+0.0002+0.00005 = 1 The client seeds are actually generated using javascript entirely on the client side. This is the part of the Javascript code that generates the client seed (can be found in the JS file http://static4.freebitco.in/min/main1403284658.js now but the name of the file changes when I make updates) : charSet = 'ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz0123456789'; var randomString = ''; for (var i = 0; i < 16; i++) { var randomPoz = Math.floor(Math.random() * charSet.length); randomString += charSet.substring(randomPoz,randomPoz+1); } $('#next_client_seed').val(randomString);
|
|
|
|
natri
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:36:44 PM |
|
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000).
That last statement ("I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet") I referred to all of my plays on either freebitco.in and freedoge.co.in which total way over 2000 rolls so by calculating 1-(9993/10000)^2000+ the probability should be 75%+. Ok, lets assume prob for rolling 10k is 1/20000. But by simply checking the freebitco.in WEBSITE STATS, there was currently 538,271,966 played and 394.52490422 BTC earned, if we consider that you can ONLY win top roll price (huge undervaluation) and probability is 1/20000 to earn ONLY 0.1 BTC (undervalued) -> the expected earned value of BTC should be 2700 BTC (way more than 394). And if we say that all ppl were extremely unlucky we can check; variance=npq=538271996*1/20000*19999/20000 sqrt(var)=164 99.7% rule (3 std deviations): Still users should earn at LEAST: 2700-3*164= 2200 BTC, and this is with only top win of 0.1 btc.
|
|
|
|
Luror
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:38:31 PM |
|
This is interesting, it is possible after all that pseudo-random numbers (for seeds) are not quite random. Why didn't you share full test results? It would be nice for someone to repeat it (though it's quite time consuming: 500 hours). (btw, I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet, probability of which should be over 75%...)
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000). [0 - 9885]: ~ 1/20000 + 9885/10000 = 0.98855 [9886 - 9985] ~ (9985-9886+1)/10000 = 0.01 (~ once per 100 rolls) [9986 - 9993] ~ (9993-9986+1)/10000 = 0.0008 (~ once per 1250 rolls) [9994 - 9997] ~ (9997-9994+1)/10000 = 0.0004 (~ once per 2500 rolls) [9998 - 9999] ~ (9999-9998+1)/10000 = 0.0002 (~ once per 5000 rolls) [10000] ~ 1/20000 = 0.00005 (~ once per 20 000 rolls)
sanity check: 0.98855+0.01+0.0008+0.0004+0.0002+0.00005 = 1 The client seeds are actually generated using javascript entirely on the client side. This is the part of the Javascript code that generates the client seed (can be found in the JS file http://static4.freebitco.in/min/main1403284658.js now but the name of the file changes when I make updates) : charSet = 'ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz0123456789'; var randomString = ''; for (var i = 0; i < 16; i++) { var randomPoz = Math.floor(Math.random() * charSet.length); randomString += charSet.substring(randomPoz,randomPoz+1); } $('#next_client_seed').val(randomString);
Ok, I don't know much about Javascript programming, but I googled a little, and it seems Math.random() is not so good for some things, still it is unclear whether it can give effects like natri got: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/5651789/is-math-random-cryptographically-securehttps://stackoverflow.com/questions/578700/how-trustworthy-is-javascripts-random-implementation-in-various-browsershttps://security.stackexchange.com/questions/20029/generate-cryptographically-strong-pseudorandom-numbers-in-javascriptThe best answer seems to be this: http://stackoverflow.com/a/18507748"Recent browsers expose window.crypto.getRandomValues() which is cryptographically strong" <--- can you use this?
|
BTC: 1DzAEtLoFxqmJoNH5ZYHyWxaSNYUGKf2S6
|
|
|
wetsuit (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 981
Merit: 1026
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:40:33 PM |
|
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000).
That last statement ("I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet") I referred to all of my plays on either freebitco.in and freedoge.co.in which total way over 2000 rolls so by calculating 1-(9993/10000)^2000+ the probability should be 75%+. Ok, lets assume prob for rolling 10k is 1/20000. But by simply checking the freebitco.in WEBSITE STATS, there was currently 538,271,966 played and 394.52490422 BTC earned, if we consider that you can ONLY win top roll price (huge undervaluation) and probability is 1/20000 to earn ONLY 0.1 BTC (undervalued) -> the expected earned value of BTC should be 2700 BTC (way more than 394). And if we say that all ppl were extremely unlucky we can check; variance=npq=538271996*1/20000*19999/20000 sqrt(var)=164 99.7% rule (3 std deviations): Still users should earn at LEAST: 2700-3*164= 2200 BTC, and this is with only top win of 0.1 btc. Those rolls include both free and multiply rolls, and multiply rolls are way more in number.
|
|
|
|
wetsuit (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 981
Merit: 1026
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:41:09 PM |
|
This is interesting, it is possible after all that pseudo-random numbers (for seeds) are not quite random. Why didn't you share full test results? It would be nice for someone to repeat it (though it's quite time consuming: 500 hours). (btw, I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet, probability of which should be over 75%...)
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000). [0 - 9885]: ~ 1/20000 + 9885/10000 = 0.98855 [9886 - 9985] ~ (9985-9886+1)/10000 = 0.01 (~ once per 100 rolls) [9986 - 9993] ~ (9993-9986+1)/10000 = 0.0008 (~ once per 1250 rolls) [9994 - 9997] ~ (9997-9994+1)/10000 = 0.0004 (~ once per 2500 rolls) [9998 - 9999] ~ (9999-9998+1)/10000 = 0.0002 (~ once per 5000 rolls) [10000] ~ 1/20000 = 0.00005 (~ once per 20 000 rolls)
sanity check: 0.98855+0.01+0.0008+0.0004+0.0002+0.00005 = 1 The client seeds are actually generated using javascript entirely on the client side. This is the part of the Javascript code that generates the client seed (can be found in the JS file http://static4.freebitco.in/min/main1403284658.js now but the name of the file changes when I make updates) : charSet = 'ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZabcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz0123456789'; var randomString = ''; for (var i = 0; i < 16; i++) { var randomPoz = Math.floor(Math.random() * charSet.length); randomString += charSet.substring(randomPoz,randomPoz+1); } $('#next_client_seed').val(randomString);
Ok, I don't know much about Javascript programming, but I googled a little, and it seems Math.random() is not so good for some things, still it is unclear whether it can give effects like natri got: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/5651789/is-math-random-cryptographically-securehttps://stackoverflow.com/questions/578700/how-trustworthy-is-javascripts-random-implementation-in-various-browsershttps://security.stackexchange.com/questions/20029/generate-cryptographically-strong-pseudorandom-numbers-in-javascriptThe best answer seems to be this: http://stackoverflow.com/a/18507748"Recent browsers expose window.crypto.getRandomValues() which is cryptographically strong" <--- can you use this? EDIT : Looked into that and seems like it is experimental so users might run into compatibility issues. I shall try to replace the current random string generator with a stronger one.
|
|
|
|
natri
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 7
Merit: 0
|
|
June 20, 2014, 07:51:33 PM |
|
But you said you made only 500 rolls? Or did you mean some bigger test? You need more rolls to get 3rd and 4th prizes (at least 1250-5000).
That last statement ("I've never rolled more than 9993 on any of my multiplier or regular rolls on neither faucet") I referred to all of my plays on either freebitco.in and freedoge.co.in which total way over 2000 rolls so by calculating 1-(9993/10000)^2000+ the probability should be 75%+. Ok, lets assume prob for rolling 10k is 1/20000. But by simply checking the freebitco.in WEBSITE STATS, there was currently 538,271,966 played and 394.52490422 BTC earned, if we consider that you can ONLY win top roll price (huge undervaluation) and probability is 1/20000 to earn ONLY 0.1 BTC (undervalued) -> the expected earned value of BTC should be 2700 BTC (way more than 394). And if we say that all ppl were extremely unlucky we can check; variance=npq=538271996*1/20000*19999/20000 sqrt(var)=164 99.7% rule (3 std deviations): Still users should earn at LEAST: 2700-3*164= 2200 BTC, and this is with only top win of 0.1 btc. Those rolls include both free and multiply rolls, and multiply rolls are way more in number. Alright, that explains it sufficiently enough then But why is there such a huge discrepancy when generating a roll. Notice the frequency of occurrences inside the 5001-6000 bracket. I am not trying to accuse or anything but the randomness procedure might well be flawed. Posting results: Number Expected Observed (O-E)^2/E 1-1000 50 45 0,5 1001-2000 50 42 1,28 2001-3000 50 50 0 3001-4000 50 39 2,42 4001-5000 50 52 0,08 5001-6000 50 77 14,58 6001-7000 50 51 0,02 7001-8000 50 41 1,62 8001-9000 50 42 1,28 9001-10000 50 61 2,42 EDIT: No proof or whatsoever, but I somehow also got a gut feeling that some individual numbers appear with way higher frequency than the others...
|
|
|
|
|