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Author Topic: Economic Devastation  (Read 503947 times)
RealBitcoin
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July 29, 2016, 12:06:35 PM
 #2661

So that implies that large parts of the world are in debts already, it's just a matter of time before everything comes crashing down. God help us...

I was just reading someday that even the elites want to introduce this guaranteed minimal income or basic income crap. Because people are poorer and poorer....

It would sound appealing to the masses, but it's consequences could be devastating.



It is a very irrational economic system we live in, let me sum it up how it works:

1) You need a government to protect the rights and property of corporations
2) The corporations need consumers that would spend their money a to buy their products and services
3) The government needs taxes to function
4) Corporations dont pay taxes
5) All taxes are paid by the productive people (small & medium businesses + the working class)
6) Corporations monopolize the industries , with the help of preferential legislation,as they expand
7) A lot of people are left without jobs and their businesses ruined because of the corporate expansion, and need welfare
8] The government goes into debt to pay the welfare and public services so it increases taxes
9) The productive people are paying more and more taxes to fund the government
10) Because of the ever increasing taxes they spend less and less, the corporate revenue drops, small businesses go bankrupt
11) Corporations monopolize and consolidate more and more to save costs resulting from revenue loss
12) Real net wages shrink (adjusted for inflation), the average income of people drops, more and more people go into debt or end up in welfare
13) Go back to step 7) and repeat.




Thus everyone gets poorer and poorer, including the govts that are in huge debts , except the corporations but they will fall in the end as well.

Everything is falling apart....


It's the economics of the devil. This needs to change or humans go extinct before 2100!


We need real capitalism now.

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July 29, 2016, 12:36:01 PM
 #2662

So that implies that large parts of the world are in debts already, it's just a matter of time before everything comes crashing down. God help us...

I was just reading someday that even the elites want to introduce this guaranteed minimal income or basic income crap. Because people are poorer and poorer....

It would sound appealing to the masses, but it's consequences could be devastating.



It is a very irrational economic system we live in, let me sum it up how it works:

1) You need a government to protect the rights and property of corporations
2) The corporations need consumers that would spend their money a to buy their products and services
3) The government needs taxes to function
4) Corporations dont pay taxes
5) All taxes are paid by the productive people (small & medium businesses + the working class)
6) Corporations monopolize the industries , with the help of preferential legislation,as they expand
7) A lot of people are left without jobs and their businesses ruined because of the corporate expansion, and need welfare
8] The government goes into debt to pay the welfare and public services so it increases taxes
9) The productive people are paying more and more taxes to fund the government
10) Because of the ever increasing taxes they spend less and less, the corporate revenue drops, small businesses go bankrupt
11) Corporations monopolize and consolidate more and more to save costs resulting from revenue loss
12) Real net wages shrink (adjusted for inflation), the average income of people drops, more and more people go into debt or end up in welfare
13) Go back to step 7) and repeat.




Thus everyone gets poorer and poorer, including the govts that are in huge debts , except the corporations but they will fall in the end as well.

Everything is falling apart....


It's the economics of the devil. This needs to change or humans go extinct before 2100!


We need real capitalism now.

Well made. It is detailed including the relationship between corporations, government and consumers or citizens.

The best solution to that is to establish corporate taxes like what our government did. That way there will be balance in the three sectors that have been mentioned.

But the problem arise when corporations don't  declare their income well but at least they pay tax.
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July 29, 2016, 12:54:18 PM
 #2663


The best solution to that is to establish corporate taxes like what our government did. That way there will be balance in the three sectors that have been mentioned.

But the problem arise when corporations don't  declare their income well but at least they pay tax.
No, that is the worst solution possible, the corporations will just move to another country. What you suggest will just escalate what I just described.

Taxes need to be lowered, for everyone. And regulations need to be reduced for everyone. This way the consumer can spend, and  small businesses could reappear.

Escalating this bullshit is just kicking the can down the road, you don't build a forest by cutting down big trees, but by letting small trees grow.

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July 29, 2016, 05:33:55 PM
 #2664

Can anyone help me debate the 3 commies on the RBE thread, it seems like they are invulnerable to logic:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5373.2460

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July 29, 2016, 07:08:51 PM
 #2665


The best solution to that is to establish corporate taxes like what our government did. That way there will be balance in the three sectors that have been mentioned.

But the problem arise when corporations don't  declare their income well but at least they pay tax.
No, that is the worst solution possible, the corporations will just move to another country. What you suggest will just escalate what I just described.

Taxes need to be lowered, for everyone. And regulations need to be reduced for everyone. This way the consumer can spend, and  small businesses could reappear.

Escalating this bullshit is just kicking the can down the road, you don't build a forest by cutting down big trees, but by letting small trees grow.

Best solution or not I believe that Xester 'solution' is what we are going to see happen going forward. I think I wrote up-thread somewhere how I believe it will play out. Here it is.


Government response to this is will not be to let the system collapse but instead to "put down more concrete". As earnings are eroded governments will simply move on a worldwide basis to supplement the incomes of the newly impoverished masses via redistribution and welfare programs. A small part of this redistribution will occur in the form of significantly higher taxes. However, the lions share will come from increased government debt.

As governments become insolvent they will find markets unwilling to service debt in their home currencies and will be forced to transition their debt to a supranational one (probably SDR's). This will be the only way to continue supportive handouts to dependent populations. Think Greece but on a global scale. Going forward this scenario would result not in immediate catastrophic collapse but rather a slow progressive grind with individual countries going into crisis at different times while being forced to surrender sovereignty.

I believe we are witnessing the gradual but inevitable death of nationalism and the modern nation state.


I expect that the rich will be increasingly unable to escape taxation going forward. The wealthy will be tracked and taxed while safe havens and tax shelters are increasingly shut down.
Millionaires will be hit hard and even the billionaires take a small hit. As national sovereignty is ceded there will increasingly be no place for them to go.

This will only stall potential collapse. Down the road we will find ourselves with a massive and inefficient global welfare state that is stagnate and in constant danger of failure. At this point humanity will desperately need a paradigm shift. I believe the knowledge age as outlined by Anonymint in the OP represents such a shift.

My expectation and hope is that the the current system will survive long enough for the knowledge age to really take off and simply grow us out of the morass. As more people transition themselves from the welfare state to the knowledge age the risk of collapse will decline as the overall size and cost of the welfare state declines to an insignificant portion of the economy.

The trend towards future population reduction is already well underway. It seems likely that further population reduction will occur spontaneously as a byproduct of the status quo.    
http://www.economist.com/news/21589151-crashing-fertility-will-transform-asian-family-baby-boom-bust



...

Wealth will increasingly seek to hide by moving into tax havens in other countries. It will also be increasingly hunted. Pressure applied in the name of shutting down tax havens will be one more tool to drive political consolidation and weaken the nation state. Those running from the tax man will increasingly be identified, caught and punished. Options for legal evasion like you mentioned above will be shut down or restricted to a even narrower elite.

Tax havens that survive will likely be rare and limited to select jurisdictions where citizenship is hard to obtain. These areas are likely to be funded by income taxes (there will likely be no escape for wage earners anywhere) In these havens citizens will likely be exempt from inheritance, capital gains, and wealth taxes. This will allow the billionaire class to safely run their interests from afar.

The lesser wealthy will be increasingly consumed via taxation in their home nations. The coming wave of socialism and public anger will drive most of them back into the ranks of government dependents. This will serve the purpose of sating public rage, destroying potential local opposition, and further undermining the economics of nation states thus increasing the dependence on debt that will soon be issued by bodies and governed by laws under the jurisdiction of those same tax havens.

Rather then spontaneous collapse. I believe the proper model is that of controlled demolition.

RealBitcoin I agree with your critiques of our current economic system. However, our current economic trajectory appears to me to be fixed something to be survived rather then changed.

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July 29, 2016, 07:49:20 PM
 #2666


Best solution or not I believe that Xester 'solution' is what we are going to see happen going forward. I think I wrote up-thread somewhere how I believe it will play out. Here it is.

The millionaires will be gone probably in 10 years, they will either become billionaires or become wiped out in the next crisises.

It's really not hard to become wiped out if all their portfolio is in worthless stocks, bonds and real estate. Not to mention if their banks and brokers become wiped out.

Say they got 10,000,000$ at 3 different brokers, it doesnt even matter what portfolio they have, if the brokers go bankrupt, it's all gone. The insurance doesnt cover shit, and the broker can do bail-in if they are bankrupt.

I just hope the millionaire class discovers bitcoin ASAP to save their wealth, we need them more than billionaires.


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August 02, 2016, 09:01:55 PM
Last edit: August 02, 2016, 09:21:58 PM by CoinCube
 #2667

Quote
I have a suggestion for a 42% per annum fixed income investment by lending your USD at Bitfinex:

This exchange lost 1,500 BTC in a hack last year.
http://cointelegraph.com/news/breaking-bitfinex-hot-wallet-hacked-bitcoins-stolen

Interest rate is probably so high out of a concern the company is under capitalized.

I also saw this post a while ago about strange things that go on at that exchange.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=660948.msg7444557#msg7444557

The combination is enough for me to stay far far away.
 

Sad news in bitcoinland today. My condolences to anyone who gets burned.

Here is another MatTheCat story about a possibly shady/dangerous exchange.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1559553.msg15656643#msg15656643

As I stated in my response to Kraken, none of my other accounts have been compromised (ever). Only Kraken, which makes me think that the rat is to be found under the floorboards of Kraken itself.

"ipsa scientia potestas est" - Sir Francis Bacon

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August 03, 2016, 03:05:49 AM
 #2668

...

I am beginning to think that the only way to escape from the claws of BIG .GOV is some kind of version of Going Galt.  Hiding your assets if/when it becomes necessary (part of the motivation of many here to get into BTC in the first place).

I concur that it is going to get more difficult in the medium-term to escape higher taxation, particularly for the Upper Middle Class and the lower ranks of the Upper Class.  The more I have looked at Peru for example (our "Plan B" country as that is where my wife has family and we have our business) looks less and less attractive as time goes by.

It may be that iamnotback's ideas of a Knowledge Age might be an escape, but I have not put in the time & effort to try to completely understand it, and I think it might not apply well to my own circumstances.

SOME kind of bad event, or series of them, is likely coming IMO.  I still believe in preparation and diversification.
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August 12, 2016, 07:22:16 AM
Last edit: August 12, 2016, 07:34:07 AM by CoinCube
 #2669

Nice article on gold today in ZeroHedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-11/one-simple-reason-why-gold-can-still-jump-50

It touches on a number of concepts discussed in this thread including the limitations of passive capital. Overall it is quite bullish on gold. I agree with the overall analysis.

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August 13, 2016, 07:39:05 AM
 #2670

Devastation ahead or will humans find a way to cope?

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August 13, 2016, 11:09:10 AM
 #2671

Nice article on gold today in ZeroHedge

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-11/one-simple-reason-why-gold-can-still-jump-50

It touches on a number of concepts discussed in this thread including the limitations of passive capital. Overall it is quite bullish on gold. I agree with the overall analysis.
Well that's Zerohedge. Nothing new under the sun. I have to warn you, though: reading too much Zerohedge might end up with you building a nuclear fallout shelter in your garden.

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana.
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August 15, 2016, 11:57:01 PM
 #2672

I have to warn you, though: reading too much Zerohedge might end up with you building a nuclear fallout shelter in your garden.
It's called sweat equity;)

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 16, 2016, 12:37:55 AM
 #2673

Two years old thread about economic devastation, and everything is still the same. If I remember good, stories about economic devastation are for decades among us. I'm not afraid and I think all economic crisis are just manipulation. Certain people make this kind of manipulation to gain profit, and to establish new order that suits there needs.
Also this kind of stories are here to make people live in constant fear, and when people live in fear of future they dont try to rebel against the system.
World is one big stage, and we are just little players on the board.

 
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August 16, 2016, 01:37:27 AM
 #2674

The thread may be two years old, but we have only just crossed the turning point of 2015.75 and alot has happened since then.

Don't be afraid of the future, we will have our chance to rise from the ashes as free people or as slaves.

Fight for what you believe in, social media is an extremely powerful tool for exposing how the filth operates behind the scenes, and even a monkey can use it.

There will be a time for civil disobedience, and you will know when that is because the system will suffocate every aspect of your life.

Only if you allow it, don't die on your knees.
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August 16, 2016, 11:08:53 PM
 #2675

Well that's Zerohedge. Nothing new under the sun. I have to warn you, though: reading too much Zerohedge might end up with you building a nuclear fallout shelter in your garden.

 Cheesy long on shovels and cement.

They say even a stopped watch is correct twice a day. The challenge as always is figuring out exactly when that is.

As my expertise in such predictions is limited I have adopted a relatively simple strategy of dividing my resources between gold, bitcoin, and debt payments at a fixed ratio. A strategy of minimal regret if you will.

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August 21, 2016, 10:48:56 PM
 #2676

http://www.worldinvisible.com/library/tozer/5j00.0010/5j00.0010.11.htm

"I am among those who believe that our Western civilization is on its way to perishing. It has many commendable qualities, most of which it has borrowed from the Christian ethic, but it lacks the element of moral wisdom that would give it permanence. Future historians will record that we of the twentieth century had intelligence enough to create a great civilization but not the moral wisdom to preserve it.

...

Sin is always an act of wrong judgment. To commit a sin a man must for the moment believe that things are different from what they really are; he must confound values; he must see the moral universe out of focus; he must accept a lie as truth and see truth as a lie; he must ignore the signs on the highway and drive with his eyes shut; he must act as if he had no soul and was not accountable for his moral choices.

Sin is never a thing to be proud of. No act is wise that ignores remote consequences, and sin always does. Sin sees only today, or at most tomorrow; never the day after tomorrow, next month or next year. Death and judgment are pushed aside as if they did not exist."

-A.W. Tozer 1897-1963

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August 21, 2016, 11:18:15 PM
 #2677

http://www.worldinvisible.com/library/tozer/5j00.0010/5j00.0010.11.htm

"I am among those who believe that our Western civilization is on its way to perishing. It has many commendable qualities, most of which it has borrowed from the Christian ethic, but it lacks the element of moral wisdom that would give it permanence. Future historians will record that we of the twentieth century had intelligence enough to create a great civilization but not the moral wisdom to preserve it.

...

Sin is always an act of wrong judgment. To commit a sin a man must for the moment believe that things are different from what they really are; he must confound values; he must see the moral universe out of focus; he must accept a lie as truth and see truth as a lie; he must ignore the signs on the highway and drive with his eyes shut; he must act as if he had no soul and was not accountable for his moral choices.

Sin is never a thing to be proud of. No act is wise that ignores remote consequences, and sin always does. Sin sees only today, or at most tomorrow; never the day after tomorrow, next month or next year. Death and judgment are pushed aside as if they did not exist."

-A.W. Tozer 1897-1963


It was one of our founding fathers (USA) that said words to the effect of that our country could only remain free if we were a "moral people".

Oh well.  Looks like we are very close to "America v. 2"

Enjoy...
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August 22, 2016, 04:13:29 PM
Last edit: August 22, 2016, 04:41:22 PM by CoinCube
 #2678

It was one of our founding fathers (USA) that said words to the effect of that our country could only remain free if we were a "moral people".


"Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." - Benjamin Franklin

“Is there no virtue among us? If there be not, we are in a wretched situation. No theoretical checks, no form of government, can render us secure. To suppose that any form of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue in the people, is a chimerical idea. If there be sufficient virtue and intelligence in the community, it will be exercised in the selection of these men; so that we do not depend upon their virtue, or put confidence in our rulers, but in the people who are to choose them.” - James Madison


“Of all the dispositions and habits which lead to political prosperity, religion and morality are indispensable supports.” - George Washington


Quote from: Earl Taylor
Modern Americans have long since forgotten the heated and sometimes violent debates which took place in the thirteen colonies between 1775 and 1776 over the issue of morality. For many thousands of Americans the big question of independence hung precariously on the single, slender thread of whether or not the people were sufficiently “virtuous and moral” to govern themselves. Self-government was generally referred to as “republicanism,” and it was universally acknowledged that a corrupt and selfish people could never make the principles of republicanism operate successfully.

https://nccs.net/2015-03-only-a-virtuous-people-are-capable-of-freedom

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September 05, 2016, 11:20:25 AM
 #2679

What a useful thread, really! I have read that soon we'll suffer from the financial crisis that will be the worst the world has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. By accident, I've found a great article on this topic -  http://planetaryproject.com/global_problems/economic/ . Hope, you'll find it useful too!
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September 17, 2016, 09:52:48 AM
Last edit: September 18, 2016, 10:41:20 PM by iamnotback
 #2680

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally

Together these are quite simply the most insightful piece of economic theory I have ever read.

If the author is right and I think he is we are all in the midst of a tragedy of epic proportions...

I (AnonyMint aka Shelby Moore III) want to again thank CoinCube for appreciating my original essays. I haven't been able to write and think at that level lately due to illness and chaotic unraveling of my life (finances, etc) as a result.

Today I wrote something which I think explains some of the frustration I have had in my life in terms trying to communicate on forums. I am responding to Eric S Raymond, who claims he has a 166 IQ.

Quote from: ESR aka Eric S Raymond
Unsurprising. I too can only perceive one undifferentiated stratum above the one I’m in

Could that be an aliasing phenomenon? Analogous to your example of constructing more complex generative models matching subsets while playing the game Zendo, isn’t it possible that a higher capacity thinker may construct more complex relationships which are invisible to someone who can’t sample the model space at the Nyquist limit of the frequency of model instantiation of the higher genius stratum. You’ll agree on the conclusion (subset) with the higher genius stratum, but this doesn’t detect whether the higher genius employed a more complex model to arrive at the same conclusion. To test this hypothesis, I considered the scenario when the higher genius’ model generates an answer contrary to your conclusion. I’ve experienced this where my conclusions are labeled wrong because the others are unable to load the model that is in my head, and I am unable to communicate the model to them. The only way I am able to get them to acquiesce is where I can show an example failure scenario for their conclusions. Invariably in a group politics setting, they will dismiss this case as insignificant, because they can’t understand its frequency of occurrence in my more complex model. So I am again unable to convince them and they learn only by failure in the market; and by then they blame the failure on other incidental issues because again they could not model the phenomenon in the higher complexity model. The only instances where I succeed to win the argument is when I can convey a slamdunk failure mode of their conclusions (a point sample in the Shannon-Nyquist space) which was illuminated to me by my model. Yet they still haven’t grasped the model so they go flailing around looking for other conclusions than the one I provided. That is indeed aliasing error. So the higher genius is likely to say nothing instead, because he knows it is useless to speak. Note I doubt I am even a Fowler class genius, because of my underdeveloped language capabilities. Go figure?

Listening to Freeman Dyson he seems mostly undifferentiated to me. And interestingly (noted in the Charlie Rose interview) he is somewhat reserved when he speaks as if I can sense he is carefully choosing what the audience could appreciate. Except for example I can detect he is thinking about much more complex relationships, when he says, “I don’t have much faith in predictions. Science is organized on predictability…scientists arrange things in an experiment to be unpredictable as possible and then do the experiment to see what will happen. You might say that if something is predictable, then it is not science”. Note the logical implication of the long-tail undecidability of science in the juxtaposition of his opening phrase with the ending one. Whoever didn’t detect that, is likely not a genius. Smiley

Btw, I had another example of the above described phenomenon this week.

And make sure you read the "Meta" verbiage at the end of my comment immediately above the linked one. Wink

P.S. I posted the above quoted comment at ESR's blog under the pseudonymous author name ‘vacuous’ and with the email address submitted as, “gobbledygook@ethereal.unbounded”.
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